Program & Posters

A/Prof Boulter has spent the last decade building and supporting climate adaptation research and practice in Australia. Sarah’s research focuses on the impacts of climate change and building capacity to adapt. She has worked with the health, biodiversity, defence and infrastructure sectors to support, develop and implement climate change adaptation strategies. Before joining the University of Tasmania, Sarah worked for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARFand was part of the team that developed CoastAdapt, Australia’s first online climate adaptation decision-support and knowledge platform to support coastal local governments.

Pep is a Chief Research Scientist in CSIRO Environment and the Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project, a global network of scientists that studies and integrates knowledge of greenhouses gases to understand the evolution of Earth’s biogeochemical cycles and how to manage them to mitigate climate change. He is also a project leader in the National Environmental Science Program – Climate Systems Hub.

Pep’s work focuses on highly integrative and interdisciplinary research on the global and regional analyses of trends, drivers and budgets of the sources and sinks of the main greenhouse gases. He also studies the size and vulnerability of earth’s carbon pools, carbon-climate feedbacks, and pathways to stabilize the climate, including nature-based solutions and negative emissions technologies. More recently, he has also focused on abrupt ecosystem changes and collapse due to rapid climate change, including the role of fire.

Pep has been a contributor to the United Nations - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the last 15 years, and to assessments of the World Meteorological Organization. He is a fellow member of the American Geophysical Union, and Reuters named him as the 8th most influential climate scientist in the world in 2021. He has published over 200 research papers, edited 14 books and special journal issues. Pep is also a keen science communicator through his engagement in national and international traditional media, social media, and evidence-based journalism in The Conversation.

Ben Newell is Professor of Cognitive Psychology in the School of Psychology at UNSW Sydney, and Director of the recently established UNSW Institute for Climate Risk & Response. His research focuses on the cognitive processes underlying judgment, choice and decision-making. His role in the new Institute is to drive an interdisciplinary research agenda bringing together expertise from behavioural science, climate science, economics and governance to address the risks and opportunities of climate change. He has published multiple articles at the intersection of psychology and climate change, with particular focus on the understanding of uncertainty and risk. Ben is lead author of the books Straight Choices: The Psychology of Decision Making, and Open Minded: A Search for Truth about the Unconscious Mind. Ben is a member of the Academic Advisory Panel of the Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian Government (BETA), and the Chief Medical Officer’s advisory group for the National Health and Climate Strategy.

Founded in education, Kuma Kaaru (One Blood) brings stories and tradition to life through training and performance.

Operating on Kaurna Yarta (Land), the Kuma Kaaru team take pride in their Cultural Awareness training for organisations and schools, performing Welcome to Country, Smoking Ceremonies and Cultural dance.

Jack Kanya Kudnuitya Buckskin​
A proud Kaurna and Narungga Man

Susan Close is the State Member for Port Adelaide and was elected on the 11th of February 2012.

Susan has lived on the LeFevre Peninsula for twenty years with Declan and their two children and is passionate about representing the people in her community.

Before entering Parliament, Susan was an executive in the SA Environment Department.  She previously worked at the University of Adelaide running student services and holds a PhD from Flinders University.

Susan held several portfolios during the Weatherill Labor Government, including being Minister for Education and Minister for Innovation and Automotive Transformation.

Susan Elizabeth Close MP
Deputy Premier of South Australia
Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science
Minister for Defence and Space Industries
Minister for Climate, Environment and Water
Member for Port Adelaide

Dr Judy Lawrence is Adjunct Professor at the Climate Change Research Institute, Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and Director of PS Consulting Ltd. Judy’s research and practice focus on climate change adaptation, sea-level rise, coastal hazards, river and water resource risk management, land use management and soil conservation. She is an active member of the global decision making under deep uncertainty network. Judy works with a range of regional and district councils, water agencies, central government agencies and supervises post graduate students.

Judy was Co-Author of the MfE Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance (2017), Co-Chaired the Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (2018), Governance Domain Lead for the first NZ National Climate Change Risk Assessment (2020), Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group II Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Chapter 11 Australasia (2022).

Judy was a recipient of the Prime Minister’s Science Prize 2019 Melting Ice and Rising Seas Team 2019. She has a PhD in Public Policy on the adequacy of institutions for climate change adaptation and a Masters degree in Geomorphology. Judy is a New Zealand Climate Change Commissioner.

Victoria is a Partner in Deloitte’s Climate & Sustainability team specialises in resilience, climate change risk, adaptation and disaster risk reduction. As a social and environmental scientist, Victoria leads multidisciplinary teams to support communities and organisations to navigate some of their most pressing climate change and resilience challenges.

She has extensive experience across Australia and the Asia-Pacific Region developing resilience and climate change strategies as a Strategy Partner for 100 Resilient Cities, a program that developed resilience strategies for 100 cities around the world.

Prior to joining Deloitte, Victoria was the technical lead for New Zealand’s first national climate change risk assessment, which included extensive consideration of risk and resilience across all domains: environment, human, economic, built environment and governance. Victoria is an experienced facilitator and has led numerous multidisciplinary climate risk workshops in different cultural contexts across Australia and abroad.​

Paula is a principal environmental, social scientist with the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere based in Hamilton, New Zealand. 

She has research experience (20 years +) in the social impacts and implications of climate change, climate change adaptation strategies and engagement practices, and system approaches to framing complexity and decision-making. 

She was a co-author of the NZ Coastal Hazards Guidance for Local Government, the social domain lead for the first NZ National Climate Change Risk Assessment, contributing author to the IPCC 5th and 6th Assessment reports and leads NIWA’s climate change impacts and implications research programme.

A role for Australia in global and regional adaptation efforts

Australia’s renewed commitment to supporting regional and global climate adaptation efforts is being generally well-received. Yet to engage fully in these contexts means to both share Australian expertise and learn from our adaptive      Tue 1_2omneighbours.

To put words like collaboration and partnership into practice for global adaptation efforts, a concentrated effort is needed to link and translate knowledge for policy- and practice-relevance. There are several examples of existing Australian programs that demonstrate how layered commitments to enhancing regional adaptation have been successful through a focus on knowledge-building and translation. Taking this further to build systemic links through these programs across Australian government entities, and with other bilateral and multilateral partners, would better leverage existing investments.

Australia’s role in supporting regional adaptation would be enhanced with the development of a national entity dedicated to climate adaptation financing, with appropriate resourcing and skill-sets for critical appraisal of how adaptation fits with and within Australian development and other programs. Further focus on collaborative engagement processes as part of climate adaptation investment would continue to build both diplomatic and practical links with our region and the world, and lead to better cross-pollination of adaptation learnings, for everyone’s benefit.

A national adaptation reform agenda

After several decades of the “climate wars” Australia has an adaptation deficit. ICEDS analysis reveals the need for a national adaptation reform agenda.  This agenda needs to mobilise all governments and provide the nation with coherent policy architecture, drawing on best practice in the design and execution of institutional reforms. Far-sighted and nationally coordinated reforms are needed that will work legally and practically within the federation. An adaptation agenda cannot be centralised, instead it must engage communities, industries, and government agencies across the continent in exploring and executing diverse adaptation options, suited to their conditions and circumstances. A national reform agenda should be principles based and target diverse policy areas, including land use planning, agriculture and food security, water resources, coastal zone policies, infrastructure, building and engineering standards, education and research, disaster preparation, transport and communications, and health and justice.

This talk will explore how Australia could use the models and processes of cooperative Federalism to develop and execute a reform agenda. Australian has experience in negotiating far-reaching reforms, which enable national coordination and local execution. For example, all Australian governments adopted principles-based water reforms in 1994 and again in 2004. Like climate adaptation, responsibilities for water are dispersed across numerous policy, management, and regulatory agencies. Without a comprehensive, integrated, reform agenda, climate adaptation risks being driven through ad-hoc, reactive or crisis driven initiatives.

Uncorking the adaptation bottle, learning from an exploratory workshop in north-central Victoria

1.    Dr Michael Spencer, Monash Business School, Monash University (lead)

2.    Assoc. Prof. Janet Stanley, Melbourne Climate Futures, University of Melbourne

3.    Dr Franz Wohlegezogen, Department of Management, University of Melbourne

The constraint posed by governance, institutions and policy to human adaptation to climate change, in all areas of the world, has been noted by the IPCC[1]. This project emerged as part of a broader project comparing climate adaptation governance in Australia, the United States and China supported by the National Academy of Public Administration (USA) and the Institute of Global Public Policy at Fudan University (China). The Australian team sought to explore what was happening at the local level. It brought together 30 people working on or affected by climate change in the Goulburn Broken Catchment. Participants included municipal environmental managers, councillors (two Mayors), people working in State agencies responsible for adaptation policy, emergency response and infrastructure, community organisations, the Catchment Management Authority, a chamber of commerce and a student. This paper will summarise results from the workshop and subsequent interaction with the participants. The message from the workshop is that locals had existing relationships that could be assembled under an appropriate governance structure. At present, there is low capacity in local areas for planning, implementation and monitoring of adaptation, compounded by initiatives as well as insufficient support from higher levels of government. Despite many high-quality adaptation documents and plans, implementation has not automatically followed. An appropriate governance structure would need to be participative, collaborative and adaptive to evolving needs. It would require a long-term commitment and finding new ways that would empower communities to engage, make difficult decisions and build collaborative action at a local level.

A national climate risk assessment and adaptation plan for Australia – insights to date

Climate change is a whole-of-economy, society and environmental challenge that affects all Australians. Our climate has already and will continue to change in the coming decades. The consequences and impacts of this change on our social, built, environment and economic domains are already occurring and are expected to increase and intensify in the coming decades. Support is needed for Australian communities, businesses, and industries to adapt to a warmer climate and increased extreme weather events. Decision-makers at all levels of government, businesses and communities need appropriate tools and information to make effective decisions to respond to these impacts. 

The Australian Government is taking strong action to protect Australians from increasing and more devastating climate events by investing in a new National Climate Adaptation and Risk program. Backed by $27.4 million in funding over 2 years under the 2023–24 Budget, the program will deliver Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment and a National Adaptation Plan. 

The scoping of the risk assessment started in 2022, led by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, in partnership with the Australian Climate Service (ACS).  

The risk assessment proposes to: 

i) be based on extensive consultation across all levels of government, industries and communities; 

ii) provide a nationally consistent method of a shared national framework;  

iii) be an evidence base of Australia’s climate risks, hazards and their likely impacts; 

iv) be communicated in a way that will help inform policy and planning; and 

iv) set robust governance and methodological foundations for future national risk assessments, while allowing for the process and architecture to evolve with each future assessment.  

The adaptation plan will use the risk assessment findings to build an agreed, nationally consistent pathway that prioritises Australia’s adaptation actions and opportunities.  It will provide guidance on the national response, including how we adapt to the risks, scale up our adaptation efforts and build our national resilience to climate impacts. 

Building on work already done by the Australian, state and territory governments over many years, the risk assessment and adaptation plan will deliver a shared national framework to inform Australia’s priorities for climate adaptation and resilience, and enable consistent monitoring of climate risk across Australia. 

This presentation will outline the methodology developed for the NCRA to date, and insights gained through the pilot and stakeholder engagement process and outline the high level approach to the adaptation plan.  

Integrating climate adaptation and disaster preparedness

Internationally there is strong support for integrating climate adaptation and disaster preparedness. These are not two separate fields of endeavour but part of a critical spectrum of planning for the future. However, without anticipatory policies and as disasters worsen, there are increasing risks that we will continue to invest the vast majority of our resources in response and recovery. Instead, we must make it much easier for communities to implement climate-ready resilience strategies – a much more cost-effective approach than recovery from disasters. Right now a community wanting to implement Nature-based Solutions to flood resilience, including benefits to biodiversity and soil erosion, requires State and Territory regulatory approvals for planning, environment and water to have been obtained before a project can be registered. The multitude of regulations and associated approvals delay the implementation of essential solutions to flood resilience which could save people’s lives, property, and natural assets. We need integrated planning systems focussed on outcomes that span land use planning, disasters, agriculture, environment, biodiversity, water resources, infrastructure, and building and engineering standards. For this, we would need far-reaching legal reforms enabling positive initiatives such as nature-based solutions while constraining inappropriate urban development in high-risk areas, including those prone to flooding, extreme bush fires or sea level rise. Preventative planning approaches may require limiting individual property rights due to the known risk factors that are intensifying in a changing climate. Integrated adaptation and disaster preparedness is more than a technical policy development exercise. It involves engaging communities in the changing realities of climate-driven risk and empowering and supporting them to make positive decisions.

Long-term research capabilities to support adaptive and transformative governance

Australia needs substantial investments in research to develop innovative responses to the intensifying threats posed by climate change. The recent floods, bushfires and droughts provide evidence of the escalating social and environmental costs. New approaches are required, yet the scale of the research investment required is inadequate. Like a war, climate change is a threat to people, social stability, quality of life, the economy, and infrastructure. We need modern and effective ways of defending ourselves from the impacts of ever increasing natural hazards. For instance, we should investigate interventions, which could redirect the trajectories of cyclones or prevent catastrophic bushfires.

Over the next decade, the Government will invest $3.4 billion to establish the Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator to deliver the capabilities needed by the Australian Defence Force. A comparable fund is needed to defend Australia from intensifying natural hazards, and to deliver meaningful adaptation strategies. Given the scale of the threats, existing funding of strategic research is insufficient. Transformative adaptation options are not being investigated because institutions mostly fund incremental research.

Australia needs to commit hundreds of millions of dollars to adaptation research, with new institutional structures to overcome the lack of coordination. New arrangements should build on previous Commonwealth initiatives tackling national priorities, such as Land and Water Australia and the National Water Commission. To build research capacity, the Commonwealth should invest in thousands of well-funded PhD scholarships on disaster risk reduction, transformative adaptation and regional resilience. These proposals are critical to developing civil defence capabilities, enabling transformative governance and avoiding costly future problems. A failure to plan for these known threats is to plan for failure. 

A database of options for climate-effective management of threatened species and protected places  

Conservation management efforts necessarily requires a shift from considering intervention and management in a static climate to one that must consider adapting to both long-term climate change and short-term extreme events and seasonal conditions. To aid climate adaptation efforts, we present decision-support tools that contribute to climate-effective conservation of threatened species and protected places in Australia. We introduce our growing database of adaptation interventions for species and ecological communities to provide managers with options for on-ground action in the face of climate change. We place the process of selecting adaptation interventions on the roadmap of a broader adaptation journey and share approaches to incorporate and consider the broader implications of implementing on-ground adaptation for biodiversity conservation. As a result of co-developing these products alongside conservation practitioners in Australia, we share practical examples demonstrating how conservation management can incorporate a climate lens using our research outputs.  


Sarah Boulter2, Jason Hartog1, Alistair Hobday1, Jess Melbourne-Thomas1, Ingrid van Putten1  

1 CSIRO Environment, Hobart Tasmania 7000, AUSTRALIA 
2 University of Tasmania, Hobart Tasmania 7000, AUSTRALIA  
The Climate Systems Hub is funded by the Australian Government under the National Environmental Science Program. 

Integrating scenario planning and conservation action planning to support climate adaptation 

Scenario planning is increasingly used as a robust means of incorporating future climate uncertainty into climate adaptation planning. It typically involves the identification of multiple plausible climate futures, which are used to generate divergent future narratives and inform strategic planning. Despite its benefits, key challenges in the development and uptake of scenario planning remain. These include its complexity, the technical capability and resources required, subjectivity and transparency of methods, integration with established planning approaches already in use, and translation of scenarios into actions suitable for implementation. At Parks Victoria, Conservation Action Planning (CAP) forms the basis for strategic landscape-scale conservation planning, and plans have been developed or are in development for 18 biogeographic landscapes covering Victoria’s terrestrial and marine parks and reserves. More recently, Parks Victoria has also adopted the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework to address the transformational ecological change expected due to climate change. In this presentation we describe the development of a climate futures approach to scenario planning, how it is being used to support the CAP program and RAD planning at Parks Victoria, and how our approach addresses some of the aforementioned challenges. We present key elements of our approach, including the use of computational methods to objectively identify plausible, divergent climate futures at a landscape scale, and the use of structured, hierarchical elicitation to facilitate scenario narrative development and translation of narratives into climate-ready management goals and actions through stress-testing existing and proposed plans. We also provide an example of scenario planning for a marine and coastal landscape in Victoria, demonstrating how our approach integrates with well-established CAP processes to support identification of climate-ready goals, no-regret actions, and potential pathways under the RAD framework. This highlights the benefits that can be achieved by incorporating scenario planning into the conservation planning of parks and reserves. 

Mathew Berg
Parks Victoria

Climate ready refuges: Can artificial refuges support the recovery and survival of the Kangaroo Island dunnart following a severe bushfire event? 
 

Availability of habitat refuges in burnt and degraded habitats has been demonstrated to be important for survival of threatened species following bushfires. Hollow logs are slow to develop and there has been a significant reduction in their availability due to habitat modification, climatic change and fire regimes. Hollows provide shelter, breeding and nesting habitat, as well as protection. Catastrophic bushfires burnt ~131,455 ha of native vegetation and impacted 48% of the western and central regions of Kangaroo Island in 2019-20. This included >96% of the core habitat of the Endangered Kangaroo Island (KI) dunnart. The central focus of this study was to address the loss of habitat refuges and complex understory as a result of increased frequency and scale of fire events. We provide preliminary information on the thermal suitability, fire resistance and use of artificial refuges installed for the Kangaroo Island dunnart. We trialled corrugated iron sheeting and terracotta tiles and tested their thermal suitability at burnt and unburnt sites within known KI dunnart habitat. Camera traps were used to monitor KI dunnart activity at artificial refuges. To test fire resistance of the artificial refuges, we installed refuges immediately prior to a prescribed burn in open and closed canopy habitats. Temperatures were monitored outside (ambient), directly beneath refuges and within depressions (nests) under refuges. During the first 2 months, we observed that KI dunnarts visited a significant proportion (53%) of refuges. At burnt sites (n = 20) 70% of refuges were visited and 35% were entered, whilst at unburnt sites 35% of refuges (n = 20) were visited and 25% entered. Preliminary findings from the prescribed burn show that the corrugated iron sheeting was the better of the two materials trialled, and maintained its integrity when exposed to fire. Lower temperatures than ambient were recorded under both refuge types, with corrugated iron sheeting in open habitats being the best in terms of providing a thermal barrier. Findings support that habitat augmentation may play a key role in providing critical habitat refuges for the Kangaroo Island dunnart and could aid the rapid recolonisation and survival following prescribed burning and bushfires. Targeted on-ground actions are required to reverse loss of critical habitat elements and ensure habitat and biodiversity are climate ready and continue to thrive. 

Funding: This study was supported by the World Wide Fund for Nature – Australia ‘Eyes on Recovery’ project.   

Jennings, P. R., Byrne-Willey, H. R., Gledhill, K., and Bandiera, M.
Kangaroo Island Landscape Board, Kingscote, Kangaroo Island, South Australia

Environmental information on a range of time scales can assist conservation planning. 

Historical patterns, combined with near and long-term environmental change all affect the success of conservation actions. The change in climate will not be smooth, and extreme events and seasonal conditions must be considered in planning to improve long-term outcomes. As part of a Climate Systems NESP project, developed flexible Situational Reports to deliver environmental information (e.g. ENSO phase, rainfall, temperature) on a range of time scales (historical, seasonal prediction, and long-term) for several spatial management units across Australia, including NRM regions, IBCRA, and BOM weather regions. The presentation and format of these data has been refined in testing with end users across Australia. We find that contextual information on each climate variable is important to include, and that the experience of end users adds considerable value to these reports. In combination with adaptation planning, we will present evidence to show that Situational Reports improve the capacity of conservation decision makers to plan the timing, type and intensity of interventions. We present a range of intervention use-cases that were co-developed in case studies. Ongoing delivery of these Reports will assist many decision makers to maximise the benefit from conservation interventions across Australia.
 

Jason Hartog1, Alistair Hobday1, Claire Mason1, Sarah Boulter2, Jess Melbourne-Thomas1, Ingrid van Putten1  

1 CSIRO Environment, Hobart Tasmania 7000, AUSTRALIA 

2 University of Tasmania, Hobart Tasmania 7000, AUSTRALIA  

Update on development of Australia’s first National Health and Climate Strategy 
 

Climate change poses a significant threat to the health and wellbeing of Australians. Its detrimental impact on human health is already being experienced in Australia, including through heat stress, changing rainfall patterns and climate-related air pollution. Catastrophic events, such as the 2019-20 Black Summer Bushfires and the 2022 Eastern Australia Floods, highlight the growing toll climate change is likely to have on people’s health and lives. 

The Australian Government has committed to developing Australia’s first National Health and Climate Strategy, in recognition of the urgent need to reduce emissions from the health system and to support the community to be better prepared for the health impacts of climate change. The Strategy will identify priority areas for action to address the impact of climate change on the health system and ensure that all Australians continue to access good quality health care.  

A fundamental component of the Strategy will involve outlining how the health system must adapt to manage the impacts of climate change and ensure that all Australians are able to continue to access good quality health and aged care. 

This presentation will form part of the public consultation process to develop the Strategy. Key objectives of the presentation will be to (1) introduce attendees to the work to develop the Strategy and (2) seek expert feedback and input. 

Madeleine Skellern
Director, National Health, Sustainability and Climate Unit; Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care 

Analysis of heat-health vulnerability and impacts with integrated, cross-domain data. 
 

Heatwave impacts on human health are driven by a complex set of factors, including the characteristics of individuals and where they live, in addition to weather and climate extremes. 

We present recent work on heatwave related risk and outcomes (mortality and morbidity) using newly available integrated, cross-domain datasets developed by the Australian Climate Service. The analysis was undertaken in two stages. 

In stage one, we developed a set of exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity themes and indices for identifying and mapping heat-health risk at the Statistical Area Level 2 with national coverage. We then used a time-stratified, case crossover approach to first model the basic relationships between heatwaves (using Excess Heat Factor) and health outcomes, and then incorporated person- and area-level factors to assess how they modify the basic heat-health relationship.  Individual- and area-level factors interact in complex ways that can exacerbate or ameliorate the risk of deaths and illness during heatwaves, and this results in considerable spatial variation in heat vulnerability and health outcomes across Australia.  

In stage two, we used statistical models developed in time-series analysis and environmental epidemiology to estimate future health outcomes under climate change scenarios. The approach aims to quantify the impacts of exposing current populations to future climate scenarios. The results suggest large increases in deaths and GP presentations attributable to heat in several locations of Australia over the coming decades.  

The findings of this study emphasize how evidence concerning the places and people at risk at a local level is critical for effective policy, planning, and interventions, especially in a warming climate. Granular, integrated cross-domain datasets with national coverage can aid in the identification of spatially targeted solutions.  

We conclude with a discussion of incorporating further complex risk and adaptation responses across domains and levels of decision making.  
 

Matt Beaty – Location Insights, Australian Bureau of Statistics  
Blesson Varghese – School of Public Health, University of Adelaide 
Kay Cao – Methodology, Australian Bureau of Statistics 
Tiernan Byrne– Methodology, Australian Bureau of Statistics 
David Hoffman – Seamless Prediction Science, Australian Bureau of Meteorology 
Stephanie Jacobs – Community Services Group, Australian Bureau of Meteorology 
Louis Coetzee – Location Insights, Australian Bureau of Statistics 
Catherine Cash – Location Insights, Australian Bureau of Statistics 
Mitch Black – Seamless Prediction Science, Australian Bureau of Meteorology 
Eric Lede – Climate and Disaster Risk, Australian Climate Service 

Lessons learned from Queensland Health’s climate change strategy development and implementation 
 

In early 2021 the Queensland Health Climate Risk Strategy was publicly released as the key policy framework in response to the risks of Climate Change.  Strategy work was commenced in early 2018 and included a series of stakeholder risk workshops, followed by a series of consultations, working group meetings and 45 document versions to get to the final product.  The Climate Adaptation Guidelines were developed in parallel to the Strategy and were publicly released in late 2019 and were developed in partnership with the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF).  A number of steps preceded and supported the development of both documents including the recognition of Climate Change as an enterprise risk, establishment of a cross-departmental climate change working group, and commitment from a senior executive sponsor. 

As early as 2018 it was identified that a number of obstacles existed to building adaptation in Queensland Health. These included: a lack of understanding on what adaptation meant; the absence of informed leadership; confusing availability of climate data sources; state and national policy prioritisation of mitigation over adaptation;  absence of government endorsed adaptation targets; lack of climate preparedness across other state agencies; absence of a mandate requiring sector adaptation; and lastly institutional lethargy.   Resolutions to many of these barriers have been progressively addressed through: the consultative process of developing a climate risk strategy; delivery of targeted training and education workshops on use of the Adaptation Guidelines; directly working with the Hospital and Health systems in undertaking climate risk assessments; liaison with the lead state agency (Department of Environment and Science) and other Agencies on Adaption planning: inclusion of a broad range of health sector partners for feedback and political support; public release of all documentation to support the wider health sector; development of the Adaptation Guidelines Almanac;  and lastly accepting that longer term cultural change will be needed to fully address institutional lethargy.  

Peter Schneider
Queensland Health

Adaptation for health and wellbeing: a participatory modelling approach 

Well-planned adaptation is needed to respond to the health and wellbeing impacts of climate change that local communities face. This requires systems level understandings of wellbeing and participatory approaches that centre local values and priorities in adaptation policy and planning.  

We aimed to co-develop a shared understanding of the health and wellbeing effects of flooding and sea-level rise in the urban area of South Dunedin, Aotearoa New Zealand to inform health-promoting adaptation decision-making. 

We undertook a qualitative participatory system dynamics modeling process involving 32 cognitive mapping interviews and two group workshops with community stakeholders, health and social service professionals, local government, and scientific experts. We triangulated participants’ knowledge with published evidence to develop a set of causal loop diagrams (CLDs). These capture the system feedback behavior that influences local health and wellbeing in the context of adaptation. 

The CLDs covered six intersecting themes: community-led development and participation in decision-making; quality of housing; the housing market; the insurance market; economic effects of flooding and sea-level rise; access issues arising from flooding. Potential intervention points were identified, informing health equity-focused adaptation policy. The process supported shifts in participant’s mental models towards a shared understanding of the issues, as well as relationship-building through collaborative modeling exercises.  

Participatory systems modeling approaches can support cross-sector collaborative learning about the complex, dynamic influences on health and wellbeing in the context of local climate change adaptation. These shared, holistic understandings are essential to inform planning and decision-making that promote positive health and social equity outcomes. 

Sarah Harrison NIWA; Alex Macmillan, Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago; Sophie Bond, School of Geography, University of Otago; Janet Stephenson, Centre for Sustainability, University of Otago 

A national climate risk assessment and adaptation plan for Australia – insights to date 

Climate change is a whole-of-economy, society and environmental challenge that affects all Australians. Our climate has already and will continue to change in the coming decades. The consequences and impacts of this change on our social, built, environment and economic domains are already occurring and are expected to increase and intensify in the coming decades. Support is needed for Australian communities, businesses, and industries to adapt to a warmer climate and increased extreme weather events. Decision-makers at all levels of government, businesses and communities need appropriate tools and information to make effective decisions to respond to these impacts. 

The Australian Government is taking strong action to protect Australians from increasing and more devastating climate events by investing in a new National Climate Adaptation and Risk program. Backed by $27.4 million in funding over 2 years under the 2023–24 Budget, the program will deliver Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment and a National Adaptation Plan. 

The scoping of the risk assessment started in 2022, led by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, in partnership with the Australian Climate Service (ACS).  

The risk assessment proposes to: 

i) be based on extensive consultation across all levels of government, industries and communities; 

ii) provide a nationally consistent method of a shared national framework;  

iii) be an evidence base of Australia’s climate risks, hazards and their likely impacts; 

iv) be communicated in a way that will help inform policy and planning; and 

iv) set robust governance and methodological foundations for future national risk assessments, while allowing for the process and architecture to evolve with each future assessment.  

The adaptation plan will use the risk assessment findings to build an agreed, nationally consistent pathway that prioritises Australia’s adaptation actions and opportunities.  It will provide guidance on the national response, including how we adapt to the risks, scale up our adaptation efforts and build our national resilience to climate impacts. 

Building on work already done by the Australian, state and territory governments over many years, the risk assessment and adaptation plan will deliver a shared national framework to inform Australia’s priorities for climate adaptation and resilience, and enable consistent monitoring of climate risk across Australia. 

This presentation will outline the methodology developed for the NCRA to date, and insights gained through the pilot and stakeholder engagement process and outline the high level approach to the adaptation plan.  

Chris Johnston1 
1Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) 

Governing hydrosocial risk for climate change adaptation in peri-urban South Australia 

Climate change is generating new levels of risk that are jeopardising modern development pathways. Key to many of the emergent societal risks are threats to the sustainability of water resource management systems. As a result, hydrosocial governance within regions will shape adaptation successes and failures in many places. We use social theory on risk to hydrosocial systems to discuss stakeholder experiences of a transition in South Australian water governance in peri-urban Adelaide, with detail from the Langhorne Creek viticultural region. Drawing from perceptions of key decision-makers and farmers, we critically analyse the governance approach to managing water resources in relation to changes to natural resource management policy in South Australia. To assist farmers to work through the crisis of the Australian ‘Millennium Drought’, strong state water resource regulation was used in conjunction with authentic community engagement and a range of incentives to support flexible water management outcomes in the region. Prescription of water resources limited over-exploitation and stimulated a diversity of opportunities for landowners to use water in sophisticated ways. When community stakeholders deliberated on common concerns in partnership with governance organizations for mutually beneficial outcomes, decision-making supported successful hydrosocial adaptation. Ongoing challenges, such as a lack of confidence in the scientific knowledge guiding decisions, were accentuated however, when the process was politicized and engagement became inauthentic. By working closely with community end-users, government can enable appropriate behavior and guide adaptive management even when the end-users are asked to tolerate reductions in the resource allocations. Attention to the social, cultural and structural relations that tie people and communities together around the management of risk will be crucial in facilitating effective technological and policy adaptations to future climate change.  

Funding: This research forms part of the project “Hydrosocial Adaptations to Water Risk in Australian Agriculture”, funded through the Australian Research Council’s “Discovery” program, grant number DP210101849. 
 

Douglas Bardsley1,i, Sophie Winsborough1, William Skinner2 and Georgina Drew2 
1 Geography, Environment and Population, School of Social Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.  
2 Anthropology and Development Studies, School of Social Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia. 

Australia’s public good regulation – is it enhancing adaptation in the regulated sectors? 
 

We hear a lot about adaptation being an important local issue, and that all sectors and private actors have a responsibility to undertake adaptation to manage the risks they face. But Australians rely on key public good markets for multiple services that are critical to the functioning of our society – and we hear somewhat less about how these markets need to be regulated, at multi-jurisdictional scales, to advance the adaptation interests of wide groups of people. Examples of regulated sectors with strong public good purposes are diverse and include electricity, housing, water-flow in the Murray-Darling Basin, carbon offsets, and insurance. These sectors are vulnerable to a hotter and more variable climate, and the design and operation of applied regulation needs to enable effective performance and service delivery in likely future conditions.  

Analysis of national regulation with regard to how it anticipates and requires consideration of foreseeable changes in climate identifies a number of weaknesses in Australia’s regulatory system with regard to its capacity to facilitate adaptation outcomes, and areas where regulatory instruments can be understood as acting as barriers to adaptation action. Key among these are inflexible standards based on historical data, inadequate science-policy-practice interfaces that lack the strength for updated science insights to be afforded priority, and mandated decision-systems that constrain comprehensive consideration of future risks. Such regulation-specific analysis enables identification of needed and tailored regulatory reforms. It is important now that opportunities for regulatory reform, such as for the de-carbonisation of Australia’s energy system, also build resilience and adaptation into planned reform agendas.  

Josephine Mummery
University of Canberra

Governance of Climate Change Adaptation in Ramsar Wetlands  
 

Wetlands are highly vulnerable to climate change and impacts are set to worsen as the climate warms further. Adaptation actions, supported by strong governance structures are urgently needed to increase the resilience of wetlands. However, it is unclear if current governance mechanisms to conserve internationally important Ramsar wetlands are effective in enabling climate adaptation. This research project assessed the effectiveness of governance mechanisms for enabling adaptation, focusing on two Ramsar sites in Western Australia – Toolibin Lake (south-west region) and the Ord River Flood Plain (north-west region). A key component of this qualitative study was semi-structured interviews with wetland policy makers, expert scientists, wetland managers and catchment agencies to obtain perspectives from these experts.  

All participants viewed wetlands as vulnerable to climate change, with most describing the impacts of altered hydrology due to changing rainfall patterns and some mentioning the secondary impacts on biodiversity, water quality and fire regimes. There was a tension around knowledge requirements for good decision-making. Most participants believed there is sufficient ecological, hydrological and climate knowledge, particularly in the SW of WA. However, some identified that finer scale climate projections and site-specific hydrological modelling and ecological monitoring was necessary.  

The Ramsar Framework, Federal and State wetland-related policies and guidance was not considered to hinder managing wetlands in a changing climate. However, policy implementation was a weakness, lacking flexibility and not embedding climate adaptation in management processes. This was due in part to conflicting priorities and resource allocation, suggesting institutional or political limitations. Most participants viewed the overarching WA government decision-making framework as reasonable, but described highly variable levels of stakeholder and public involvement.   

Together, these findings suggest weakness in governance mechanisms, particularly knowledge requirements, policy implementation, institutional arrangements and participation in decision-making which limit adaptive management to climate change. Recommendations for improved governance mechanisms will be presented. 


Leah Rheinberger– Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University 
Jamie Pittock – Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University 

Adaptation policy for cross-border climate risks: Imperative of and approaches to address cascading regional and global risks to Australia's security

Hazards driven climate change will compound and lead to complex and cascading risks that cross borders, which Australia is exposed to. Australia can help proactively manage those risks, if it implements more a risk governance model that bridges across institutional silos.  

By linking the non-linear impacts of incremental global and regional changes with the compounding effects of those changes (with Maritime SE Asia as an example), it becomes clearer how discrete physical impacts can manifest as global and regional systemic risks that affect Australia’s resilience and security. This includes through risks to supply chains and trade, food security, and health and humanitarian crises including pandemics and displacement. Building a better picture of those systemic risks requires analytical tools that acknowledge but high-levels of uncertainty in future systemic trends – including narrative-driven qualitative scenarios, and policy simulations.  

While traditional governance approaches can anticipate and plan for discrete impacts across scales of government, the compounding and cascading effects of domestic impacts alone remain a challenge for Australia’s disaster management and adaptation approaches. At a national scale, governance mandates can be detached due to institutional legacies and themes – isolating decision-making and investments on cross-cutting issues within narrow sets of priorities, leading to a more fragmented and reactive approach. Understanding and tackling domestic and international risks jointly requires an alternate method that bypasses institutional barriers and political cycles. 

Adaptation must always be designed and informed locally, but responding to international cross-border risks requires a coherent national approach that can prioritize scarce resources. As Australia renews its approach to adaptation and climate risk, tying Australia’s climate resilience and security at home to global and regional trends can open up new avenues for governance that move past the limits of institutional silos – while more equitably supporting those most vulnerable abroad.  

Michael Copage
Australian Strategic Policy Institute

What do we already know about improving bushfire laws and policies? Lessons for climate adaptive law reform in Australia 

Climate change was heavily politicised in Australian politics over the last decade, and that politicisation derailed a productive national conversation about how best to adapt to the changing nature of extreme events, and minimise the risk of disasters. Given the political context of the past decade, it is perhaps unsurprising that the vast majority of post-disaster inquiries initiated by Australian governments since 2009 are void of specific recommendations about climate change. Nevertheless, there is now clear evidence that climate is influencing substantial changes in the scale, frequency and severity of extreme events, including bushfires, across Australia and around the world. 

This paper will argue that, as catastrophic fire days become more likely, and fires become larger in scale and more damaging, Australian bushfire laws and policies need to improve in at least two important ways: (1) laws and policies will need to become better at supporting humans and natural ecosystems to prepare for and adapt to future fire regimes; and (2) laws and policies themselves need to become more adaptable and responsive as the climate changes. The paper will investigate the question: what do we already know about designing flexible, adaptation-oriented laws, that we could use to improve Australia’s bushfire laws and policies? 

Drawing insights from the academic scholarship about climateadaptive law reform, the paper will demonstrate that there is already information available about the kinds of legal characteristics that could help to foster adaptation and resilience as fire regimes change. I will highlight priorities for designing climateadaptive bushfire laws, and place those priorities into the context of ongoing national and state-based processes for reforming and improving the adaptive orientation of fire, environment and emergency laws. 
 

Phillipa McCormack,
Research Fellow, Adelaide Law School, The University of Adelaide

Think Global , Act Local: David Suzuki embracing call of Scottish town planner Patrick Geddes 

537 local governments cover or share a boundary with all  Australian freshwaters, terrestrial land and close coastal waters, except the ACT. These governments are responsible for around $467 billion in infrastructure and $248 billion in land, which pale into insignificance beside their biodiversity assets. WA has 148 local government entities managing over $45billion in assets with around 17,000 employees. The states’ and Northern Territory local governments have different structures. In WA, local governments are state government agents.  How well the will of the people in each local government locality is made known varies. In WA, it will be argued there is a degree of regulatory capture interfering with local governments’ ability to deliver their constitutional and statutory obligations to govern localities better. WA local government Councils are empowered to make climate mitigation building regulations and development approval standard conditions, but none do. WA state and local governments have the power to make planning and development policies to guide meritorious decisions, where an exercise of discretion is open to a decision maker. However, WA is the only state government that does not allow third parties merits review rights. Local governments need expert independent model building local laws, and policies that foster mitigation of climate change, one tiny step at a time. These need to be drafted by expertise that is not generally found within local government or their contractors. Local governments need expert climate change response models to improve buildings, reduce water and power usage, preserve and plant trees, electrify vehicle fleets, and include the environment in assets registers. Local governments need help. We call on external experts to develop and deliver these models. Climate change mitigation Councillor candidates could  then stand for local government confident that they have an expert platform to put to their electors.  

Sandra Boulter LLB on behalf of and representing LGEMA

Breaking the impasse for a revitalised national adaptation policy framework

Australia’s new government has renewed the national political appetite for climate action. This is a vital window of opportunity to break the ‘impasse’ (Waters et al 2023) that has characterised climate adaptation knowledge and policy development in recent years. In this presentation, the authors draw on a comprehensive history of Australian adaptation policy and practice to diagnose our recent adaptation impasse as the product of a foundational political economy at odds with the demands of a rapidly changing climate and the need for imaginative and just adaptation. We then articulate three key principles for breaking this impasse, giving tangible examples of current and potential examples across Australia that could support a revitalised national adaptation policy framework.

Dr Svenja KEELE and Dr Elissa WATERS, School of Social Sciences, Monash University

Cooler, Greener, Wilder: How Green Adelaide is tackling adaptation through urban environmental action 

Green Adelaide was formed in 2020, as Australia’s first natural resources management organisation focussed specifically on a metropolitan area, to lead a transformation of Adelaide’s urban environment in response to drivers such as increasing urban development, decreasing biodiversity and nature connection, and, of course, climate change. Green Adelaide’s effort is focussed across seven key priorities, including coastal management; water resources and wetlands; flora, fauna and ecosystem health; green streets and flourishing parklands; biodiversity sensitive and water sensitive urban design; controlling pest plants and animals; and nature education. 

The metropolitan Adelaide region is expected to get warmer and drier, within longer and hotter heatwaves, experience less reliable, but sometimes more intense, rainfall, and see impacts to a range of climate-sensitive species and communities. With a climate emergency having been declared by both State Government and several local councils within the metropolitan Adelaide region Green Adelaide recognises significant action must be taken to improve the resilience of our built and natural environments, our wildlife and our community in the face of the predicted changes to our climate in the coming decades. Thus strategic urban greening, creating quality green space, adopting climate-smart design that incorporates water and biodiversity, and increasing the resilience of the coastline, marine environments and remnant vegetation are at the core of the organisation’s actions to drive adaptation of the region’s environment, habitats, and communities. 

Implementing these actions, underpinned by evidence and in support of our many partners, will be vital to achieving Green Adelaide’s vision of a ‘cooler, greener, wilder and climate resilient Adelaide which celebrates our unique culture’. This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date, current initiatives, and where to for the future. 

Brenton Greer, Director,
Green Adelaide 

Incorporating Climate Risk and Adaptation into NSW Marine Park Planning  
 

Climate change was identified as a priority threat in the NSW Marine Estate Threat and Risk Assessment (2017) because of impacts to important marine ecosystems and species. An objective of the NSW Marine Estate Management Strategy is to build regional resilience to climate change and support managers to plan for the future.  

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) can play an important role in addressing the impacts of climate change and building ecological resilience of the marine and coastal environment.  Enhanced adaptive management of existing MPAs may lessen the impacts and offer new opportunities for adaptation. 

The NSW Government is progressing marine park planning for the five mainland marine parks in NSW.  The Draft Mainland Marine Park Network Management Plan (2021 – 2031) signals the new approach to marine park management in NSW, and includes identification of climate change risk and adaptation action as a priority.   

In line with the NSW Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (2022), the Office of Energy and Climate Change is currently undertaking a project with consultants at BMT to identify key climate risks at the network and marine park scale, identify knowledge gaps, and work with Marine Estate Management Authority (MEMA) agencies and external stakeholders to develop on-ground responses and determine priorities for management.  

This project has a specific focus on delivering tangible outcomes and advice on how, management rules (including zoning), policies, research and monitoring and other management measures could be practically applied to address climate resilience and adaptation in one identified site – Solitary Islands Marine Park. This will include both current actions as well as actions that could be taken in future as part of subsequent reviews of marine park management plans.  

This presentation outlines the background, findings of the initial risk assessment and resilience and adaptation toolkit that is being developed as part of the project.   


Coral Latella, Senior Project Officer, Cultural and Ecosystem Adaptation, Office of Energy and Climate Change, Treasury, NSW Government 
Greg Fisk, Global Lead (Climate Risk and Resilience), BMT Global 

Global projections of risk of future coral bleaching from next-generation climate models 
 

The world’s coral reefs are exposed to increasingly severe and frequent marine heatwaves, causing mass bleaching events and threatening the continued provision of ecosystem services. However, the rate at which bleaching events will increase in frequency is likely to differ not only between climate models and scenarios, but also between bioregions and reef systems. Therefore, spatially explicit projections of future coral bleaching risk from a wide variety of models are required to identify thermal refugia where reef corals are more likely to withstand future heat stress and continue to support important ecosystem functions. Here, we used the latest generation of global climate models (developed under the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and a novel downscaling approach to project future bleaching risk for the world’s coral reefs from 1985 to 2100 at biologically relevant scales. Our projections reveal a mean annual increase in Degree Heating Weeks of 0.32°C-week year-1 under a business-as-usual scenario (SSP5-8.5), moderated to 0.17°C-week year-1 under a lower-emission scenario as pledged in the Paris agreement (SSP2-4.5). However, these average rates of increase in thermal stress are highly variable among bioregions and reef systems, with marine heatwave intensity in some locations increasing up to twice as fast as in others. Our projections are embedded in an online data portal featuring a user-friendly interface to help guide future research and conservation in warming oceans.   


A/Prof Damien Fordham 
Associate Professor of Global Change Ecology 
Associate Dean (International) | Faculty Science, Engineering and Technology 
Theme Leader | Environment Institute 
School of Biological Sciences 
The University of Adelaide, Australia 

South Australian EPA Climate Change Adaptation Pilot Project
 

The South Australian government is committed to action on both climate change adaptation and climate change mitigation and is delivering a broad range of actions to address climate change to protect the community, the environment and support jobs and growth.  

The EPA has initiated a climate change adaptation pilot project as part of its commitment to action 2.7 Work with Environment Protection Act 1993 licensees to understand climate change risk and liabilities and enable adoption of risk management strategies of the South Australian Government Climate Change Actions. 

The EPA will work collaboratively with Environment Protection Act 1993 (EP Act) pilot licensees to proactively prepare for the potential outcomes of climate-related weather changes, such as coastal inundation, flooding from extreme rainfall, heat, bushfire, and dust, as these can alter the risk of environmental harm from pollution or waste management activities.   

Pilot licensees will be provided with tools, guidance and training to help integrate climate change risk assessment and social licence opportunities into business-as-usual risk management frameworks and approaches. An approach and support system to guide licensees through the process of adapting and building resilience to climate change will also be developed.   

Kimberly Maiolo 
​​​​​​​South Australian Environment Protection Authority 

Making Every Drop Count 

The Limestone Coast Landscape Region of South Australia is a highly modified landscape. An extensive cross-catchment drainage system, largely constructed from 1949-1972, has converted what was once a wetland dominated landscape into one dominated by agricultural production. Under changing climate conditions, this region is predicted to be drier and hotter. The drainage network was constructed under very different climate conditions and we need to understand what the impact of its efficient removal of water from the landscape is having on groundwater resources and consequent risks to primary production and the environment. This project focusses on adaptation of the drainage system and the potential to retain and redirect water in the landscape to mitigate risks and build resilience to the benefit of multiple primary industries and the environment. 

The drainage system is now seen to be “wasting” freshwater to the ocean. With all major industries having substantial growth agendas, and escalating land prices, it places a greater emphasis on retaining as much water as possible to support productivity without further impacting the region’s water resources and groundwater dependent ecosystems.  

The Limestone Coast Landscape Board (Board) has commenced a series of project demonstration sites retaining water in the landscape, termed Recharge Farms. We will present case studies of project sites underway with eNGO Nature Glenelg Trust and a planned project with the Department for Environment and Water.  The Board is purchasing a property to restore a peat swamp in partnership with First Nations. A study on Managed Aquifer Recharge has been completed that identifies sites where is may be feasible to direct surface water into aquifers. Other research has investigated sea water intrusion and surface and groundwater interactions.  

These projects are being funded by the National Water Grid Authority and the South Australian Government through the Landscapes Priorities Fund.  

Dr Liz Perkins1, Dr Penny Schulz1,2, Steve Bourne1  
1Limestone Coast Landscape Board 
2University of Adelaide  

The OceanWatch national marine NRM plan 2023-27

The Australian Government has recognised the importance of addressing the impact of climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems, and has appointed OceanWatch Australia as the national organisation responsible for delivering marine Natural Resource Management (NRM) strategies. However, the previous interim plan from 2017 to 2022 had limited investment, with most of the focus on sustainable fisheries practices.

To address this issue, OceanWatch Australia has developed a new 2023-2027 plan, which seeks to engage members of the saltwater community and seafood industry in creating locally relevant solutions for coastal and marine environments. This plan was developed through a series of Zoom workshops and an open survey that was analysed by a University of Tasmania researcher.

One of the three Operating Principles of this plan is climate change action, recognising that the impact of climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems is a major challenge. Natural Resource Management organisations have a critical role to play in the transition from research to on-ground action and in engaging a wider audience across jurisdictional boundaries. The plan aims to support a multitude of different interventions, which may include strategies to reduce the impact of climate change, such as the use of nature-based solutions like mangrove and seagrass restoration. The plan also aims to promote sustainable fisheries practices that support the health of marine ecosystems, and encourages a reduction in carbon emissions, as well as leaving a legacy of increased understanding of the dynamic relationships between human activities and the marine environment.

Lowri Pryce
OceanWatch Australia

Climate ready revegetation trials in NSW – lessons from a partnership with three Landcare groups 

The presentation focusses on new findings from an evaluation of climate ready revegetation trials scheduled April - June 2023. 

In 2019-20, the NSW Government supported a series of Landcare groups to trial a climate ready revegetation approach to restoration. These planting trials used the Climate Ready Revegetation Guide (Hancock et al. 2016) and focused on implementing climate-adjusted seed sourcing strategies. Three Landcare groups participated: Border Ranges Richmond Valley Landcare Network, Yass Area Network and Murrumbidgee Landcare. Two of the groups have planted trees and the third is propagating tube stock to plant in June 2023. This evaluation assessed overall success against the project objectives, documented and shared learnings, explored similar programs in south-eastern Australia, and made recommendations on how to support restoration practitioners to plant for the future climate. 

The evaluation tells the story of the ‘climate ready revegetation trials’, including its context, changes through time and lessons for the future. It was also an opportunity to reflect on the program to date and draw in lessons from elsewhere to help shape the nature of advice we give relating to climate ready revegetation strategies. 

 

Michelle Dawson, Senior Project Officer, Cultural and Ecosystem Adaptation, Office of Energy and Climate Change, Treasury, NSW Government 
Isobel Cummings, Project Officer, Cultural and Ecosystem Adaptation, Office of Energy and Climate Change, Treasury, NSW Government. 

Providing for wildlife co-benefits in coastal adaptation.
 

Historically many coastal adaptation approaches have focused on protecting coastal infrastructure, with limited consideration for coastal habitat conservation. Currently there is increased awareness of nature-based or “living shoreline solutions”. Peri-urban coastal habitats and wildlife are under increasing pressure from infrastructure, coastal development and impacts of sea level rise. This exacerbates a suite of imminent threats; habitat degradation and loss, visitor impacts, disturbance and pests. Coastal species reliant on habitats backed by built infrastructure are at particular risk. In some cases, this “coastal squeeze” may be ameliorated by blue carbon projects to restore or create saltmarsh, mangrove and seagrass and other habitats to sequester carbon. Blue carbon and living shoreline approaches can provide significant environmental co-benefits for coastal habitats, particularly saltmarsh, as well as benefits for wildlife, including migratory shorebirds. The value of saltmarsh for many species, including fish and shorebirds, may be undervalued. Tidal reconnection of coastal wetlands has recently been approved as a method under the national Emissions Reduction Fund to enable Australian carbon credit units to be earned. In planning for, and implementing coastal projects, there are opportunities to restore, create and optimise wildlife habitats. “Blue carbon” approaches should be carefully considered so that they do not impact on habitat requirements for species such as migratory shorebirds. Restoration of non-tidal coastal sedgeland can also provide important habitat as well as carbon storage. Dune restoration, also has some carbon storage benefits and may also provide some respite to climate impacts. Coastal weeds can affect the form of dune and beach fronts increasing the risk of tidal surge and storm events for beach-nesting species. Restoration may only provide “breathing space”, but even this may be of value as some species adapt. This presentation will briefly explore some case studies of adaptive approaches for coastal wildlife.   

Case studies explored in this presentation were supported by the Green Adelaide Landscape Board, Landscape Priorities Fund, Australian Government and previous Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resources Management Board and in partnership with multiple collaborators and partners.  
 

Tony Flaherty, Team Leader, Coast and Seas, Green Adelaide Landscape Board 

Climate adaptation for internationally important wetlands – preliminary methodological review.

Wetlands provide “ecosystem services” which are important for human health and wellbeing. The Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, known as the Ramsar Convention, was signed in Ramsar, Iran in 1971. The Ramsar Convention aims to halt worldwide loss of wetlands and to conserve, through wise use[1] and management, those that remain. This requires international cooperation, policy making, capacity building and technology transfer (dcceew.gov.au).

Australia was one of the first countries to become a Contracting Party to the Ramsar Convention and designated the world's first Ramsar site, Cobourg Peninsula, in 1974. Australia currently has 67 designated Ramsar wetlands. The designation of these wetlands carries with it certain obligations, including managing the site to maintain its “ecological character”[2] and to have procedures in place to detect if any threatening processes are likely to, or have altered, the ecological character.

Studies indicate wetland area and quality have declined in most regions of the world, including Australia. Most wetlands face many threats including pollution, invasive species, and changes in climate and in watering regimes. In contrast, there is often limited capacity and on-the-ground guidance to support wetland managers to specifically understand the vulnerability of wetlands to climate change and to undertake adaptation planning in line with the Ramsar Convention’s requirement.

This talk will: (i) review available methodologies for assessing vulnerability and adaptation for Ramsar wetlands in Australia; (ii) share experiences from their application on selected wetlands; and (iii) highlight lessons learned, particularly in the context of enhancing adaptive capacity of those who have roles and responsibilities for managing Ramsar wetlands.      

[1] Wise use under the Ramsar Convention is broadly defined as maintaining the ecological character of a wetland. Ecological character is the combination of the ecosystem components, processes and benefits/services (CPS) that characterise the wetlands at a given point in time (Ramsar Convention, 2005). The character of a site is documented in the Ecological Character Description (ECD) as a fundamental management tool for site managers, forming the basis of management planning and action as well as guidance on site monitoring requirements to detect changes in the ecological character of the site.

Dewi Kirono, Michael Dunlop, Jessica Melbourne-Thomas, Gayle Partridge, Mandy Hopkins, Marian Sheppard, Tapas Biswas, Vanessa Round, Klaus Joehnk, Peter Briggs

Building capacity for research translation: Healthy Environments and Lives 

Effective research translation is essential to support evidence-informed adaptation to climate change. Successful research translation requires collaborative partnerships, engagement of key stakeholders and ongoing capacity-building. Healthy Environments And Lives (HEAL) is the Australian national research network established to support improvements to health, the Australian health system and the environment in response to the climate crisis. The HEAL Network seeks to protect and improve public health, reduce inequities and inequalities, and strengthen health system sustainability and resilience against the challenge of environmental and climate change.  

Attainment of HEAL’s objectives requires effective research translation. In response, a research translation, implementation and impact strategy has developed for the HEAL Network. The strategy supports the related objectives of policy and community-relevant research, strengthened relationships between researchers, policy actors, practitioners and community members, and capacity development across all facets of research translation. The strategy is founded on the Health in All Policies and Environment in All Policies frameworks which prioritise good governance, transparency, accountability, investment in trust and relationships, adaptability, and collaborative partnerships.  

Actions to support research translation and implementation across HEAL are outlined in the strategy. Initially, actions include an online survey to explore the knowledge, attitudes and practices of HEAL members in relation to successful research, policy and practice collaborations. The results of the survey will help to identify opportunities to build upon existing research translation mechanisms and to establish and strengthen partnerships within and beyond the network.  Also in preparation is a research translation online course for HEAL Network members and affiliates. The course will support knowledge and capacity development in relation to research translation definitions, principles and approaches. Shared understanding of research translation approaches will facilitate ongoing collaborative engagement across HEAL and support achievement of the network’s intended outcomes.  In addition, a monitoring and evaluation program will track research translation progress over the course of HEAL.  

Funding: The HEAL Network is funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council Special Initiative in Human Health and Environmental Change (Grant No. 2008937). 


Carmel Williams1, Yonatal Tefera1, Katrina Lyne1 
1Centre for Health in All Policies Research Translation, Health Translation SA, SAHMRI, South Australia  

Regional scale climate change risk assessment of hospital and health systems in Southeast Queensland.  
 

Climate change poses a significant risk to Australia's health and wellbeing sector, affecting both the physical and mental health of the population. Hospitals and health systems are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as they are responsible for providing critical health services to the community. To help adapt the sector, Queensland Health (QH) has adopted a Climate Change Strategy, has developed climate risk management guidelines and tools, and rolled out training and capacity building for staff working in hospital and health services. As part of that, a regional-scale climate change risk assessment was conducted for the Southeast Queensland (SEQ) hospital and health system.  

The assessment used a multi-disciplinary approach involving a day-long workshop with experts from various fields, including climate science, public health, local governments, critical infrastructure and emergency management. The four largest Hospital and Health Services (HHS) of SEQ (Metro North, Metro South, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast) took part in the workshop. Explanation of the risk assessment process was followed by detailed discussion between muti-disciplinary stakeholders focusing on how different systems within a hospital (assets, patient care, human resources, transport, energy, water etc.) in SEQ might cope under future climate change scenarios. A range of risk mitigation options that can be considered were explored in the workshop.  

Notes captured in the workshop discussions were used to complete the formal risk assessment template and were further shared with different HHSs for review. Analysis of results identified that several systems such as transport, human and energy of these HHSs have medium to high risk from present-day climate extremes which are likely to increase further in a mid-term 2050 scenario. These regional risk assessment findings are likely to become a knowledge base for the participating 4 HHSs in SEQ and will contribute to their climate risk management journey.   
 

Dr Fahim Tonmoy1, Dr Peter Schneider2, Prof Jean Palutikof3, Associate Prof Sarah Boulter4 
1.Deloitte 2. Queensland Health 3.Griffith University 4.University of Tasmania 

From knowledge to action: tools to address climate change risk in Queensland hospital and health services 
 

In Australia there is no national plan for health. Queensland and Victoria are at present the only jurisdictions at state level with specific health adaptation plans. The Queensland Health Climate Risk Strategy 2021-2025 has underpinned the development of tools to support decision-makers in Queensland health and hospital services (HHSs) to assess and address climate change risks.  

Since 2019, Queensland Health and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) have worked together to develop and deliver a set of materials to support HHS staff to identify, assess and manage risks from climate change. To ensure understanding and take-up, a series of training workshops was held across the state with the most recent, in Townsville, held in June 2023.  

In this presentation, we describe how Queensland Health and NCCARF co-produced guidance for climate change risk assessment and management in the HHSs, undertook stakeholder engagement and consultation to understand user needs and delivered workshops to train key staff from across Queensland in the use of the materials, and to provide feedback on their usability. The presentation will reflect on the contribution of the training and review workshops to the success of the overall process, and look at what contributed to the successes of the project, what barriers had to be overcome and what, in hindsight, might have been done differently.  

Jean Palutikof
Griffith University

What is the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to high temperature in Australia: Exploring Climate, Population, and Adaptation scenarios.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide including Australia. This study estimates the observed and projected burden of CVD attributed to high temperature across all jurisdictions in Australia. 

We calculated the average annual burden of CVD (fatal and non-fatal) for each of the 2,310 statistical level 2 areas in Australia between 2003 and 2018. A meta-regression model was employed to estimate the temperature- CVD associations specific to each location and the observed burden of CVD attributable to high temperatures. We estimated the future burden of CVD attributable to high temperatures using eight simulated climate models under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) accounting for population growth, ageing, and different scenarios of human adaptation. Results were averaged and reported for the periods of 2030s and 2050s.  

During the baseline period (2003-2018), high temperature was responsible for 3.4% (SD: 0.4%) of the observed burden of CVD in Australia, equivalent to an annual average of 23,343 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 105.5 DALYs per million population. The projected future temperatures corresponded to a steady increase in BoCVD across all scenarios examined. According to projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, by 2050 the high temperature-attributable BoCVD is expected to increase to more than two-fold compared to the baseline level, considering population growth and no human adaptation. Australia’s Northern Territory is projected to experience the greatest increase in the attributable BoCVD although this would be modified if human adaptation to a warmer climate occurs. 

This study highlights the expected increase in burden of CVD in Australia due to high temperatures, and emphasizes the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the negative health impacts associated with a warming climate. 

Jingwen Liu1, Alana L Hansen1, Blesson M Varghese1, Peng Bi1 
1 School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide 

The Digital Health; an innovative sectoral approach to adapting to increasing climate driven health needs of our community. 
 

COVID-19 accelerated the use of digital health and data solutions such as virtual care and remote monitoring, which are estimated to have reduced patient transport emissions and provided a crucial ongoing access for care delivery. Zoonotic diseases, such as Covid19 are not the only expected health impact of our changing climate, extreme weather events, and increasing food and water insecurity are likely to drive up demand for health services.  

As the government commits to ongoing investment in Digital Health (Minister Butler National Press club 2 May 2023), what opportunities does this present from a system thinking perspective to not only deliver economic and clinical improvements but to adapt to climate change and drive overall reduction in the health sectors ecological footprint. 

The health sector contributes 7% of Australia’s carbon emission and emerging evidence demonstrates potential savings of telehealth, remote monitoring, and use of data. This presentation looks at the areas of opportunity to leverage the investments made at state and federal into digitising healthcare and how they can not only deliver value for patients and providers but planet too.   

• increased always on and more personalised data sets that drive insights into effectiveness,  
• applications for diagnostics, treatment, and management of disease 
• telehealth and telecare 
• remote monitoring 
• capacity management and patient flow 
• emergency management and response 

As we invest significant resources into a digital health future for Australia, shouldn’t we mandate the planet as a key beneficiary? 

Rachel de Sain 
codesain

Drought and hotter temperature impacts on suicide: Evidence from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia 

The Murray-Darling Basin is Australia’s prime agricultural region, where drought and hotter weather pose a significant threat to rural residents’ mental health – hence increasing their potential suicide risk. We investigate the impact of drought and hotter temperatures on monthly suicide within local areas in the Murray-Darling Basin, from 2006-2016. Using Poisson fixed-effects regression modelling, it was found that extreme drought and hotter temperatures increased total suicide rates. The effects of extreme drought and temperature on suicide were heterogeneous across gender and age groups, with younger men more vulnerable. Areas with higher percentages of Indigenous and farmer populations were identified as hot spots, and were vulnerable to increased temperatures and extreme drought. Green space coverage (and to some extent higher incomes) moderated the drought and suicide relationship. Providing targeted interventions in vulnerable groups and in hot spot areas will be warranted to reduce the suicide effect of climate change. 

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. 

Sarah Ann Wheeler1,*, Ying Xu1, Alec Zuo1. 
School of Economics and Public Policy, The University of Adelaide

Developing intersectoral indicators to advance health and climate change adaptation - the MJA-Lancet Countdown Australia  
 

Regardless of the increasing exposure to and impacts of climate change in Australia, the country’s adaptation strategies and measures to climate change lag far behind many comparable countries. In partnership with The Medical Journal of Australia (MJA) and the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, the MJA-Lancet Countdown produces annual reports and develops indicators to assess Australia’s progress on health and climate change. Established in 2017 and with the vision to continue its vital work through to the end of this critical decade of climate change action, the MJA-Lancet Countdown has published five major national annual reports since 2018 that track the progress in five broad domains, including vulnerability, exposures, and impacts, adaptation, mitigation, finance, and political and public engagement. The team involves 20+ leading researchers of multiple disciplines from 13 institutes across Australia, the UK, and New Zealand.  

Following the framework developed by the Lancet Countdown, the MJA-Lancet Countdown has developed unique health and climate change indicators for Australia. For example, despite an overall increasing trend in exposure to more extreme fire danger, the bushfire adaptation indicator shows a decreasing number of firefighters. We also note the lack of a national health and climate change adaptation plan and a decrease, for the first time, in Australia’s reported health emergency management capacity and public health human resources in the International Health Regulations capacity assessments. The presentation will focus on the development of health and climate change adaptation indicators and how they can be used to engage various stakeholders and advance climate change adaptation policies and actions in Australia.  
 

Associate Professor Ying Zhang* 
School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney 
Associate Professor Paul J. Beggs* 
School of Natural Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University 
* Co-Directors, MJA-Lancet Countdown Australia 

The current attributable risk and future burden of Ross River virus infection attributable to high temperature in Australia 

There is a growing set of evidence that indicates the impact of climate change on human health, including the emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. A rise in temperature extremes has increased the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as Ross river virus infection. Understanding the current and future burden of Ross river virus in the context of climate change is essential for planning and implementation of adaptation strategies. 

We have estimated the attributable Burden of disease (BoD) following comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change. We have calculated the current burden of disease from 2003-2018 and future burden was estimated based on three predicted climate change scenarios-RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8 and populations for the 2030s and 2060s. We have estimated the relative risk of RRV per 1°C temperature increase and calculated the population attributable fractions (PAF) by taking the most frequent temperature as the theoretical minimum risk exposure (TMRED). Then we have applied this fraction to the total burden of disease. The attributable BoD in each climate zone is calculated as the product of the PAF and the national BoD data (YLD) weighted by population in Köppen-Geiger climate zones.  

The current study showed high temperature attributed in the burden of RRV infection in Australia. With the selected TMRED, high temperature attributed national RRV BoD  was 0.1, 0.12, 0.08 and 0.1 YLDs in 2003, 2011, 2015 and 2018. Meanwhile the temperature attributable burden is expected to increase up to 2.6 % in 2060. The attributable fractions (PAF) of Ross River virus varied significantly across Köppen-Geiger climate zones. The highest rate of temperature attributable RRV infection was observed in humid subtropical climate zones.  The current findings can be relevant to develop adaptation strategies specific to each climate zone.  
 

Yohannes Tefera Damtew1, 2; Olga Anikeeva1; Blesson Mathew Varghese 1; Alana Hansen 1; Keith Dear 1; Michael Tong 3; Ying Zhang 4; Geoffrey Morgan 4; Tim Driscoll 4; Tony Capon 5; Peng Bi 1 

1.School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia
2.College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
3.National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT
4.School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia
5.Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Delivering climate information needs for environmental decision-makers 

The National Environmental Science Program (NESP) supports decision-makers by providing them with the best available information, based on world-class science. This helps Australian decision-makers to better understand, manage and conserve Australia’s environment. The Climate Systems Hub, one of four national environmental science research hubs, provides research to advance the understanding of Australia’s climate, its extremes and associated drivers, that will directly inform climate adaptation solutions for Australia. 

Wide engagement with stakeholders has provided vital insight on how users want climate information delivered to enable widest possible uptake and increased impact. The climate information needs of users varies greatly with their level of technical expertise and intended applications. The most universally identified requirement is for a single location guiding users to the most appropriate, and sector-specific information, as well as to data at suitable level for their expertise and application. Calls for guidance, training, and support on how best to use information also emerged as pressing needs.  

To meet these user needs, the Climate Systems Hub is developing a gateway to deliver integrated training, guidance, and regional projection summaries. The gateway should help overcome barriers to finding and applying climate information in decision-making using the best available science and following good practice. This presentation will detail the key user needs identified through engagement activities, the recommendations drawn from these needs, a gap analysis, and review of existing climate data portals. We will also provide progress in co-designing integrated, tailored climate information and its delivery that fills a gap in the existing information landscape and meets the specific needs of NESP stakeholders. 


Brad Murphy, Sarah Boulter, Tahnee Burgess, John Clarke, and David Hoffmann 
Bureau of Meteorology

Climate Monitor, A new interactive Agriculture focussed climate analysis Web-tool to help improve business managers understanding and decision-making, so enhancing their adaptive capacity to climate change impacts. 

Temperature is a critical driver of agricultural production by informing and determining location, seasonality, quality, yield and income potential.  

Climate Monitor allows the user to select a chosen location (within Australia) then easily analyse and graph rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures for all available years. Users can calculate thermal time (chill and growth potential (growing degrees)) based on their own knowledge of their crops’ upper and lower critical temperature and location specific growing period. Climate Monitor turns years of BoM weather data into easily understood graphs. Users can compare Australian weather data for up to 3 locations at once and download the graphs to their computer. 

Climate Monitor - turns Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) weather and climate data into easily understood, useable information, to improve agricultural business managers’ knowledge and management decisions. 

Climate Monitors’ location (farm) specific climate analysis capability is equally valuable to horticulture, broadacre cropping (e.g., sorghum, wheat, chickpeas, cotton) and cattle operations. A knowledge of planting windows (maximum and minimum temperature), as well as heat stress factors are major drivers of crop yield , quality, animal performance, and overall profit.  

Weather data for locations of interest can be easily downloaded, as CSV file. 

Funding: Climate Monitor was funded by the Queensland Government Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Drought and Climate Adaptation Program (DCAP). 


Project Leader – David Carey, Senior Horticulturist, Horticulture and Forestry Science, DAF Qld. 
Project Team Members – Dr Neil White, Principal Scientist, Horticulture and Forestry Science, DAF Qld. 
Peter Deuter, Horticultural Consultant, PLD Horticulture & Yiru Chen, Horticulturist, Horticulture and Forestry Science, DAF. 

The Australian Climate Service provides enhanced historical and future hazard and risk information 

In response to recent climate extremes including Black Summer 2019/20, the Australian Government has established a new multi-agency partnership called the Australian Climate Service (ACS). The ACS is a partnership, made up of world leading science, information and expertise from the Bureau of Meteorology, Geoscience Australia, CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Statistics. The ACS has been established to help Australia to better prepare and plan for the threats posed by a changing climate and natural hazards (e.g. heatwaves and extreme bushfire weather) and to minimize their impacts now and in the future.    

This presentation will introduce newly enhanced historical hazard datasets and future hazard projections, how they are being used to better anticipate and plan for future events and elucidate the risks that Australia will face in the coming decades. These datasets include the Bureau of Meteorology's Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA2) and projections information developed at the Bureau of Meteorology (BARPA) and CSIRO (CCAM). They highlight changes in the hazards, such as changes in frequency, intensity and duration; many of which will challenge future response strategies.   
 

D. Jakob1, D. Jones1, R. Matear2, K. Braganza1, J. Landsberg1 and J. Risbey2 
1 Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia   
2 CSIRO, Hobart, Australia   

Introducing NARCliM2.0 CMIP6-forced regional climate projections: a dataset to underlie climate impact adaptation in Australia 

The latest generation of the NSW and Australian Regional Climate Model (NARCliM2.0) will be available through 2023-24 for end-users conducting climate impact adaptation, planning, and research. Here, we introduce the key design features of NARCliM2.0, show case its performance improvements over previous generations of CMIP5-forced models (NARCliM1.5), as well as its climate change projections for Australia. NARCliM2.0 models generate climate projections for 1951-2100 over Australia at 20 km resolution as part of the Co-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) CMIP6 Australasia framework, and over south-eastern Australia at 4 km, using shared socioeconomic pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0, with SSP2-4.5 being planned. NARCliM2.0 downscales five CMIP6 global climate models using two different regional climate model configurations, creating ten different projected climate futures per SSP. NARCliM2.0 shows substantial improvements in the simulation of both present-day mean and extreme maximum temperature and precipitation over much of Australia relative to previous-generation models, with improvements being particularly noteworthy for mean and extreme maximum temperature. NARCliM2.0 high-resolution climate projections provide valuable datasets for climate impact studies, and further investigations are underway to understand the degree to which performance improvements for simulations of present-day climate are attributable to design features such as new physics parameterisations and increased resolution relative to improvements in the driving data.  

 

G. Di Virgilio ab, F. Ji a, E. Tam a, C. Rocha a, D. Choudhury a, J. Kala c, J. Andrys c, M. Riley a, J. P. Evans b, C. Thomas b, Stephen White a, and Yue Li a  

aClimate Research, Climate & Atmospheric Science Branch, NSW Department of Planning and Environment 
bClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia 
cEnvironmental and conservation sciences, and Centre for Climate Impacted Terrestrial Ecosystems, Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA  Australia 

Developing fit for purpose training for adaptation decision-makers.

Decision makers have told us they need opportunities for capability development programs to enable them to undertake climate risk assessments and adaptation planning. This is driven by multiple factors, including: 1) the plethora of climate information that is ‘out there’, 2) lack of confidence to determine which information sources to trust, 3) turnover of staff, and 4) desire to keep up with the latest projections information. These decision makers have also told us they need training that is tailored to the needs of their sector.  

To this end, we developed a pilot one-day training program which was rolled out in late 2022 to two locations. Evaluation and feedback of the pilot has now been used to inform the updated training program. Here, we present details of the training program and results to date from the evaluation that we have undertaken. 

John Clarke (NESP Climate Systems Hub, CSIRO Environment) 
Sarah Boulter (NESP Climate Adaptation Initiative Lead, University of Tasmania) 
Brad Murphy (NESP Climate Systems Hub, Bureau of Meteorology) 
David Hoffmann (NESP Climate Systems Hub, Bureau of Meteorology) 
Tahnee Burgess (NESP Climate Systems Hub Communications Lead, Monash University) 

Australian Climate Scenario Framework and national climate scenarios - applicable and comparable for local, regional and national users
 

Global and Australian climate is unequivocally changing. By how much, where it will manifest and how we can adapt into the future are deeply challenging and complex concepts that are not uniform spatially, temporally or across sectors. One powerful tool that has emerged to provide context to future climatic conditions is the use of climate scenarios. Climate scenarios are plausible descriptions of possible future climate conditions and use climate projections and other evidence to explore multiple options, such as ‘best-case’, ‘business-as-usual’ and/or ‘with mitigation strategies’. In practice, multiple scenarios are typically examined to capture variable potential situations to inform risk assessments. This allows decision makers and organisations to anticipate and plan for climate risks, including new extremes and changing frequencies of severe weather events. 

The Australian Climate Scenario Framework seeks to provide an accessible, nationally consistent, authoritative, and scientifically credible set climate scenarios across Australia. The Framework provides high-level guidance on the selection and use of climate scenarios that can be applied across spatial scales. It establishes three tiers of scenarios of increasing resolution.  Tier 1 scenarios are presented and provide a national scale overview through 4 large geographic regions (northern, eastern southern and central rangelands). Tier 2 scenarios focus on the regional and sectoral scale with tier 3 focussing on specific applications. The development of tier 2 and 3 scenarios will be explored for up to 10 pilot regions in the second half of 2023.   

Funding: The development of pilot tier 2 and 3 scenarios is supported through a grant from the National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) Disaster Risk Reduction Fund. 

Leanne Wilkinson
Department of Climate Change Energy the Environment and Water

Bringing the Australian climate science community together to help users: A National Partnership for Climate Projections  

The ability to understand and manage physical climate risks depends on high-quality and consistent climate information delivered in forms that are accessible to users and relevant to their needs. Recognising this increasing demand – the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water led the formation of a National Partnership for Climate Projections in 2022. It includes key representatives from Australian climate science community including state and territory governments, CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, universities, and Australian Government funded initiatives such as the National Environmental Science Program Climate Systems Hub and the Australian Climate Service. The aim of the NPCP is to develop a consistent approach to deliver comparable, robust, authoritative, fit-for-purpose future climate information to enable a wide range of users to assess their climate risks and plan more efficiently for potential opportunities.  

The partners committed to work together to deliver the Climate Projections Roadmap for Australia. The roadmap outlines a collaborative approach to bring together existing initiatives from the partners, including the production (e.g., model selection), higher level analysis (e.g., hazard assessments) and delivery of climate projections to enhance existing initiatives and nationally comparable climate projections information. The roadmap also seeks to increase collaboration over the longer term to guide investment in climate research and enabling research infrastructure. Through implementing the roadmap, the National Partnership for Climate Projections is building a community of practice across those designing, producing, and delivering climate change projections to address common challenges.  

The partnership operates through working groups focused on climate change science and projections, technology, computing and data, and climate services and user needs. An outline of the NPCP and its constituent workplans will be presented.   

Funding: No external funding is provided to support the work of the partnership. It is a collaborative approach to bring together existing initiatives from the partners.
 

Ramona Dalla Pozza1, Ben Evans2, Michael Grose3, Kathryn Smith2, Felix Bowman-Derrick4 

1 University of Tasmania,
2 NCI Australia,
3 CSIRO
4 Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water  

Climate Services for Agriculture: a national and sector wide platform to enhance farmers’ climate resilience 
 

Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA), launched in June 2021, is an online platform that provides climate risk information tailored for Australian agriculture. This service, which has recorded more than 8000 unique visits, supports farmers in understanding climate change risk in terms relevant to them. The information is presented on 0.05x0.05° grids and is customised to a selected commodity. For example, if a user selects Moree and wheat, climate risk information is presented in terms of ‘growing season rainfall’ and ‘flowering frost risk’ amongst other production relevant risks.  

The ongoing design of CSA is based on the principles of robust science, strong engagement and being user centred. To date, more than 150 engagements have been undertaken via a range of avenues (e.g. field days, workshops, interviews) across all states and territories with well over 20 agricultural industries. Based on user feedback, numerous changes and updates have been incorporated since launch, including two major redevelopments. This approach has allowed us to be flexible in response to user needs to ultimately improve farmer understanding of climate risks as relevant to their circumstances and aid their adaptation planning.  

Three key learnings have been identified through the development of CSA. 1) CSA is seen as valuable to begin conversations around longer-term planning. However, ongoing effort is needed to highlight the need to prioritise this type of planning for some farmers. 2) Climate risk information is difficult to interpret. We are continuing to engage and innovate to deliver robust climate risk information that supports self-interpretation and ultimately adaptation. 3) There are strong benefits of a cross discipline team to provide innovative solutions. 

CSA continues to evolve. In the coming months we are delivering ‘train the trainer’ guidance, developing new concepts to aid climate risk interpretation and provision of greater accessibility via application programming interfaces (APIs). 

Climate Services for Agriculture is delivered in partnership with Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, and funded by the Australian Government’s Future Drought Fund through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. 

Rebecca Darbyshire and Ashley Harkin 
CSIRO

Digitally transform your organisations sustainability journey

Trellis Technologies is a leading carbon accounting software platform created by sustainability professionals. Our purpose is to support organisations to understand and mitigate their impact on the environment as they contribute to a sustainable future. As part of our commitment to climate change mitigation, we believe that reliable data, automation and communication are the key to speeding up organisational change. In our presentation, we will explore how digitising your sustainability journey can deliver insights that fasttrack organisations operational and behavioural changes.

Through a series of case studies and anecdotes, we will demonstrate how software can assist organisations to quantify their footprint and prioritise making the most meaningful changes first. Digitising organisations approach to sustainability allows for quick access to carbon emission and cost data at an organisation, group, facility or meter level. You cannot manage what you do not measure and the quality of the data is directly related to the ability to achieve high quality outcomes.

Along the way we will highlight the role of effective communication in promoting behaviour change within organisations and among external stakeholders. Data combined with a variety of software solutions can be utilised as an invaluable communication tool to drive stakeholder engagement. This helps organisations to tell their story and it invites stakeholders buy-in and co-create the future of the narrative. We will provide examples of how these tools have been used successfully in the past to support effective planning and decision-making.

The audience will be left with an understanding of the challenges faced by organisations at various stages of this journey and how to best manage them. By sharing our viewpoint and role in the digitisation of a sustainable future, as well as our experience with organisations at the forefront of change we seek to inspire curiosity, education and empower.

Ryan Waddington
Trellis Technologies

Data driven climate analysis exposing vulnerable communities 

Vulnerable communities face challenges that are exacerbated by climate change, such as  loss of land and resources, economic marginalization, and unemployment. Some of the areas most exposed to extreme weather and climate change are also areas of high socio-economic disadvantage. People living in these areas are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather and climate change because of their financial limitations. Many homes could become uninsurable or very expensive to insure, and many families might need to be evacuated.  

Climate risk may also contribute to the socio-economic disadvantage of suburbs in the future, as those highly exposed to extreme weather and climate change may experience a downward spiral of unaffordable insurance and decreasing property values leading to a gradual decline in wealth. People who can afford to leave the suburb will, and people with fewer economic options will move in.   

In order to gain an understanding of these complexities, XDI has used its national Australian address risk run to rank suburbs by climate risk exposure based on the number of High Risk Properties. The ranking was then combined with the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), which ranks areas in Australia according to relative socio-economic disadvantage. This assessment provides detailed granular information which can be used for adaptation planning. It highlights which vulnerable communities in which areas require attention and support in strengthening resilience.    

This presentation will focus on the results of the analysis and how it can inform potential effective place-based adaptation measures that can be developed in collaboration with communities.  This can range from actions taken at household level as well as urban planning, economic, health, energy and environment policy.  The private sector can also be involved through the development of products and services to build community resilience. 

Annalena Lochte
The Climate Risk Group

Plans and jams: how one community group is bolstering resilience activities to better prepare for local disasters
 

The Northern Rivers region of New South Wales was significantly affected by floods in 2022: these were a relentless deluge with devastating impacts on the communities of the region leading to loss of life, and damage to thousands of homes, businesses, farms and natural ecosystems. The official response to the disaster and devastation was slow: the community response was extraordinary. Subsequently, an acknowledgement of the increasing scale and frequency of disasters in the region has prompted one community group to review their role and response around local disasters.  

The Bangalow Branch of the Country Women’s Association (CWA), established in 1940s, serves the local community through political lobbying on social issues that affect country women/families, direct support for local community groups, and social, craft, fundraising activities.  

In considering their disaster response, the CWA Branch recognised that many of its existing activities contributed to one or more of three key (and overlapping) attributes of resilience described by Folke et al (2003). These attributes are the ability to withstand shocks and maintain essential structure and function; the ability to self-organise; and the ability to adapt and learn. Branch members considered that a focus on resilience planning—rather than developing a disaster plan that might languish on a shelf— would help instil a narrative and behaviour of resilience thinking into the branch, plus seed this in the wider community.  

This presentation will outline the resilience framework and process used by this community group. Through a series of afternoon workshops with branch members, a resilience plan was developed. The resilience plan outlines the branch’s existing activities and how they can be mapped onto a resilience framework and the framed and/or tweaked to better contribute to community (and community group) resilience. It also outlines how these activities can be extended during a disaster event and recovery.  

Anne Leitch, Griffith University (presenter) 

Dr Tommy Dick: Ethos Global 

Disaster Resilience: humanitarian adaptation to a changing climate

Australian Red Cross recognises climate change is a wicked problem, and a major factor contributing to the ongoing vulnerability of billions of people across the world. The impacts of climate change exacerbate poverty, migration, poor health and increased violence and conflict. Red Cross can’t solve this alone but we commit to doing our part. Our remit is reducing the humanitarian impacts of climate change. We do this by building social capital and adaptive capacity through community disaster resilience. We have iterated a model for delivering nation-wide community disaster resilience that centres communities and builds on local strengths. The activities we undertake alongside communities reduce the impact future disasters have on individuals, health, families, workplaces and communities. That is an adaptation to climate change.  

Funder: Australian Red Cross 

Marilee Campbell 
Australian Red Cross

A Moving Problem: Options for Resourcing the Relocation of People and the Repurposing of Sites to Facilitate Climate Change Adaptation

The impacts of climate change have increased the risks for many settlements to the point where   policymakers and planners are having to consider more proactive adaptation options. Relocating people and repurposing sites (also known as managed retreat) is the strategic and pre-emptive withdrawal of settlements and infrastructure from hazardous zones that is now being considered in an increasing number of contexts and locations. The objective of this paper is to promote discussions about how to ensure the implementation and resourcing of effective, efficient, and appropriate adaptation through relocation and repurposing transitions. This study reviews how resources can be mobilised from either the private and public sectors, or the two in partnership, to motivate effective transitions, for example, through product and policy innovation. Both sectors struggle with the long term and uncertain impacts of climate change and the ramifications of how to determine where the boundaries of residual risk lay, leaving both sectors looking at each other for solutions and resources. Local and regional governments, which are often responsible for planning and land use, are usually the most resource constrained, but they remain in a unique position with regards to climate adaptation responsibility. Local governments can be exemplary borrowers and act in collective interest given their role as planning authorities, forums for democratic debate and responsible government, and collectors of taxes and provider of services However, the research points to the limited capacity in the public sector to administer innovative resourcing schemes. The private sector, when provided the right incentives, can provide significant scale, flexibility, and dynamism to enable managed retreat, although there are also significant barriers to action at the likely scale required. As the frequency, extent, and magnitude of climate-related risks combine and compound, policymakers and planners will be left with fewer options for at-risk areas.  

Michael Howes
Griffith University

Too much, too little? Navigating the challenges of developing and applying social impact and vulnerability assessments in research and practice. 
 

There is a plethora of reasons why understanding the social impact and vulnerability of complex human systems to climate change can be challenging. In this presentation, we explore two reasons: disciplinary (ontological and epistemological) difference and methodological shortcomings. Our insights come from three research and consultancy projects in Aotearoa-New Zealand: understanding social vulnerability a research topic under the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge; the First National Climate Change Risk Assessment; Wellington Regional Climate Change Risk Assessment.  

In relation to disciplinary differences, we suggest that our training as researchers and practitioners typically leads to either quantitative broad scale approaches or qualitative grounded approaches in particular places. These are distinctly different types of studies, underpinned by different assumptions about how we understand and describe impact and vulnerability and how it is experienced. Both approaches are important, but they are challenging to reconcile in an assessment process.  One approach (quantitative) may oversimplify impacts and vulnerability while the other (qualitative) potentially may become too complex.   

In relation to methodological challenges, current impact, vulnerability, or risk assessment methodologies focus on the direct impacts of a single climate driver or hazard but can struggle with indirect or cascading risks. The indirect and cascading impacts of climate change have been identified as key risks in Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia. Likely underestimation of social impact, vulnerability and risk in practice will therefore underestimate the scale of the adaptation challenge. We suggest that integrating several “types” of cascading risks into social and vulnerability assessment can provide new directions in such assessments.    

Drawing on empirical evidence from the three projects, we provide a commentary on different ways of approaching social impact and vulnerability that consider more complex sets of cascades. 

Funding: 
Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge; 
Ministry for the Environment New Zealand Government 
Consortium of Councils in the Wellington Region 

Paula Blackett1, Danielle Johnson1, Judy Lawrence2, Laura Robichaux3, Azura Patterson-Ng3 and Cushla Loomb3  

1 Social Science and Economics, National Institute of Water and Atmosphere, NZ 
2 Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, NZ 
3 Becca, NZ 

Building Resilience in Communities to Climate Change Impacts – A Socio-Spatial Approach Focused on Vulnerable Populations 
 

Although a climate emergency is felt by everyone in an affected area, it is often those that are most vulnerable within a community that will feel the greatest impact and suffer lasting consequences.  

Working with the South East Councils Climate Change Alliance and the Minderoo Foundation, we undertook an initiative that focused on targeting community resilience building measures by identifying and mapping vulnerability of those most at risk to climate change. This work aims to help prepare communities for current and future changes in the climate by improving community preparedness through practical actions, tools, and resources. 

Using the latest climate data in conjunction with established IPCC Assessment Report Climate risk frameworks, we developed a model describing how likely climate hazards and exposure over time, coupled with sensitivities and capacities of vulnerable populations to these climate changes, can be used to assess the likely vulnerability to these changes, and hence risk and impacts.  

Through a co-design process with member Councils and community service providers we have identified critical factors that are likely to make vulnerable groups more sensitive to climate impacts. These sensitivity factors are considered along with capacity measures that may mitigate the potential impacts of change. 

Using various quantitative inputs, such as key demographic data and spatial representations of support services, combined with qualitative descriptive inputs about vulnerable populations, a spatial representation of community vulnerability to climate change is derived. This is further expanded into likely risks and impacts by associating it to likely changes in exposure to climate change and associated hazards over time. 

By focusing on socio-spatial aspects of a vulnerable population such as the social, ecological, physical, institutional and economic situation, a holistic modelling framework is established – linking spatial analysis fundamentals with social science insights to map vulnerability in populations most at risk to climate changes. 

Rhiannan Mundana; Harmen Romeijn; Stephen Farrell  
Spatial Vision

Can diplomacy help councils contribute to global biodiversity and climate change goals?
 

The Global Biodiversity Framework sets goals to halt biodiversity loss by 2050. In the Australian context, the Commonwealth government has signed the Leader’s Pledge for Nature and has committed to ‘nature positive’ repair and regeneration rather than decline of Australia’s megadiverse environment. What do these broad and ambitious sounding international pledges and commitments, such as the Glasgow Leader’s Declaration on Forests and Land Use mean for NSW councils and how can we contribute to and support them? Afterall, ecosystem planning, protection, management and restoration happens at the local level, often in partnership between government, private landholders and business.

The link between climate change and biodiversity is clear. Species decline and extinction from habitat loss, exotic species invasion and over exploitation is exacerbated by climate change.

‘City diplomacy’ is the conduct of international relations by representation of cities’ interests. International activities influence local governments by localising the global agenda, and local networks can embolden state, national and international activities. Furthermore, cities are identified as ‘actors’ in UN frameworks for sustainable development and are recognised in the Paris Agreement and IPCC reports (e.g. The Summary for Urban Policymakers of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report).

City diplomacy provides an opportunity for local government to use established frameworks and networks, voluntarily adopt international norms, increase expertise in international affairs, share resources and policies, and learn best practices from other cities. Central Coast Council will join up to the CitiesWithNature network. One of the main outcomes will be to assess and communicate how our local action plans for biodiversity and climate change align (or not) with national and international goals. Alignment may provide novel funding opportunities for council to achieve on-ground ecosystem protection and restoration. This presentation shows the steps involved in joining CitiesWithNature and ends with an invitation to other councils to participate.
 

R. Lawson
Central Coast Council, Wyong, NSW

LOCALISE IT! DON’T CRITICISE IT 

Hear how Waverley is embedding adaptation across Council’s controls, urban greening and youth empowerment work, by: 

• Modelling future climate to better understand residential design requirements for future resilience 
• Building SkyParks on a local Westfield shopping centre to reduce urban heat and foster connection to nature 
• Hosting intergenerational conversations to localise climate change responses and actions

Suzanne Dunford
Waverley Council 

The Governance of Local Climate Commons 
 

As climate change impacts accelerate, there is an urgent need to understand and enhance the governance of climate change adaptation, before existing vulnerabilities are exacerbated, and opportunities to accrue benefits from adaptive responses are lost.  

While a global phenomenon, climate change is experienced locally, requiring local and context-specific adaptations. But what are the attributes of governance that can support local and sub-local capacity to anticipate, adapt and address local climate change impacts on ecological and social systems?  

Based on research in the Waverley Local Government Area, I examine how urban trees and vegetation, accessible to both public and private interests, represent a local climate commons.  

By examining structural subsidiarity in Australia, I show why local government is best placed spatially, legislatively, and operationally to lead adaptation governance, but that subsidiarity must be deepened, and extended in practice, to provide the best chance for successful transferability of inclusive, accountable and effective climate change adaptation, and the recognition and appropriate resourcing to realise local climate commons. 
 

Suzanne Dunford
Waverley Council
 

Climate Risk and Transformation: A Balancing Act 
 

Merri-bek City Council in the inner north of Melbourne, Victoria, had endorsed its Climate Risk Strategy in 2022 with a Foundational Action Plan for endorsement in June 2023. This marks the Council’s ambition to scale up its efforts in resilience and adaptation to climate change, leveraging on its work on carbon reduction, urban forests, integrated water management, and nature and biodiversity.  

The process of formulating the strategy and action plan has been deliberative— engaging across many different units of Council and with the community in better understanding how climate change can impact service delivery, infrastructure, environment, and the broader community and in identifying what actions are needed to build resilience.  

In integrating climate risk management and resilience building across Council policies, operations, and programs, challenges emerge. These include balancing priorities and resources between incremental changes such as in considering climate change information in operations and planning to broader transformations that require unpacking of larger decision-making processes and re-examining the responsiveness of Council services to emerging community needs. 

The design and delivery of transformative work require deep engagement from problem framing, developing a common understanding of climate change impacts, and co-creation of solutions. This also requires Council to actively seek out partnerships and feedback from a range of stakeholders including other local government agencies, state agencies, and networks of service providers that support the community. 

The presentation shares the experience of Merri-bek City Council in adopting a whole-of-Council approach to climate risk management and lessons learned to date. 
 

Victoria Hart and Mara Baviera 
Sustainability and Climate, Merri-bek City Council 

Andrew joined the Insurance Council of Australia in September 2020 as CEO and Executive Director.  He joined the ICA from the Commonwealth Bank, where he served as the Executive General Manager for Corporate Affairs for seven years.

He was previously Director of Corporate and Public Affairs for Woolworths Limited for six years, participating as a member of the Management Board. 

Andrew’s professional career started as a journalist in regional New South Wales in 1994, before moving to Canberra in 1996 where he worked in federal politics for 10 years. From 2001 to 2007 he was the Federal Director of the Nationals and served on the Federal Management Committee.

His expertise in the corporate affairs profession has been recognised with admission to the Arthur W. Page Society, recognition in the International Top 50 Corporate Affairs Professionals (Salt & Shein 2014) and in the inaugural award of Top 50 Outstanding LGBTI Leaders in Australia (Deloitte 2016) for his work in leadership roles, diversity and on the Board of Equality Australia for the marriage equality campaign. 

He has extensive experience in governance, both in the corporate and not-for-profit sectors. He is a member of the ASX Corporate Governance Council and the Advisory Board of the Northern Rivers Reconstruction Corporation. He serves on the Board of the charity Rural Aid.

Russ Wise is a Principal Sustainability Economist at CSIRO in Canberra.

Russ is passionate about working with diverse groups of people across industry, government, research, and community to collectively mitigate and manage the disruptive effects of rapidly changing climate, economies, populations, technology and ecosystems. 

Over the last 15 years, Russ has followed this passion by building transdisciplinary teams and leading the delivery of large R&D projects in Australia, PNG, Indonesia, and South Africa.  Examples of these include the Strategic Pathways to Resilience Investment projects under the Enabling Resilience Investment initiative and the development of conceptual and analytical frameworks to support transformative adaptation under the Enabling Adaptation Pathways programme.

In doing so, Russ has become a leading authority in climate adaptation, resilience, and disaster risk reduction, particularly to overcome systemic challenges to planning and investment decision-making under uncertainty. 

More information is available at: https://research.csiro.au/enabling-resilience-investment/ and https://research.csiro.au/eap/

Senator the Hon Jenny McAllister – Assistant Minister for Climate Change and Energy

Jenny McAllister is a Senator for New South Wales and the Assistant Minister for Climate Change and Energy in the Albanese Labor Government. 

Jenny was born in Murwillumbah and grew up on the north coast of NSW. Her professional career spans both senior roles in the public and private sectors, with a strong focus on infrastructure, environment management and climate change. Before joining the Australian Senate she held various senior roles at AECOM, a global infrastructure firm.

She has served as National President of the Australian Labor Party and as a member of the ALP National Policy Forum. She co-founded the Labor Environmental Activist Network (known as LEAN). Jenny is passionate about managing the economy to achieve social justice and social inclusion, and better outcomes for climate and sustainability

Market insights on changing private sector approaches to adaptation and resilience

Christie Clarke is a climate risk specialist with over a decade’s worth of experience advising global corporates and financial institutions on the integration of climate considerations into commercial, strategic and investment decision making. She is an Executive Director at Pollination, a leading climate investment and advisory firm set up to accelerate the transition to a net zero, nature positive future. In this role, she works with Boards and Executive teams to translate complex climate science into real world strategic implications, informing climate adaptation and mitigation planning. She has a background in climate analytics and risk management having previously worked at the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) in London, where she advised large asset owners and managers on adaptation and resilience, and before that, working within KPMG’s Climate Change and Sustainability team on carbon accounting and assurance.

Jason is a Professor of Climate Science at the University of New South Wales. Jason is an expert in the science of the climate system particularly in regards to land-atmosphere interactions, regional climate change, and climate hazards and risks. He is a chief investigator in the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, on the leadership team for the National Environmental Science Program's Climate Systems Hub, on the science advisory team of the World Climate Research Programmes Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and has been a lead or contributing author to several past IPCC reports. Jason has published over 200 papers in international scientific journals. He is a fellow of the Modelling and simulation society of Australia and New Zealand and the Royal Society of NSW.

The Queensland Reconstruction Authority (QRA) is the lead state agency for disaster recovery and resilience. Since it was established in 2011, QRA has helped impacted communities recover from more than 100 significant disaster events. As General Manager, Jimmy is responsible for driving an integrated and coordinated approach to QRA’s service delivery, ensuring the best possible recovery and resilience outcomes for Queensland communities.

Vicki Woodburn leads the Australian Climate Service which aims to help better understand the risks posed by a changing climate and natural hazards, to limit the impacts now and in the future. The Australian Climate Service is a partnership between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Geoscience Australia bringing the Australian Government's extensive climate and natural hazard information and capabilities into a single national view. 

Vicki has had a distinguished track record of leadership in both the public and private sector. Her work has focused on improving resilience and profitability in Australian industries, communities and natural resources. Vicki was previously part of the executive leadership team at the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA). She was instrumental in implementing complex water reforms and transforming its engagement, science and policy functions. Before joining MDBA, Vicki held technical and leadership roles with the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, private sector consulting businesses and the Australian Government's Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. In these roles she led a range of cross-sector partnerships. These were in the areas of soils, climate change, rural policy, agricultural extension, digital innovation, and primary industry health and safety. Vicki has a Bachelors Degree in Applied Science from the Australian National University.
 

PRESENTATION NOTES:

Building the evidence base for your decisions

The climate and natural hazard challenges that Australia is facing are increasingly complex and severe. This is not a distant challenge, but one that is in front of us already. Extreme weather events in recent years, from bushfires to floods, have brought this into stark reality. The pace of required change is fast, and appropriate preparedness and responses will vary both temporally and geographically. We need to leverage effort and boost our understanding of where Australia is vulnerable to climate change and increasingly complex extreme natural hazards. This is multifaceted and has many layers. It requires building and enhancing ongoing capability that supports planning, response, disaster risk reduction, mitigation and adaptation. It requires considered and structured effort, drawing on a wide range of skills and disciplines, enhanced and new methodologies, improved access to data and knowledge and new tools, innovations and skills are needed. Building this capability is an ongoing commitment which is why the Australian Climate Service has been established.

Collaborating across sectors to build capacity for improved resilience investment decision-making  
 

The Resilient Futures Investment Roundtable (RFIR) is a cross-sector collaboration between public, private, not-for-profit and research organisations seeking to help bridge the adaptation finance gap by improving the way resilience investment decisions are made. RFIR aims to improve the way resilience is valued in investment decision-making by building capacity to identify and use tools that take a systemic approach to quantify the broad economic, social, environmental and governance benefits of interventions.  

RFIR supports diverse organisations with different values and priorities to understand the spectrum of uses of resilience value information. Through this convening and coordination role, members are supported to navigate complexity, uncertainty and interdependencies of systems in a changing climate. 

Members have established a shared understanding of what a robust resilience valuation approach looks like, agreeing that it should adopt a broad, systemic and whole-of-life perspective considering interdependencies and externalities, and also be functional and reliable. A scan of available tools and methodologies has identified that while there are many tools that focus on specific hazards or sectors, it is difficult for organisations to choose the most appropriate methodology for their specific context. Few approaches were identified that RFIR’s agreed definition of a robust and systemic approach. This process identified the need to build capability across all sectors and organisations to undertake robust resilience valuation for improved investment decision-making.   

To meet this need, RFIR provides a forum for cross-sector capacity building, knowledge sharing and identifying potential opportunities for collaborative partnerships on complex challenges. Members are also working together to develop guidance materials, practice cases and supporting resources and learning opportunities. These outputs are being designed to enable organisations to understand and navigate the landscape of valuing resilience, and access examples of organisations who are using robust tools to improve decisions about when, where and how to invest in resilience.  

Melinda Morris
Climate-KIC Australia

Understanding the economic, social and environmental benefits of investing in resilient road infrastructure in Queensland 

The Queensland Reconstruction Authority (QRA), as a member of the Resilient Futures Investment Roundtable (RFIR) has partnered with the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) to understand the broader economic, social, and environmental benefits of the Queensland Betterment Fund that increase the resilience of road infrastructure. The Fund provides funding to local governments and state agencies to rebuild essential public assets damaged during a disaster event to a more resilient standard, helping them withstand the impacts of future disasters.  

QRA have already demonstrated the value of the Queensland Betterment Fund using a traditional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) that compared the betterment investment with restoration costs and avoided costs from extreme events that have impacted infrastructure since being rebuilt. The Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) tool has been developed to expand on this traditional CBA by identifying and valuing the broader indirect and intangible benefits of investments in making road infrastructure more resilient. Outputs from the analysis will help to inform future decisions around investments in resilient road infrastructure to achieve the best outcomes for Queensland communities.   

The SAVi tool considers a wide range of benefits, using 15 indicators that include road disruption, mental health, access to services, pollution and market access for crops, fruit and livestock. This holistic approach has been applied retrospectively to a sample of road infrastructure projects funded by the betterment program to understand the full benefits that investments in resilient road infrastructure can generate. The insights and learnings from this experience may be useful to other organisations who are considering the broader benefits of infrastructure resilience.  

To support organisations interested in looking beyond avoided losses from disasters to consider the brooder benefits and costs of resilience, QRA are sharing reflections, initial insights and lessons learned from their work to develop the SAVi tool. 

Rebecca Morris
Queensland Reconstruction Authority

Enabling investments in adaptation, resilience, and recovery through inclusive engagement and quantifying avoided costs and benefits from value creating opportunities  

CSIRO and Value Advisory Partners have developed the Enabling Resilience Investment (ERI) approach as a structured way to help make informed decisions about investing in adaptation, disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate resilience.  The approach allows for the integration of resilience and DRR concerns and opportunities into the development and delivery of investment cases in a range of contexts. It supports an inclusive engagement approach, incorporating local knowledge and values to build an understanding of the proximate and root causes and effects of disaster risks and system-wide interventions to address challenges.  

ERI was used at Port Adelaide Enfield (PAE) – a pre-disaster, precinct scale, and urban infrastructure context, prone to regular coastal and stormwater flooding and inundation.  Stakeholders were supported to build the case for resilience investment through: 

• Identifying new value creation and funding strategies associated with identified place-based adaptation and risk mitigation options 
• Evaluating community benefits and beneficiaries 
• Facilitating partnerships across levels and portfolios of government.   

The DRR and resilience measures identified included raising critical infrastructure above projected sea-level rise, new sluice gates and levees, and increasing local amenity with green spaces. The work identified beneficial outcomes from the interventions including jobs, improved infrastructure and transport connectivity, social capital, natural capital, and increased economic activity. The analysis identified 66 benefits for 22 beneficiary groups, building the economic and financial case for funding and investment.  

This project demonstrated that collaboration/coordination across government portfolios and levels and building shared understanding of the total value created by resilience investment are important steps in broadening the options and opportunities as the basis for seeking public and/or private funding and financing.  ERI can be applied to other regions seeking to identify pathways for resilience projects and investments; and has helped to identify the capabilities needed at the national-scale to enable scalable resilience assessments.  

Russell Wise
CSIRO

A growing awareness of risk exposure among community and business is changing the way insurers think. 

Modelling Adaptation Options for Primary Industries  

Climate change is expected to cause significant impacts on primary industries. With the help of climate impact modelling, primary industries can prepare and adapt to ensure future production remains profitable and sustainable. It is increasingly recognised that adaptation to climate change is already required for primary industries, and the sector’s challenges will likely intensify as emissions continue to build. Farmers and growers have started implementing adaptation practices to help their enterprises adapt to small changes. Adaptation options are readily available to some industries, whilst others are in progress or have the potential to be developed. Despite the crucial need for adaptation, ensuring each strategy is thoroughly assessed is still necessary to understand which adaptation strategies will be most appropriate and worthy of the investments required to develop and implement them to ensure a resilient future for primary industries.  

Perennial horticulture industries are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their long-term investment. The NSW cherry industry has identified several climate impacts that will likely affect yield and quality in the future, including softness caused by heat, decreased chill portion accumulation, and the need for cooling mechanisms during the post-harvest period to protect subsequent bud formation. Adaptation strategies such as shade netting have been proposed to address these impacts to reduce heat stress and its impacts on the fruit. 

Adaptation is often proposed based on potential impacts, but few are modelled. Multi-criteria analysis is a highly flexible tool that can address many challenges in understanding the impacts and potential responses to climate change over complex systems. Using this method, we can measurably assess adaptation strategies against climate impacts and demonstrate how an adaptation strategy targeting a particular climate impact during a key phase in crop development could affect other production elements. Thus, we highlight the value of thorough assessments of adaptation strategies over the full production cycle of a commodity. 

Funding: This work has been completed as part of the NSW Primary Industries Climate Change Research Strategy funded by the NSW Climate Change Fund. 


Bethany Ellis, Jessica Fearnley, Jane Kelley, James Lawson and Joanna Pardoe 
Department of Primary Industries, New South Wales, Australia 

Farming in the future: a Climate Impact Assessment Framework for Primary Industries in New South Wales 
 

Primary producers in New South Wales (NSW) are increasingly being impacted by climate change. These industries are critical to ensuring food security for communities, and thus, developing viable pathways to climate change adaptation for primary industries is becoming increasingly pressing.  

There is a driving need for comprehensive information across the range of primary industries to inform effective policy and planning at a state and regional level. Integrative, cross-sector analysis of vulnerability to climate change across the primary sector can highlight future risks and opportunities and identify where incremental or transformational adaptation might be necessary. 

In Australia, sophisticated biophysical models are available for several key primary industry sectors, but not all. The disparity in model availability means that some commodities have historically been overlooked and not examined, leaving those industries unclear about future risks and adaptation needs. 

Here we present a scalable approach to modelling climate change impacts on primary industries. Our framework uses a transparent multi-criteria analyis modelling approach combining data from published research and expert elicitation, and is particularly amenable to describing under-researched commodities. A key feature of this project is that the models for all commodities were developed in a consistent way, and the climate impact assessments use the same historical and future climate projection data. This allows direct comparison and integration of the outputs between commodities and biosecurity threats. 

We demonstrate the use of this framework to model mid-21st century climate impacts for 28 commodities and 14 biosecurity risks. The commodities were selected based on economic value to NSW, size of the industry in NSW or importance as an emerging or growing industry for NSW. The resulting sector-wide climate impact assessment of primary industries provides guidance to the primary sector on navigating the challenges of climate change. 

This work was completed as part of the NSW Primary Industries Climate Change Research Strategy funded by the NSW Climate Change Fund. 

James Lawson1,2, Bethany Ellis1,2 and Jane M. Kelley1,2, Joanna Pardoe1,2 

1Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Unit, Agriculture 
2Department of Primary Industries, New South Wales, Australia

Reflections on four ways to anticipate future climates with farmers 
 

Over the last two decades, SARDI Climate Applications has worked on climate adaptation with the grain and wine grape industries in southern Australia. A challenge for adaptation is anticipating future climates. With varying degrees of success, we have used four complementary approaches to imagine the future; model the future, test the future, remember the future and visit the future. This presentation provides a reflection of what worked and what was less successful.    

Modelling the future has been the dominant approach and relied heavily on running climate models through impact models such as the cropping simulation model APSIM. The strength of this approach is the use of plausible climate scenarios and the ability to simulate the interaction of changes to temperature, evaporation and rainfall patterns and carbon dioxide. A weakness is a concentration on problems that can be dealt with by the crop models. Clarifying which climate models to use and parameterising the crop models can be time consuming. 

Testing the future is a more bottom-up approach of considering how a farming system will cope with different levels of warming and drying. Although there is the danger of considering implausible climate futures, the transparency of this approach seems to encourage discussion.   

Visiting the future refers to physically or mentally travelling to a warmer or drier location. Goyder’s Line established in 1860s and the concept of shifts in Goyder’s Line always generates discussion. A problem of spatial analogues is an over emphasis on climate rather than other factors such as soils. In some cases, growers struggled to relate to the very different scale of dryland cropping and viticulture in the warmer, drier locations.  

Remembering the future entails asking what worked during recent stress. Although this might limit thinking about future stresses, this approach has been productive. One reason is the salience of the latter years of the Millennium drought (2007-2009). Another reason is the engagement with a strong sense of place, and history of place, held by many wine grape and grain growers.  

Acknowledgements: Series of projects funded by Grains Research Development Corporation, Wine Australia, Commonwealth Government and SA Government. Partnerships with industry groups, CSIRO and Universities of Tasmania, Adelaide and Melbourne.  
 

Peter Hayman, Dane Thomas and Bronya Cooper 
South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), Hartley Grove Road, Urrbrae, SA, Australia  

Northern Australia Climate Program:  Empowering beef producers to manage climate risk through an innovative approach to research and end user collaboration 

The Northern Australian Climate Program (NACP) is a collaborative project linking research, development and extension work to “improve the capacity of the grazing industry to manage drought and climate risk across northern Australia” (J. McBride, 2019, pers. comms.). This region of Australia (north of 30°S) support around 15 million head of cattle, forming part of Australia's economically important red meat export market (supplying 3% of world's beef). 

The unique framework of NACP links climate, agricultural, animal and ecology scientists from Australia and the UK, together with local extension officers called ‘Climate Mates’.  The local Climate Mates are located across northern Australia and together with researchers, create a successful end-to-end program, with a local focus.  

The framework includes (i) climate model development in form of convection parametrisation improvements over the tropics, (ii) developing innovative forecast or management products (e.g., flash drought, monsoon burst rainfall, green date) that help producers manage risk; and (iii) extension work where scientists and Climate Mates facilitate the education of beef producers and adoption of new forecasts into on ground planning. This is achieved through targeted education, webinars, property visits and workshops with both producers and researchers.   

In this presentation, we will discuss an innovative case study of NACP's impact on the beef sector: the development of the rainfall burst forecast.  We will show how the design, implementation, and ultimately, the operational release of this forecast was a result of unique collaboration between producers and researchers. The framework of NACP demonstrates the powerful outcomes that can be achieved for research and product development through collaboration of researchers and end users.  NACP also demonstrates there is a growing need to shift research focus in a more practical direction for measurable on ground outcomes and practice change when addressing climate change mitigation. 

(The Northern Australia Climate program is funded by Meat & Livestock Australia, Uni SQ and  Queensland Government) 
 

Tim Cowan1,2, Sally Foreman1, Chelsea Jarvis1 
1 Centre for Applied Climate Science, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia  
2 Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia. 

Thinking outside the box. How risk quantification can inform prioritisation and strategic decision-making for adapting assets and infrastructure. 

Understanding where to start with adapting assets and infrastructure is a major challenge, particularly when risk and asset managers are poorly resourced to manage climate risks across large asset portfolios. Compounding this, climate risk assessments can be subjective and inconsistent, and the benefits and opportunities of adaptation are difficult to objectively identify, quantify and prioritise.

This presentation will highlight recent work for the NSW Government’s Asset and Liability Committee using climate risk quantification approaches that consider hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The approach assessed insurability to identify prioritisation opportunities, improve oversight, and identify high risk assets for action that can deliver short- and long-term financial benefits of adaptation.

The presentation will present findings of an analysis of public assets which found that 5% were considered commercially uninsurable in 2020, with this increasing to 9% by 2050. This and other key risk quantification metrics enables opportunities for more informed decision-making and prioritisation of adaptation projects. Another key lesson is the value of pulling in different perspectives to help solve the challenge (e.g. insurers, hazard leads, financial risk managers, asset managers, etc).

Christopher Weston, Senior Project Officer, Adaptation Practice, Office of Energy and Climate Change, Treasury, NSW Government

Aaron Coutts-Smith, Manager, Adaptation Practice, Office of Energy and Climate Change, Treasury, NSW Government

Building Climate Resilience in Western Australia; the Climate Adaptation Strategy and overview of the State Government’s expanded adaptation response
 

The Western Australia Government recently released its Climate Adaptation Strategy, which builds on the Western Australian Climate Policy (2020), and the Climate Resilience WA (2022) Direction paper, and existing adaptation initiatives.  The Strategy sets out a coordinated, collaborative plan to support Western Australian industries, cities and regions to identify and manage climate impacts and enhance climate resilience. 

The Strategy was developed in consultation with Aboriginal people, local governments, business peak bodies, community organisations and researchers. It provides a Vision and Principles to guide action over the medium term and is supported by over 30 actions led by over a dozen state agencies.  To support delivery of the Strategy, the Government’s May 2023 State Budget included almost $40 million to foster collaboration, and build climate-resilience in communities and key economic sectors.  

The Strategy identifies four directions to support and accelerate climate adaptation across the State:  

1. Produce and communicate credible climate information and resources 
2. Build public sector climate capability and strengthen accountability  
3. Enhance sector-wide and community partnerships to unite and coordinate action  
4. Empower and support the climate resilience of Aboriginal people.  

This presentation will provide an overview of the WA Climate Adaptation Strategy, the State Government’s expanded adaptation response program, and how this systematic approach aims to build a more climate resilient WA. 

James Duggie,
Department of Water and Environmental Regulation 

Development of the Western Australian Emergency Management Sector Climate Change Adaptation Plan. 
 

In Western Australian (WA), the State Emergency Management Committee (SEMC) is driving the development of the WA Emergency Management (EM) sector Climate Change Adaptation Plan (WA-CCAP).  The SEMC is clear that reform is required to emphasise building resilience to the impacts of climate change through increased prevention and preparedness in the WA EM sector, and within the community.  

The SEMC will provide strategic advice through the development and implementation of plans to guide the EM sectors’ adaptation to climate change. It is projected that this work will contribute to reducing the systematic risk of community vulnerability to climate change; build resilience to impacts of climate change across the sector; assist local governments to identify and undertake preparatory work required to respond to climate change; and provide guidance to the EM sector to aide its preparation and adaptation to climate change.  

The Climate Change Adaptation Program has been established to manage the development and delivery of the WA-CCAP and the subsequent implementation of the recommendations. To ensure that knowledge across the EM sector is collected, considered, and utilised where appropriate, considerable consultation with government agencies, non-government organisations and the community has been undertaken. Nationally, one jurisdiction has developed a climate change adaption plan for the EM sector and other sectors have published their plans for adaptation to climate change. Extensive research into adaptation methodology, existing climate change adaptation plans and other sectorial adaption plans has been undertaken to inform the development of a robust WA-CCAP, based on best practice, to support the EM sectors adaption for sustained capability for the continued support of the WA community into the future.   

Kate Grimwood
Department of Fire and Emergency Services

Climate Science Initiative WA; Describing the science, partnerships and stakeholder engagement behind WAs climate projections, and how it will shape future policy
 

This presentation will provide an overview of Western Australia’s Climate Science Initiative (CSI WA) which is producing the most comprehensive local climate change projections for Western Australia to date. Collaboration and partnerships are at the heart of the CSI WA. It is being led by the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (DWER) in partnership with the NSW Government and Murdoch University through the NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling Project (NARCliM), and the Pawsey Supercomputing Research Centre.  

The projections will be CORDEX compliant and model a low and high future emissions scenario at a grid scale of 4 km initially for the south-west of WA and then expanding to north-west WA. The projections will help governments, business and communities to understand and adapt to the impacts of climate change.   

This presentation will describe the partnership model, downscaling methods and milestones that underwrite the first and second phases of the CSI WA initiative. It will outline the business case of the project and features of the interstate and multi-stakeholder collaboration model, and highlight its achievements to date relevant to scientific progress, partnership development and internal/external stakeholder engagement and communications strategy. The presentation will also include lessons learnt and outline our objectives with regard to: the communication and integration of the projections in state policy decision making; stakeholder communication and engagement, including with interstate and national initiatives, and discourse, to achieve adaptation and resilience outcomes for the public good. 

Sharna Nolan, Program Manager and/or Tamara Pinkerton, Science Communicator 
Department of Water and Environmental Regulation,Government of Western Australia

Resilience in local government assets 

The Adaptive Community Assets project assessed the exposure of local government built and natural assets across Greater Melbourne to climate hazards (covering bushfires, coastal and inland flooding, and heatwaves), under current and future climate scenarios. 32 local councils participated in this study.  

The aim of the project was to estimate the average annual cost of damage to council assets from exposure to climate hazards; estimates that now form the ‘do nothing differently’, or ‘zero adaptation’ base case against which councils can assess a range of adaptation options.  

Using a cost-benefit framework developed in an earlier project phase, the average annual damages are estimated at between $90-$120 million in 2023, $210-$300 million by around 2050, and $400-$540 million by 2100. The results show that average annual damages will increase significantly as hazards become more frequent and as more assets become exposed under climate change. Heatwaves, which cause widespread but minor damage, were identified as having the most significant impact, followed by coastal and then inland flooding. Bushfires were not found to cause significant average annual damages relative to other hazards. 

As councils update their base case information and add-in indirect and intangible costs, they can then undertake their own cost-benefit analyses of climate adaptation options and integrate climate change considerations into their financial and asset management plans. The results of this study also enable a region wide cost-benefit analyses of climate adaptation options to be undertaken. 

The project was funded through a partnership between the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action and the four Greenhouse Alliances in Greater Melbourne. It is a component of the Regional Adaptation Strategy for Greater Melbourne. 
 

Mitchell Perry1, Stephanie Doumtsis2, Jim Binney1, Boris Lam1, Isabel Haro1 
1Natural Capital Economics 
2Alluvium Consulting Australia 

Bridging the chasm: is regulation disrupting communities?

In the past 10 years, the finance sector has become increasingly focused on the physical risks associated with climate change.  This increasing awareness of physical risks associated with climate change has been accompanied by new regulations and reporting related to climate risk (both physical and transition risk). 

Monetary authorities around the world are developing new supervisory and regulatory frameworks to ensure that financial institutions are adequately managing their exposure to climate risk (eg stress testing).  This allows investors to make more informed decisions about where to allocate their capital and encourages financial institutions to take steps to manage their exposure to climate risk.  However, there remains a divide between investors, regulation, and the communities most impacted.  This chasm may exist as financial decisions may not always consider the communities they represent. 

In this presentation, some of the trends will be discussed through XDI’s work with the finance sector, outline the need to bridge this gap between regulatory decisions and the stakeholder communities most affected by these decisions and provide some potential solutions to engage and build the resilience of these communities.   

Rebecca Cunningham
The Climate Risk Group

Climate risk, sovereign bonds and the role of adaptation in investment  

The global finance sector sees climate influence on sovereign bonds coming fast. S&P has described climate change as a “global mega trend” for sovereign risk.  

To bring these issues to the surface, XDI released a world-first comparison of the physical climate risk to the built environment in over 2,600 states, provinces and territories. The Gross Domestic Climate Risk (GDCR) benchmark foregrounded risk to major centres of the global economy. Global cities and centres of economic activity, particularly in Asia, ranked in the top 200. Three Australian states are in the top 100. 

One of the repeated questions that has been asked about this dataset is whether it takes adaptation into account.  Jurisdictions that rank highly may start to see “capital flight” in the absence of a compelling climate resilient investment framework and adaptation planning. The Principles for Responsible Investment has a pilot framework in development on Assessing Sovereign Climate-Related Opportunities and Risks and two of the key aspects of the framework relate to adaptation policy and adaptation finance.  

XDI’s Gross Domestic Climate Risk benchmark demonstrates the escalating damage of climate change extreme weather hazards on densely populated and economically developed areas. Extreme weather draws on public finance, impairs trade and affects GDP. This work underscores the futility of “divestment” as a strategy for avoiding the costs of climate change. Huge centres of global trade, finance, food production and manufacturing are in the path of climate change hazards: investors and banks cannot hedge or trade their way out of exposure. Pricing physical climate risk in financial markets makes the case for government policy frameworks for adaptation and resilience.  

The presentation will highlight key findings from the GDCR analysis and discuss the global finance sector’s interest in sovereign climate risk and the role of adaptation planning and finance in investment confidence.  

Stephanie Ziersch
XDI

Integrating management decisions and insurance to drive climate adaptation in the agricultural industry 
 

Insurance is a crucial topic for research, as it has the potential to offer farmers new options for self-managing climate risks. However, the key research challenge is how we effectively use adaptation and insurance together to ensure that (i) adaption remains viable and (ii) insurance is affordable. The challenge of designing affordable insurance options for the agricultural industry is also becoming more important and challenging as climate change and insurance premiums rise. Theoretically, the application of adaptation measures should reduce the risk of climate-related losses and hence the demand for insurance, thereby rendering insurance more cost-effective and viable. However, this hypothesis has not yet been tested. The knowledge gap stems from the lack of research on the potential integration of adaptation and insurance, and the need for quantitative investigations in this area to determine how these two domains can work in tandem, and whether they could lead to better adaptation outcomes. This project is integrating insurance solutions with optimal crop management strategies to maximise profitability and income stability. For example, this project will deliver innovative insurance options to help offset the financial effects of extreme drought and heat events should farmers plant in the optimal window to enhance yield potential and profitability. By developing ‘fit for purpose’ affordable insurance products this project will help drive climate adaptation, grow the self-reliance and performance (productivity and profitability) of the agricultural sector, and strengthen the wellbeing and social resilience of rural, regional, and remote agricultural dependent communities. The present study aims to establish a theoretical framework for combining adaptation and insurance to improve income stability in responding to drought and climate variability and change. Results of the preliminary analysis on the integration of management and insurance will be presented.  

Acknowledgement
This project received funding from the Australian Government’s Future Drought Fund. 

Thong Nguyen-Huy
University of Southern Queensland

Enhancing Climate Adaptation in Agriculture: Exploring the Dynamics of Soil Water Availability due to Compound Drought and Heatwaves across Australia 
 

The Bureau's climate and National Hydrological Projections show mostly drying trends in soil moisture across Australia, due to the increase in projected evapotranspiration as well as variable trends in precipitation. Moreover, the frequency and severity of droughts and heatwaves are also projected to increase across Australia, partly connected to changes in the land-atmosphere coupling, which further intensify soil moisture depletion and drought. Extended periods of dry soil moisture conditions can exacerbate the vulnerability of agricultural fields, limit crop yield, and threaten the regional food security. As such, the agricultural sector needs reliable information on current and future soil water availability (i.e., soil moisture in the accessible range for plants) for an enhanced climate adaptation in the future. Understanding the impacts of compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events on soil water availability is crucial but not yet well-understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, we investigate the historical trends of root-zone soil moisture as well as the dynamics between soil water availability and CDHW events during the extended summer (November to March) across Australia. We use various high-resolution (~5km) daily gridded datasets from Australian Water Outlook and Australian Gridded Climate Data for the 1961-2019 period. To explore the nature of rapid soil moisture depletion during CDHW events, we calculate the Soil Moisture Index which is useful for identifying drought affecting crop growth. Our results are aiming at the characterisation of the historical spatio-temporal hydroclimatic patterns leading to limiting soil water availability across Australia, as well as the impacts of CDHW events on soil moisture depletion. This study will help Australian farmers to estimate their current vulnerability to changing soil moisture during normal and severe climatic conditions as well as helping to identify locations that might be suitable for a specific commodity, thus supporting future sustainability and adaptation to climate change.  
 

Navid Ghajarniaa*; S. Sharmilaa; Ulrike Bende-Michlb; and Wendy Sharplesa 
a Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 
b Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra, ACT, Australia 

Is a collation of Australia’s primary industries climate impact studies enough to support adaptation?  

Climate adaptation in agriculture involves modification to existing systems, relocation, changing industry and/ or larger transformations. To support these various adaptation actions, government, industry and farmers require climate risk assessments for a broad range of production types across broad geographic areas and evaluations that are comparable within and between industries. To consider the suitability of the existing peer-reviewed literature to meet this need, we reviewed 188 studies that evaluated quantitative climate change risk to Australia’s primary industries (cropping, livestock, horticulture, forestry, fisheries and biosecurity threats). We considered the studies in terms of industry diversity, geographic coverage and study comparability. We found each area to be lacking. There was a skewing of research towards cropping and biosecurity (64% of all papers) with wheat particularly studied, featuring in 25% of all papers. At a state level, geographic coverage of effort appeared evenly distributed, however gaps emerged at a state-by-industry level. For example, in Queensland greater effort has been directed to cropping and horticulture, despite livestock being a greater economic contributor. Study comparison was found to be difficult. This was due to a substantial range of impact methods used (over 90 different approaches) and use of varied historical and future time periods. This review does not discount the value of any individual study but questions our ability to simply collate this research to get a holistic understanding of risk in terms that would support a range of adaptation activities. We recommend three key actions to help meet the need for climate risk assessments that aid adaptation action. (1) Co-development of a standard set of method guidelines for agricultural climate impact assessments, (2) fill industry and geographic gaps, and (3) improve transparency in study method descriptions. 

This work has been completed as part of the NSW Primary Industries Climate Change Research Strategy funded by the NSW Climate Change Fund. 

Rebecca Darbyshire, Stephen Johnson and Joanna Pardoe 
CSIRO

Farming on the edge: assessing the impact of historical and future climate change and adaptation options in the Australian Mediterranean cropping margins 
 

The boundary between land suitable for low rainfall grain cropping and the arid interior suitable for extensive grazing has a history in South Australia dating back to Goyder in 1860s and in West Australia to Brookman in the 1900s.  Historical and future shifts in the crop/climate margins focus discussion on how farmers might adapt a changing climate. We integrate the outputs of climate analysis and crop simulation modelling to explore the limits to crop production at the inner margin of cropping in WA and SA. We discussed the results with low rainfall farming growers and advisers in the regions and provide an overview of their responses to aid in our interpretation. Farmers maintained that they were continually adapting to season-to-season variation and to the changing climate. Most farmers felt that their current business model was working and that they hadn’t been forced to make drastic changes by climate change. There was a belief that improved technologies (e.g., new varieties) and agronomy had served them well in the past and would be able to keep pace with the effects of any climate change. Most of the changes over the last 30 years had been within cropping and grazing enterprises rather than changing enterprises to alternative land uses. The uptake of no-till farming was ranked as the largest change which enabled farmers to make better use of rainfall. Farmers had also changed cereal varieties and adopted new crops. Input costs (fertiliser nitrogen) had been reduced by growing more pasture and crop legumes. Many farmers felt that one of the first transitions to a warmer drier climate might be an increase in the number of livestock at the expense of cropping. Other ways to manage this risk included hay crops in rotation and containment feeding of livestock. Some farmers felt that transformation may be driven not directly by climate change but rather by the policies associated with climate change. 

Uday Nidumolu1, Peter Hayman2, Andrew Fletcher3, Noboru Ota4, Bronya Cooper2, Dane Thomas2, Chao Chen3, Vanessa Round5, Christina Ratcliff1 
1CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Adelaide Laboratories, Gate 4, Waite Rd, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia 
2South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), Hartley Grove Road, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia 
3CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Floreat, Western Australia 
4CSIRO Health & Biosecurity, Floreat, Western Australia 
5CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Victoria 

Use of multi-decadal climate projections changes farmers perceptions of future risk and adaptation decisions 

Australian farmers are facing increasing climate variability and uncertainty, putting the future of the agriculture industry at risk. The use of climate projections (e.g., decadal and multi-decadal) is key to addressing climate risks and building climate resilient agricultural systems. Consequently, the development of climate services that include longer-term climate projections are increasing in Australia and globally. The Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA) platform is one example of this emerging use of longer-term climate projections to assist end-users in managing farm risks and opportunities. It provides geographic and commodity specific information tailored to agriculture. In this study, we engage with over 40 farmers from different regions and commodities across Australia to examine their use of climate projections, future risk perceptions and associated (potential and actual) adaptations. We used CSA to demonstrate location and agricultural commodity specific climate projections during the interviews. We found participants’ existing experience of weather and seasonal risks influenced how they perceived future climate risks. We also compared perceptions of climate risk before and after the demonstration of CSA, finding farmers identified more specific risks based on CSA projections compared to the risks identified pre demonstration. We found climate projections helped participants not only identify future risks but also assess the scale of the risks and subsequently prioritise them. These projections were also key in validating some of the adaptation measures taken in response to pre-identified risks. Additionally, participants highlighted how climate projections could provide necessary information to make decisions about their long-term investments regarding infrastructure and suitability of crops in their region. Our study shows that climate projections that are targeted to specific locations and commodities can help to raise awareness of the scale of longer-term climate risks and build capacity to anticipate, prioritise, plan and test adaptation decisions and strategies. 

Yuwan Malakar, Stephen Snow, Simon Fielke, Aysha Fleming, Emma Jakku 
CSIRO

Standardizing engagement and capacity development in Regional Adaptation Planning through Multilevel Governance praxis

Everybody can have a role in supporting adaptation to climate change, in part ensuring the ‘right’ decisions are made by the ‘right’ people which is critical for good climate change governance.  If governance is a challenge in managing natural resources, then climate change governance is certainly a super-wicked problem.

While Multilevel Governance has been applied to climate change internationally there is still a lack of common agreement on what it actually is.  For example, if and how it differs from polycentric governance.

We define MLG as the processes making up governing systems which are grounded in continuous (re)negotiations amongst multiple levels of nested organisations, and which result in (re)allocation of decision-making authority and responsibility based on the principle of subsidiarity.  Subsidiarity here goes beyond the delegation of authority and responsibility of decision making to the lowest level organisation possessing the capacity to make those decisions. Organisations best placed to take on specific roles may not have - nor been allocated the required resources to develop the relevant capacities.

Multilevel Governance facilitates stronger coordination of decision-making processes up and down the hierarchy as one outcome of negotiation processes. Stakeholder engagement beyond consultation and two-way communications builds trust and mutually beneficial partnerships in working towards sharing decision-making authority.

Regional Adaptation Planning in South Australia in the mid-2010’s provided a potential opportunity for exploring the application of Multilevel Governance. Several levels of organisation were involved in developing these plans from state government to community groups, each bringing their own perspectives and capacities but with limited resources. Critical enabling processes were central to the planning processes but failed to meet the levels required to justify the application of the neologism Multilevel Governance. These processes were not followed through into implementation of Regional Adaptation Planning, with the weak expression of subsidiarity constraining the devolution of power to those responsible for implementation.

Developing a comprehensive governance discourse and praxis through the explicit application of Multilevel Governance as a guiding framework would go a long way to strengthening partnerships and generating adaptation outcomes. This is about sharing power equitably so organisations can do what they are best placed to do. What would it take to move towards such a governance regime?
 

Barry Lincoln (PhD)
Dr Guy Robinson (University of Adelaide)

Who pays for adaptation? Moving from the beneficiary pays principle to a practical funding model 

Adaptation to the impacts of climate change, such as coastal erosion and sea level rise, will require significant and ongoing investment in a range of protection measures. The beneficiary pays principle suggests that those who benefit from a project should bear the costs of that project. However, clearly identifying benefits and beneficiaries and developing agreed funding models based on this information has been challenging for coastal land managers. 

Benefit distribution analysis (BDA) informs the application of the beneficiary pays principle and can inform funding models that distribute the costs of adaptation equitably across beneficiaries. Undertaking a BDA can be challenging, and there is little guidance on best practice approaches and methods. Key challenges include clearly defining beneficiaries, accounting for future development and use changes, and turning the results of a BDA into a practical funding model that is accepted by stakeholders.  

Given these challenges, few BDA and related funding models have been completed to date. Aither is currently working with City of Cockburn to undertake a BDA for coastal protection measures, and to work through some of these challenges. City of Cockburn will be one of the first councils in Western Australia to undertake this type of analysis. This project is a great opportunity to demonstrate the value that this analysis can deliver for local government and decision-making across Australia. 

This presentation will provide insights on how to transform BDA and the beneficiary pays principle into a funding model that is equitable and practical. This will include key principles to consider when identifying a funding model, such as simplicity, efficiency, and transparency. Insights from the presentation will be directly relevant to Councils engaging in adaptation planning and funding.  
 

Martijn Gough 
Aither

A collaborative web — the evolution of an interjurisdictional knowledge broker network to help users apply climate science research. 
 

Knowledge brokers form a key link in Australia’s climate service delivery chain—the production cycle from scientific research to usable information on climate impacts into the hands of decision-makers. Projections of future climate tell you what the future climate is likely to be like but may lack the interpretation of the local impacts of climate-related hazards such as floods and bushfires. These are needed to inform risk assessments and adaptation planning. Knowledge brokers form a bridge between climate scientists and end-users. Working alongside impact modellers, policy and decision makers, on-ground practitioners, and others we’re helping translate climate data and information into meaningful decision-ready content.  

Prior to 2019, there was a lack of collaboration and alignment between state, territory and Australian governments and science agencies producing future climate science information. This created confusion for users and hindered the development of Australia’s climate science capability. Users are demanding nationally comparable and robust decision-ready information, and over the last 4 years there has been an important shift towards government collaboration through the Cross-Jurisdictional Community of Practice for Climate Science (CJ COP CS). The success of this collaboration has led to the first-ever interjurisdictional knowledge brokering team within the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub, as well as the formation of the National Partnership for Climate Projections. 

These collaborations are bringing together the Australian Climate Science Community (including state and territory governments, CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, Australian government initiatives NESP Climate Systems Hub and the Australian Climate Service, as well as key universities) to develop consistent approaches to providing comparable, robust, authoritative and fit-for-purpose future climate information. With knowledge brokers at the centre of this collaborative web, involving stakeholders in co-design and co-production, we are helping shape the science to provide decision-ready information for climate risk assessments and adaptation planning. 

Ramona Dalla Pozza1, Kelly Barnes2, Sarah Bassett3, Helen Bloustein4, David Putland5, Graham Green6, Susan Sweeney6, Matthew Riley3, Ralph Trancoso5, Kathleen Beyer1, Vicki Barmby4 and Joseph Miller3. 

1 University of Tasmania,
2 WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation,
3 NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment,
4 VIC Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action,
5 QLD Department of Environment and Science,
6 SA Department for Environment and Water. 

A decade of cross-agency engagement, innovation & evolution: the Climate Wise Communities program from paper maps to 3D bushfire simulations
 

Victoria’s Black Saturday bushfire, the impacts of Climate Change and the very high bushfire risk prompted Ku-ring-gai to develop the Climate Wise Communities (CWC) program in 2010. It has since won multiple awards with the latest being the LG NSW RH Doherty (2021) award for Excellence in Communication.  

The CWC community engagement program is a long-term, iterative process founded on the Principles of Ecological Sustainable Development. Since 2010, it has regularly developed and integrated new research and technology ensuring it is effective and targeted across different extreme weather events. 

Importantly CWC has provided a tried and tested adaptation capacity building framework that joins together local government with relevant emergency services, land managers and health services (e.g., NSW Rural Fire Service, National Parks and wildlife and Sydney North Public Health Network). CWC has demonstrated how partnering with other agencies builds greater adaptation capacity than can be achieved individually. This has been achieved though relationship building, innovation and evidence-based community engagement.  

CWC’s community engagement workshops utilized research from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and RMIT University. Workshops used paper maps and LEGO® serious play methods, however, there was limited reach into the community. Hence, the workshop were converted into a website and has since been adopted by four councils including Noosa Council in QLD.  

Selling the community on the idea of climate change causing more extreme events was difficult. The next innovation was the incorporation of the Simtable® a 3D bushfire simulator into CWC workshops. When paired with a demonstration of the CWC website, participants have the awareness, knowledge and tools to make high quality extreme weather plans. The innovative use of the Simtable in community engagement for extreme weather preparedness led to four Simtable’s being purchased by 3 NSW Joint Organisations and one Council across NSW and QLD.  

Dr Jenny Scott – Ku-ring-gai Council – Sustainability Program Leader
Mr James Chan – Ku-ring-gai Council – Sustainability Project Officer
Ms Sam Tucker – Ku-ring-gai Bushfire Brigade, New South Wales Rural Fire Brigade – Community Engagement Officer

Climate Resilience Assessments for Existing Buildings - Results from a Pilot for the City of Adelaide

In June 2023 a pilot climate resilience assessment was commissioned by the City of Adelaide on a community building The Box Factory, 59 Regent St, Adelaide.  This was the first building out of six assets to be assessed.

The purpose of the assessment was to identify the preparedness of the building to the impacts of climate change and provide clear adaptation measures and actions to mitigate the effects of climate change.

A range of climate resilient related resources and guides were reviewed and considered to conduct the task, although none was found to fit the profile for assessment of existing buildings. A proposal was formed based on the standard ISO14091:2021 – Adaptation to climate change — Guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment, combined with an international resilience tool-kit and local asset management guideline.

The Council were comprehensively engaged to frame the study, and the assessment yielded a tailored, localised tool which meshed different approaches into a useful facility management tool for future asset planning, renewal and retrofit.  Stretching the study, the concept of “Resiliency Benchmarking” was presented, and assessing the building’s potential use as a climate refuge for the wider community. This paper will explore the resilience assessment approach and results.

Ben de Jonge, Director, Hyper-efficient Pty Ltd.

“So what? How does all this data help me?” – making good climate adaptation decisions in an uncertain but data-rich world 

Incorporating climate science is critical for understanding current and future vulnerability of water resources to climate impacts. Sophisticated climate/water models exist, and they are improving, but the gap between climate science and climate adaptation decision making continues to increase as more climate/water modelling is conducted and more data is produced. Climate adaptation decision makers are often overwhelmed by the number of different climate/water modelling approaches used, the inconsistency in the outputs from those different approaches, and the lack of practically useful guidance for how to deal with the uncertainties that are inherent to climate/water modelling. Improving climate/water models (or developing new climate/water models) will not necessarily address these issues. This talk summarises a recent project that addressed the “So what? How does all this data help me?” questions that climate adaptation decision makers typically ask when trying to link climate/water model outputs to the policy, planning and investment decisions they have to make to ensure long-term water service needs are met. It is demonstrated that what is required is (i) improved understanding into the strengths, and weaknesses of different approaches for incorporating climate variability and change into water modelling (and existing approaches for preparing climate inputs for water modelling) and (ii) improved ability to interrogate large amounts of water modelling outputs to help decision makers make decisions that are “good” irrespective of which plausible future eventuates and to answer the practical questions that need to be answered (e.g. with respect to water supply planning, what to change and when to change it?).

Anthony S. Kiem1,2, Danielle Udy2,3, Tessa Vance3, Lisa Walpole2  

1 Centre for Water, Climate and Land (CWCL), University of Newcastle, Australia 

2 Alluvium Consulting Australia  

3 Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia 

The impacts of colonisation on climate change adaptation pathways for contemporary Indigenous communities 
 

Colonisation has disrupted traditional ways of knowing and being for Indigenous peoples. To compound this invasive and pervasive disruption, Indigenous peoples must navigate the imminent threat of a rapidly changing climate. By critiquing the dilemma climate change presents for Indigenous peoples, through an Indigenous lens, it becomes evident that adaptation planning for climate change must be recognised as being part of the historical and ongoing impacts of systems of colonisation. How are contemporary Indigenous communities adapting to the present existential crisis of climate change? Indigenous peoples draw from knowledge, experience, and a cultural and spiritual connection to home, in its many forms, to survive and adapt to the impacts of colonisation. It is through this lived experience that Indigenous peoples are required again to adapt to these new challenges of climate change.  

This paper argues that to understand how contemporary Indigenous communities are adapting and will adapt, an acknowledgment and greater appreciation is required of how coloniality constrains decision-making and adaptation planning. By understanding these systems, we can better identify the ways in which Indigenous people are subverting current systems to adapt, as best as possible, and what might enable further adaptation and transformation. Data was gathered in the field, on Country, using an Indigenous Yarning Methodology. 30 participants were sought across two Island communities in Queensland, Australia, impacted by climate change: Masig Island, Kulkalgal Nation, Torres Strait and Minjerribah Island, Quandamooka Country, Moreton Bay. The data reveals that adaptation for Indigenous peoples is occurring and will continue to occur at a community level, achieving small wins against the impacts of climate change, while revealing at the same time deeply embedded colonial structures that inhibit greater efforts. This paper ultimately challenges researchers and practitioners to seriously consider the implications of these limiting, imposed, structural systems of colonial power and to prioritise a decolonial turn in adaptation theory and practice that will empower Indigenous peoples to further current adaptation efforts. 

Djarra Delaney
University of Melbourne

Urban nullius? Urban Indigenous People and Climate Change 

Climate change is impacting cities and urban regions in significant ways, and people living within them must work out how to live with and adapt to the changes they bring. Indigenous peoples are increasingly moving to and living in cities, yet how they experience climate change within them is not understood. While literature explores Indigenous experiences of climate change and how Indigenous knowledge is being used to combat it, this work is geographically located in rural and remote Indigenous territories—not cities. This paper presents the results of a review that sought to find out why this is the case. Our aim was to identify scholarship that discussed how Indigenous people are affected by climate change in cities. To do so, we undertake a narrative literature review, which analyses content to distil key concepts in the literature, which are then presented in the paper to form a narrative. We find a significant gap in the literature addressing Indigenous experiences and voices concerning climate change in cities. We argue that this is due to the ongoing legacy of settler colonization, which has erased Indigenous peoples from urban territories to the extent that even when they are visible, urban Indigenous people are characterized as inauthentic and vulnerable. We call for action to overturn this insidious form of urban nullius to reclaim and assert Indigenous voices on and about climate change and policy in cities. 
 

Melissa Nursey-Bray 1, Meg Parsons 2, Ariane Gienger 
1 = University of Adelaide 
2= University of Auckland  

Engaging Indigenous and local people’s knowledge and expertise in the co-creation of web-based climate adaptation platforms to enhance climate action and mutual learning

Climate change risks for New South Wales Aboriginal Land Councils: towards a useful method of analysis
Presented by: Heidi Norman and Sharanjit Paddam

Climate Risk Capability Initiative - Integrating climate risk to build adaptive capacity in the WA public sector.
 

We already know about the looming physical dangers of climate change in a general sense – a litany of climate hazards that include heatwaves, coastal flooding and an increase in the frequency and intensity of bushfire events. The Western Australian public sector is already taking measures to prepare, but there is an interesting challenge: most agencies are still developing their understanding of the specific impact that climate change will have on their operations. What are the risks to physical infrastructure and buildings? How will planning be affected? How much will it cost to increase our ability to cope? And how do we prioritise agencies’ adaptation actions to achieve the greatest benefit? 

This presentation will provide an overview of the Western Australian approach to address public sector capability and training needs, and support agencies on their trajectory to enhance their climate resilience. Taking a risk-based approach, the State Government has established a two-person Climate Risk Capability Initiative in October 2022. By advancing internal capability, agencies are encouraged to use their understanding of climate risk as a springboard to develop a robust and effective climate action plan; one that helps manage climate risk, understand opportunities, and can offer insights into the effective development of adaptation actions.  

The Initiative recognises the spectrum of climate maturity in Australian jurisdictions and their agencies. From this comes an opportunity for the Western Australian public sector to accelerate into higher levels of risk maturity by learning from more advanced organisations and government agencies, taking advantage of the resources and experience available, and tailor these to support agencies as they increase their commitment to address climate risks. Early activities and design of the Initiative will be presented, along with leading questions to stimulate a discussion beyond this presentation around barriers agencies encounter and how to overcome them. 

Dr. Anna Gstaettner 
Department of Water and Environmental Regulation,Government of Western Australia

Responding to climate risks in local government: using adaptation rationales to promote practical risk reduction
 

Hawkesbury City Council completed its first climate risk assessment and adaptation planning projects in 2012 and 2016. Last year council set about reviewing and updating this work. With several major back-to-back bushfire and flood events fresh in everyone’s memory, there was support for a different adaptation planning approach to reflect the inherent complexities of council service delivery in a world of compounding events and cascading risks. 

A multi-hazard risk assessment was undertaken, using storyline scenarios to support stakeholders to both identify risks to each council service, as well as to the organisation as a whole. A key feature of the approach was the focus on eliciting staff knowledge about how council activities, staff and volunteers, as well as council assets, are exposed to climate-related hazards. The process also focused on supporting staff to identify how the unique features of Hawkesbury City Council as an organisation, including its structure, governance, and specific service delivery models, have vulnerabilities to climate-related hazards in each service area that are specific to their unique region.  

This approach provided the necessary information to identify a holistic set of adaptation measures with strong risk-reduction rationales, in the same logic as Carr and Nalau’s 2023 concept of ‘adaptation rationales’. Five major Hawkesbury City Council-specific patterns of vulnerability and a major hot-spot area of exposure were identified as consistent causes of critical impacts to council systems from multiple hazards. Rather than selecting adaptation measures to address each risk, adaptation measures were selected to address each vulnerability and the hot-spot exposure. Actions that are under council’s direct control, including improvement in governance capability, were targeted to proactively address the ‘adaptation gap’ problem. The plan shows why measures need to be applied in unison to manage Council’s major climate risks and provides a clear line of sight for practical risk reduction.  

Ella Reeks (Alluvium Consulting), Jan Orton (Alluvium Consulting), Andrew Kearns (Hawkesbury City Council) 

Climate risk – a public board’s responsibility.  

As the physical hazards of climate change become increasingly pronounced and the global community transitions to net zero, it is more urgent than ever that public entity boards engage with, and manage, climate risks.  

In Victoria, public boards play a critical role in managing risks to public services, resources and assets, including hospitals, schools, transport, critical infrastructure, emergency management, parks, forests, catchments and waterways. In most cases, climate change presents foreseeable and material risks to these public entity interests, giving rise to liability risks for directors who breach their duty of ‘care, diligence and skill’ under the Public Administration Act 2004.  

In response, the Victorian Government published guidance in 2022 to support public sector directors to understand and fulfil their duties with respect to climate risk– Directors’ duties with respect to climate risk. The guidance is complemented by an optional director development module for new and ongoing board directors to build climate change competency and understanding. This follows the success of Managing Climate Change Risk: Guidance for Board Members and Executives of Water Corporations and Catchment Management Authorities released in 2019, which has been instrumental in increasing the authorising environment for climate action in Victoria’s water sector.  

Steered by the legal opinions of Noel Hutley SC and Sebastian Hartford Davis regarding directors’ duties under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth), the private sector has charged ahead on climate risk governance in response to rapidly evolving regulatory, legal and shareholder expectations. This guidance and training will bring Victorian public entity boards in line with private sector counterparts and support the consistent management of climate risks.    

This presentation will share the practical framework central to the guidance and training and explore the collaborative effort behind delivery as well as outcomes to date.  
 

Gervase McKinna, Senior Policy Officer, Climate Change Policy, Environment, Climate Action and First Peoples’ Group, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (Victoria) 

Emily Clark, Policy Officer, Water Sector Climate Change, Water and Catchments Group, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (Victoria). 

The Victorian Government Climate-related Risk Maturity Self-Assessment:
A tool to improve resilience to the physical impacts of climate change 

 

The Victorian Government has an ambitious climate change program. In addition, it has ongoing responsibilities to effectively manage climate risks to government operations, services and assets from the physical impacts of climate change. Governments need a complex suite of capabilities, at strategic to operational levels, to deliver these responsibilities and to build climate resilience.  

How can governments define effective climate risk management? How do we know if government departments are equipped with the capability needed? Climate risk maturity assessment is a means for departments to identify and communicate the elements of effective climate risk management, and to assess their maturity against good practice.  

The Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA) has established a climate risk maturity self-assessment tool. Under the governance of the Victorian Secretaries Board, departments and select entities are currently using this to complete a self-assessment to gauge their maturity in climate risk management. The results of which will be available within government later in 2023 and used to drive continuous improvement across the Victorian Government. 

This presentation will provide an overview of the DEECA climate risk maturity self-assessment tool. This will include the purpose of the tool, what DEECA has learnt in designing the tool, and how it aligns with the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) recommendations, and other authoritative sources that describe good practice climate risk management.  

The DEECA climate risk maturity self-assessment tool is in its first iteration – over time the bar will be raised in defining the high level of maturity in climate risk management. By sharing the journey so far, the aim is to connect with other jurisdictions and interested parties to discuss experiences in defining benchmarks for effective climate risk management.  

Jo Wallace, Manager Government Risk and International Relations, Climate Change Policy, Adaptation and Risk, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (Victoria) 

Uncertainties in modelling climate change-related flooding risks to property  

Analyses of climate change-related flooding hazards and the related risk to residential property values are subject to several sources of uncertainty (e.g., climate change scenarios, methodological choices, and input data uncertainty).  While uncertainty in the climate and global warming scenarios is widely cited and generally understood, other sources of uncertainty are rarely accounted for in analyses of risk to residential property values in New Zealand. But in order to form sound policies and mitigate the impacts of such risk, uncertainties must be reduced wherever possible.  To this end, the most important sources of uncertainty need to be identified and understood.   

A case study of permanent inundation risk to residential properties in Greater South Dunedin highlights large cumulative uncertainty arising from the additional combination of uncertainties associated with methodological choices. The magnitude of both property risk and uncertainty increases substantially over time towards the second half of the century.  While climate scenario uncertainties commonly appear to be large at face value, they are locally exceeded by uncertainty caused by methodological choices and model design (e.g., inundation model and flooding threshold, land elevation model, spatial resolution, or damage function). Relative importance of different uncertainty sources changes over time due to the non-linear rate of sea-level rise and flooding risk.  This study highlights ways that analyses of risk to residential property values can be optimised by acknowledging and mitigating uncertainty effects. 

Acknowledgements: 
Thanks to the Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden funding (UOO2019) that has enabled the STRAND project. We are also grateful to our project partners: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, CoreLogic, New Zealand eScience Infrastructure (NeSI), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), RiskScape and Griffith University (Australia). 

Quyen Nguyen a, Antoni Moore a, Ivan Diaz-Rainey ab ,Greg Bodeker c 
Simon C. Cox d, Murray Cadzow a, Paul Thorsnes a 

a University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
b Griffith University, Australia
c Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand
d GNS Science, Dunedin, New Zealand

Quantifying Road Flooding Risk for Victoria in a Scalable Multi-Hazard Framework 
 

Australian local governments are responsible for the full lifecycle of their assets including buildings, drainage networks, roads, footpaths, signs, parks, trees, playgrounds and other structures. Beyond general wear and tear, these assets are vulnerable to hazards such as floods, fires, storms and extreme heat. Future climate variability is predicted to change the frequency and severity of hazards which will in turn affect the maintenance requirements of the assets. This study presents a scalable method for quantifying hazard risk for council assets, under present and future conditions. 

The present framework is based upon the relationship of Risk = Consequence × Likelihood. For a particular hazard event of a given likelihood, the consequences (deaths, economic, social, environmental, etc) are each mapped to equivalent dollar values in logarithmic scale (e.g. consequence 6 is equivalent to $1,000,000) and so is the risk. This approach simplifies the interpretation of relative severity, facilitates combining and separating of hazard risks, and allows separation of risk geographically. 

A particular case study of flooding hazard risk across the whole state of Victoria, Australia was considered. MeshBlocks (standard statistical regions defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics) covering the whole of Australia and LGA boundaries were obtained and Victorian data for road casement polygons were obtained. The Victorian Planning Scheme overlay was obtained, from which the Special Building Overlay (SBO) and the Land Subject to Inundation Overlay (LSIO) polygons were extracted, which approximate 1% AEP flood hazard events. Flood and road polygons were intersected, and a nominal consequence damage per square metre was assigned for the flooded roads. Results quantified the flood risk for each MeshBlock across a single LGA and overall risk exposure for each LGA across the state. This approach is scalable to incorporate future climate projections to update the consequence and/or likelihood of this and other hazards.      

Raymond Cohen
CSIRO

Victorian Government Climate Risk Disclosure Statement – communicating government action on climate risks.  
 

With increasing domestic and international scrutiny on climate-related risk management, there is growing demand for Australian governments and public entities to develop climate-related risk disclosures. 

Appropriate disclosure can support confidence in, and understanding of, government action on climate-related risks to government assets, services and operations. The development of disclosures enhances governments’ ability to address the impact of climate-related risks and opportunities on their financial performance, and improve climate change planning, decision making and risk management. 

In October 2022, the Victorian Government Climate-related Risk Disclosure Statement 2022 was released. This is the first whole-of-government climate-related disclosure published by an Australia state or territory government – paving the way forward in public sector disclosure of climate-related risk management. 

By releasing the Disclosure, the Victorian Government was affirming its commitment to provide transparency to the community and investors about how it was managing climate change. The Disclosure outlines how the Victorian Government is managing climate-related risks to the state, and to the Government’s delivery of services to the community, and how Victoria is seizing the opportunities associated with the transition to a net-zero, climate-resilient economy. 

The Disclosure is aligned with international practice, including the recommendations of the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and the newly established International Sustainability Standards Board, and establishes a baseline for the Government to build from over time in future disclosures.  

The process of developing the Disclosure was useful for identifying opportunities to improve how the Government manages climate change, and ensure it has robust, effective systems in place to manage related risks and opportunities. Its development helped to build capability and a climate adaptation culture across the Government.  

This presentation will share the approach taken to adapt the TCFD recommendations to produce a whole-of-government disclosure, the collaborative effort behind the disclosure development, and the lessons learnt. 
 

Stuart Fawcett, Senior Policy Officer, Climate Change Policy, Environment, Climate Action and First Peoples Group, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (Victoria) 

Starting Yesterday: A Call for Urgent Climate Disruption Preparation

As a nation we are scarily underprepared for climate disruption. Despite decades of consistent and alarming calls from scientists and other experts that our physical world is facing major shocks and disturbance, with inevitable flow on consequences to our economic, political and societal systems, there is a default Business as Usual (BAU) inertia built into our governance, organising and decision making. An urgent re-imagining is required. 

What is a redefined role for the military and police as security threats and disruption grows? Where’s the discussion about individual vs government responsibility for property loss as the insurance industry withdraw from coastal, floodplain, and bushfire prone areas? When and how should our formal decision-making processes shift from BAU to emergency and back again in response to crisis and recovery afterwards? At what level of government and community are certain decisions best made, and what democratic processes are more suitable? How ready are we for rationing of essentials like food and water? 

Currently much of our emergency response (bushfire, SES) and broader support services (eg Meals on Wheels) are populated by a small number of increasingly overwhelmed volunteers.  As the frequency and intensity of emergencies increase, when and how do we transition to either a fully professional response, or broader community responsibility and capacity? 

And how do we increase community trust in our governance systems and institutions as our media and our politics become more ‘climate wars’ polarised? 

Building of trust and institutional resilience, and the strengthening of civil society, culture, and systems takes time, investment and practice. Although work is underway in many of these areas, it is far from the scale required and national, state and local coordination is lacking.  

A Whole of Government approach and a new relationship with community is urgently required. 

Craig Wilkins 
Chief Executive, Conservation Council of SA 
Member, Premier’s Climate Change Council

Maximising stakeholder engagement through software-enabled visualisation and assessment of climate risks and mitigation actions.

Climate change and its associated risks are considered as the most significant global challenges faced today and into the future. Yet in many cases, climate related risks are not managed adequately. Often, they are managed separately to wider risk management and outputs are not part of a continual improvement process. Climate change risk assessment and adaptation (CCRA) has been successful when there is meaningful engagement with all relevant stakeholders. Current processes are typically delivered with excel spreadsheets and reports that are not designed with the stakeholder in mind. Consequently, risk assessments can end up being box ticking exercises rather than an opportunity to build whole of life, cost effective resilience into the asset or organisation.

We have developed an approach that significantly improves engagement in CCRA through three key principles:

• People – People are at the heart of meaningful risk and adaptation planning.
• Process – Successful risk and adaptation planning needs to align with established organizational and/or project processes to ensure buy in, legitimacy and that recommendations can be actionable
• Technology – Ensure that the technology is an enabler to value creation.

The approach is based around a Risk Assessment and Adaptation Platform (RAAP). It hosts a risk database that includes risk statements and adaptation actions for asset types based on extensive experience across a decade of project delivery. It’s linked to a geographic information system (GIS) interface to visually display risks and associated metadata such as risk level, asset qualities and assessment or review date. The platform aligns with guidelines for risk assessment (ISO31000) and climate change adaptation (AS5334). We have found that stakeholders are more engaged when being able to visualise risk context. From a risk management perspective, the platform allows risk data to be summarised in dashboards and scaled from the asset or project level to the enterprise level easily.

Ken Lunty – Technical Director and National Lead, Sustainability
Tim Watson – Senior Digital Advisor, Sustainability

The right place at the right time: communicating climate change impacts to marine and coastal communities, Australia 

Effective communication is core to understanding and beginning to address (via adaptation and mitigation) the impacts of climate change, yet the development of appropriate climate communications is challenging. It is important to understand the multiple ways in which climate change is understood, including its complexity, and how to develop communications that acknowledge climate change as a chronic environmental stressor affected by risk, uncertainty, distance, and other factors. This paper presents the results of an Australian study that sought to understand how coastal communities understand, perceive, and engage with climate knowledge to build towards adaptation and future. The paper includes a summary of the scientific literature on multi-target communication strategies and (ii) best-practice approaches that optimises communication to and with the human community about the impacts of and adaptation to climate change in marine and coastal environments. 

Melissa Nursey-Bray
University of Adelaide

The National Environmental Science Program Climate Systems Hub 

The National Environmental Science Program (NESP) comprises 4 hubs and runs from 2021-2027. The Climate Systems Hub brings together climate science capability from the CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, Australian National University, Monash University, University of Melbourne, University of New South Wales, and University of Tasmania. The hub also partners with the Cross Jurisdictional Community of Practice for Climate Science, led through the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, to bring knowledge brokering capacity form across Australian States and Territories. The Climate Systems Hub aims to help shape national climate resilience by building a climate research program with practical on-ground results, integrated across broader risk and resilience initiatives for Australia. The hub provides an opportunity to further develop Australia’s climate science capability while working directly with adaptation practitioners. The Climate Systems Hub encourages strong, continued and embedded co-design between researchers, practitioners, Indigenous Australians, data-users and decision-makers to establish collaborative partnerships and ensure our science directly informs decisions, policies and adaptation responses. It values and commits to strong, lasting and respectful partnerships with Indigenous Australians. By enabling the integration of modern science and traditional culture and knowledge, the hub aims to facilitate the provision of knowledge to protect country in the face of climate change. The Climate Systems Hub will drive and undertake coordinated research across all four of the new NESP hubs through the cross-cutting Climate Adaptation Initiative. This presentation gives an overview of the research portfolio of the Climate Systems Hub. 

The Climate Systems Hub is funded by the Australian Government under the National Environmental Science Program. 

Simon Marsland
CSIRO

Talking climate: how communicating climate adaptation solutions can change behaviour and bridge the gap between acceptance and action 

The way in which we communicate climate change has evolved over time – for the better. We’ve moved from dropping facts and data on stakeholders and expecting them to act (more commonly known as the ‘deficit model’) to more nuanced and two-way communication approaches tailored for specific audiences, to focus on dialogue, engagement, co-design and sharing of knowledge.  

But until recently, information about solutions – specifically, adaptation to climate change – has not often been included in climate change science and impacts communication products and services. Failing to address adaptation represents a missed opportunity and may have contributed to the lack of effective action, despite significant efforts to communicate the urgency of climate change responses.  

This presentation will outline how effective communication of climate adaptation solutions and stories can lead to multiple benefits – for the acceptance of adaptation solutions and for communicating climate change more broadly.  

The presentation will illustrate, with case studies, the challenges experienced by science communicators when advising and assisting a range of decision-makers to disseminate climate-related information. We’ll also share communication strategies and tips we have found useful in overcoming some of these challenges to ensure stakeholders are empowered to implement adaptation solutions and act on climate change.  
 

Sonia Bluhm, Senior Science Communicator, Scientell 
Alysha Huxley, Science Communicator, Scientell 

Understanding your audience for effective communication
 

With recent years of extreme fire and flood the Australian media has never discussed climate change and adaptation more. Extreme weather events represent an opportunity to communicate the impacts of a changing climate and the importance of adaptation. The increase in media reporting is an excellent opportunity to communicate science and good-practice adaptation. Communication can empower populations and improve social resilience.  

To effectively build climate literacy and understanding of adaptation options, communicators need to understand their audience. The Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub conducts audience research across Australia. Audience segmentation is one tool that allows us to understand an audience and track their concern for climate change over time. By understanding the 6 Australias and the public’s response to climate messaging we can ensure targeted and strategic communications. Best-practice strategies consider using trusted voices as messengers, tailoring messages to target the understanding and values of an audience, and communicating where an audience is paying attention using non-persuasive techniques. These tactics also address communication challenges, such as communicating uncertainty and complex scientific jargon. 

Tahnee Burgess
Climate Systems Hub

Engaging householders to build climate risk literacy. 
 

Climate Valuation (CV), along with XDI is part of The Climate Risk Group which is a group of companies committed to quantifying and communicating the costs of climate change to all levels of community, government and industry. As an organisation, Climate Valuation is committed to democratising climate risk information and championing community based climate advocacy efforts.   

As part of building the climate literacy of individual property owners, we provide individuals and communities  with investment-grade physical climate risk analysis on a global scale.  Individuals can use our visual tools to understand the costs of climate change to their properties, leading to greater transparency, better decision making and improved community resilience.  

As part of its communication and engagement strategy, CV is working with the real estate industry to help integrate climate change risk insights into the property purchase lifecycle.  We have existing partnerships with a number of valuation companies, property intelligence providers & lending institutions, so that households can access information on climate risks at address, neighbourhood, suburb and regional scales in the process of buying, building, renovating or selling their home. We have also provided climate risk analytics to the Climate Council of Australia so that they can provide wide reaching access to climate risk information relevant to decision making.  ​​We have worked with banks and made recommendations for specialised products and services to improve customer resilience. 

We are developing an adaptation solution that will provide qualitative options for individual homeowners to improve the resilience of their homes - from simple, low cost DIY measures such as maintenance & simple upgrades to major structural changes.

The presentation will demonstrate how we use climate risk tools to provide insights and the communications and engagement strategies we use to build communities climate literacy and improve resilience across the real estate industry as a whole.  
 

Tamara Holt
Climate Valuation

The importance of phenology models for adaptation in annual and perennial crops 
 

Phenology models capture the relationship between climate and development. They can inform adaptation decisions as shown using three case studies: Wheat and grapevines as the most valuable annual dryland and perennial irrigated crops in South Australia and  almonds as the most valuable horticultural export from Australia.  

The cropping system model APSIM has been widely tested in the current climate and is commonly used to study the impact of climate change. SARDI has used local data to calibrate and test almond phenology models developed in California and after testing phenology models for grapevines SARDI has developed a new model based on local conditions.  
 

Grain growers are concerned over the earlier onset of hot and dry spring conditions. One solution is to shift the flowering window earlier by sowing time and variety selection. Although this pays off in dry years, there can be a yield penalty in a milder spring. Growers acknowledge that these milder springs will be rarer with climate change, but they remain important sources of long-term profit. Earlier flowering can also increase frost risk.     

Almond production currently requires cross pollination and there is concern over nonsynchronous flowering between co-planted varieties. An interim adaptation by the industry is to monitor changes in flowering time and release more bees to increase pollination. Self-pollinating varieties are being developed as a longer-term solution.  

Wine grape producers are observing earlier ripening and vintage compression created by later maturing varieties such as cabernet sauvignon and shiraz advancing in maturity at a faster rate than early varieties such as chardonnay.  This vintage compression creates logistical challenges at the vineyard and winery. While there are some ways to delay maturity, a longer-term solution may be to change varieties. This decision comes with substantial marketing risks.    

In all three case studies, phenology models are useful important tools to inform adaptation.  

Dane Thomas, Peter Hayman and Paul Petrie 
South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI)

HortCarbon Info, A new Web-tool enables growers of Horticultural crops to easily calculate their Carbon Footprint. 

The Australian Horticulture industry, unlike many Australian agricultural industry sectors lacked an accurate, greenhouse gas (GHG) calculator. 

The horticultural industry and individual business managers across Australia had no standardised, way to calculate their on-farm GHG Footprint. 
 

Queensland horticultural business managers had no way of comparing their on-farm emissions to other horticultural farms of similar size, or other agricultural sectors. 

National chains stores and food service companies wanted to know more about the GHG Footprint of individual suppliers.

How did horticultural farm emissions compare to those of cropping, beef, & dairy? 

In the 2021 – 22 Financial Year the Qld Governments Drought and Climate Adaptation Program funded the Horticulture Project Team to create an easy to use, confidential and publicly available Web-tool, to rectify this issue.

Australian horticultural business managers can now easily calculate their on-farm emissions using their fuel, nitrogenous fertilizer, electricity consumption, crop type and area, and cover crop details. The HortCarbon Info Web-tool is easy to use, quickly calculates actual emissions and allows the user to compare their emissions to those of similar businesses. The simple drop-down, “choice” menus streamline the GHG calculation steps and are complimented by the ability for the user to easily enter custom fertilizers, crops and their own on-farm actual yields.  

HortCarbon Info is informative, practical, educational, and easy to use. The simple interface contains an explanatory page, how to use page, the calculator, results, a “compare your emissions”, page as well as links to further information about GHG reduction, soil carbon, scope emissions, forestry and all the equations and emission factors. 

HortCarbon Info is housed on the secure Qld. Dept of Agriculture and Fisheries, Long Paddock website: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/dcap/horticulture-industry/ 

Funding: HortCarbon Info was funded by the Queensland Government Department of Environment and Science, delivered and managed by the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Drought and Climate Adaptation Program (DCAP). 
 

Project Leader – David Carey, Senior Horticulturist, Horticulture and Forestry Science, DAF Qld.
Project Team Members – Peter Deuter, Horticultural Consultant, PLD Horticulture; Yiru Chen, Horticulturist, Horticulture and Forestry Science and DAF. Dr Neil White, Principal Scientist, Horticulture and Forestry Science, DAF Qld. 

Modelling climate change adaptation on central Queensland beef enterprises
 

Understanding climate change adaptation required on beef production enterprises based on native pasture in northern Australia is challenging due to the complexity of the system studied, involving biophysical processes of pasture and animal production, herd management actions, economics, emissions, and the interaction among them. Simulation modelling is a powerful tool to assist the beef industry determine which approaches will ensure it remains economically viable over the long term. Here we model four climate change adaptation options to 2030 for a beef enterprise at Moura in central Queensland. We compare the enterprise metrics with those of the 2030 baseline (without adaptation) and the historical baseline period (1975-2013). To achieve this, we use a native pasture model (GRASP) to provide pasture production for a herd dynamics and livestock production model (CLEM, Crop Livestock Enterprise Model), The whole-of-farm model was parameterised using enterprise data collected by conducting interviews with the property owner. Datacubes of potential pasture production outcomes provided a simplified means coupling of the two models and allowed for feedback between the native pasture and livestock systems, allowing us to consider any changes in land condition through stocking rates and its effect on native pasture growth, animal weight gain, profit, and CO2 emissions. The four adaptation options were, selected by the local producer group, including improved pastures, improved reproduction, improved animal growth rates and improved rumen function. Simulation results showed that improved pasture is a promising adaptation pathway for Central Queensland, allowing for significantly increased herd size and enterprise profits while maintaining emission intensity. Improved rumen function also maintains the enterprise beef production, profit and emission intensity compared to simulations under the historical climate.  We anticipate that even greater benefits will be achieved by combining improved pasture with other adaptation options.
 

Duc-Anh An-Vo, Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland
David Cobon, Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland
Jo Owens, Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland
Adam Liedloff, CSIRO Environment

What’s the water cost of farming? Projecting mid-21st century water requirements for economically important crops in New South Wales. 
 

Anthropogenic climate change in the 21st century has caused warming, reduced rainfall and increased the frequency of climate anomalies across south-eastern Australia. These trends are projected to continue and intensify. Food production will be impacted by simultaneous increases in the amount of water required for crop growth, and decreased availability of water from atmospheric sources. 

To maintain food production in the coming century, we need to understand where crop water dynamics might be problematic, and which industries will be most impacted. A broad, cross-industry assessment of crop water demand can support climate change adaptation by guiding policy, regional planning and investment and informing research priorities. The New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (NSW DPI) has assessed the vulnerability of NSW’s economically important irrigated crops to climate change. Projections of future water demand are a key component of this assessment. 

We estimated crop water demand as the difference between crop evapotranspiration and rainfall and validated the resulting outputs against historical water use data. For crops with poorly characterised historical water use, we consulted crop experts to inform crop evapotranspiration parameters and to endorse the resulting modelling outputs. Historic, baseline water demand was modelled between 1981 and 2010 using climate data from the Australian Water Availability Project. Mid-century (2036 to 2065) future water demand was modelled for two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) using data from an ensemble of eight GCMs representing a range of plausible future climates. Our models were applied spatially across NSW at a resolution of 0.05° (~5km2). 

We present case examples from NSW DPI’s Vulnerability Assessment Project to demonstrate how understanding changes to the water requirements of important crops in the mid-21st century can inform climate change adaptation in primary industries. 

Funding: This work has been completed as part of the NSW Primary Industries Climate Change Research Strategy funded by the NSW Climate Change Fund. 

James Lawson, Bethany Ellis, Jane Kelley, Iain Hume and Joanna Pardoe 
Department of Primary Industries, New South Wales, Australia 

Climate Services to underpin adaptation action for Australian agri-business 
 

Climate services catering to the finance sector is a rapidly expanding market for research and consultancy providers. Agri-finance represents a unique problem space for climate services given the high levels of exposure and sensitivity of farming to climate-driven impacts, and the complexities of assessing changes in farming assets managed for multiple production and sustainability objectives.  Farm businesses manage climate variability on many different levels and their resilience to climate can vary significantly over short distances.  

Approaches to evaluating agri-business risk need to consider the underlying climate stress indicators for a particular farming system, its sensitivity to climate drivers and the pre-dominant mitigation potential of farm management practices. The finance sector requires scalable and generalisable approaches to informing their risk assessments. 

In this paper we consider challenges and opportunities in the application of climate information into agri-finance, using case studies to demonstrate: 

1. Reducing data asymmetry through tiered information rather than single risk scores.
2. Pitfalls and limitations of applying climate analytics given underlying uncertainty and incomplete knowledge.
3. Challenges in factoring in adaptation responses in future scenarios of risk.    

Using postcode level examples for cropping and livestock systems, our analysis showed that defining categories of risk based on a compilation of stress indicators can be sensitive to different methodological choices. Reducing the arbitrary nature of risk scores can be minimised if these methods are tractable and provide multiple lines of evidence in their derivation.  Adaptation can be assessed through explicit and implicit approaches using simulation modelling and methods that disentangle past productivity patterns from climate signals.  

We advocate for transparency and common standards for undertaking analyses such as vulnerability assessments or portfolio stress testing and practices that foster equal access to information to enable data democratisation and scrutiny and a shared understanding of potential impacts and adaptation options for agri-business. 

Patrick Mitchell1, Rebecca Darbyshire2 and Dave Henry3 
CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Hobart, Tasmania 
CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, ACT,  
CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Werribee, Victoria 

Adaptive tools for using robust decision-making for water infrastructure adaptation.
 

Multiple interacting hazards at the coast pose a challenging problem for policy makers. Water infrastructure providers are faced with uncertainty as to the timing, frequency, and magnitude of coastal hazards such as sea level rise, coastal inundation, erosion, groundwater intrusion and rainfall-runoff events, while servicing three waters systems (freshwater, stormwater and wastewater) and constraining costs. Examples from overseas and in New Zealand have shown that many existing wastewater treatment plants are susceptible to flooding after 25-30cm of relative sea-level rise. Failure of wastewater treatment plants to reach their operational objectives and expected Levels of Service can have widespread biological impacts and social and political ramifications. Quantitative methods are required to identify sequences of adaptive actions, known as pathways, which will be robust in achieving objectives under a range of deeply uncertain futures resulting from population change, climate change and sea-level rise. These actions need to be able to create ongoing flexibility to move between different options and pathways rather than producing stranded assets. Using a Robust Decision-Making (RDM) approach in conjunction with Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) enables identification of adaptation tipping points, before adaptation strategies no longer meet objectives, and facilitates timely decision-making on adaptation actions. 

We use RDM within a DAPP process to assist the future adaptation of two wastewater treatment plants on low elevation coastal plains. Both plants are near present day mean sea level and vulnerable to multiple hazards including flooding, groundwater intrusion and sea level rise. We outline the problem scoping, systems mapping, modelling and RDM processes followed in these projects, before presenting the results of the modelling, their applications, and lessons learned. 

Our research is funded through the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment via the Deep South National Science Challenge project ‘Adaptive tools for decisions on compounding climate change impacts on water infrastructure’. 


Allison, A.1, Lawrence, J.2,3, Stephens, S.1, Kwakkel, J.4, Singh, S.5, and Blackett, P. 1 

1National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand 

2PS Consulting, Wellington, New Zealand 

3Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand 

4Technical University Delft, Den Hague, The Netherlands 

5National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Christchurch, New Zealand

Research informing adaptation to climate change in the Murray-Darling basin 

Regional communities and remote towns in the Murray-Darling Basin have in the past run out of water and required drinking water to be trucked in. Climate change is projected to decrease mean annual rainfall as well as increase inter-annual variability, particularly across the southern Murray-Darling Basin and thus the security of water supplies is likely to decrease further into the future.  

The vast majority of climate models, as well as our understanding of changes in global and regional circulation patterns point to a drier future for the Murray-Darling Basin, particularly in the south, with consequently more frequent and severe droughts. CSIRO and Deakin University are currently working with other partners including the Murray-Darling Basin Authority on a program of work known as the Murray-Darling Water and Environment Research Program (MD-WERP). It seeks to strengthen scientific understanding of the Murray-Darling Basin through generating new knowledge, innovation and tools used to underpin basin analysis and planning. We are working with policy makers and water managers in State and Federal government to assess the impacts of climate change and climate adaptation options on hydrological, ecological and socio-economic outcomes in the Murray-Darling Basin. This will allow planners to consider a wide range of adaptation options, primarily those that minimise the impacts of drier conditions on the environment, irrigators and the Basin community, along with models that allow assessments of trade-offs between these disparate water users to be made. 

This presentation will provide an overview of the multiple lines of evidence indicating a drier future for south-eastern Australia. It will then consider the implications of this drying trend for water resources in the Murray-Darling Basin. Finally, it will assess adaptation options designed to mitigate the negative impacts of these changes. 
 

David A. Post1, Francis H. S. Chiew1, David Robertson2, Rebecca E. Lester3, 
Joel Bailey4, Alistair Korn4 and Matt Coleman4 
1CSIRO Land & Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 
2CSIRO Land & Water, Clayton, Victoria 
3Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria 
4Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, ACT 

Towards a seamless probabilistic flood inundation modelling capability across the disaster response timeline 

Floods are one of the most significant climate-related disasters and constitute the second-most deadly natural hazard in Australia, only exceeded by heatwaves. Understanding historical, near-future and far-future flood events is a critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and developing effective adaptation strategies. In order to effectively manage flood risks across the disaster response timeline of prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, it is crucial to have a seamless flood modelling approach, especially considering the projected changes in flood intensity and frequency under climate change. For immediate response and evacuation planning short-term forecasts of a few days are needed, while seasonal forecasts are used for longer-term flood risk mitigation planning and resource allocations during the recovery phase. And long-term flood prediction can help with decadal planning for climate change by identifying high-risk areas, assessing infrastructure vulnerabilities, and informing land-use decisions. In addition, scenario planning is used by decision makers to identify a range of potential outcomes and impacts, and thus a probability driven approach is required. Our study aims to leverage historical to multiweek to seasonal hydrological forecasts, river routing, high-resolution DEMs, and earth observations to develop a seamless probabilistic flood inundation modelling capability (ProFIM) across Australia. Our ProFIM approach will be used to generate short to medium-term flood forecasts, ranging from a few days up to several weeks to seasonal outlooks for decision support. Future work will entail decadal projections to support planning, identifying projected changes in flood event severity and frequency. In summary, this study highlights the importance of flood modelling and forecasting for managing flood risk in the context of climate change. 
 

J. Hou a, W. Sharples b, K. Bahramian b, C. Pickett-Heaps a, F. Woldemeskel b, C. Rüdiger b and E. Carrara b 
a Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia 
b Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 

Exploring leadership for municipal climate change adaptation: a case study of four Tasmanian councils. 
 

As the level of government closest to the community, local government has a vital role in the development and implementation of climate adaptation policies and plans. Substantial resources are allocated by local governments (municipal councils) nationally and internationally to understand and respond to the challenges and opportunities presented by a changing climate. However, major breakdowns in the ability of councils to move from planning to implementation of adaptation responses have been widely observed. This presentation shares key findings from current case study research with four Tasmanian councils that explores leadership for municipal climate adaptation and the factors affecting decision-making and resource allocations for municipal adaptation governance, policy, and practice.  

Our research examines three key questions: 

• In what ways do council elected and executive leaders exert influence on climate adaptation planning and implementation within their organisation? 
• How do issues of authority and capacity interact and influence each other as determinants of municipal climate adaptation outcomes? 
• Which elements can be considered key to advancing the mainstreaming of climate adaptation responses in municipal policy and practice? 

As a first stage of the research, we undertook a systematic quantitative review of the global literature, assessing drivers and barriers to municipal adaptation planning and implementation. In response to the first research question, we find municipal adaptation mainstreaming can be considered a function of two overarching factors – authority to adapt and capacity to adapt.  Authority to adapt refers to the authorising environment – or mandate - for adaptation action by a municipal administration. Capacity to adapt refers to access to resources, professional networks, and supportive organisational systems and culture, that enable local governments to introduce adaptation measures. In-depth interviews with 25 Tasmanian local government elected and executive leaders, and key staff, subsequently explored authority and capacity for municipal adaptation, to help answer the next two research questions. 

Research funding - This PhD research is supported through an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship and a Natural Hazards Research Australia Scholarship. 
 

Nina Rogers1, Vanessa Adams1, Jason Byrne1, 
School of Geography, Planning, and Spatial Sciences (GPSS), University of Tasmania1  

The evolving approach to climate adaptation in the City of Port Phillip 

Since 2009 when the City of Port Phillip completed its first internal assessment of projected climate change risks and developed a Climate Adaptation Plan, we have been on a journey to embed how we respond holistically to the ever increasing and urgent challenge of climate change.  

Through sharing our approach to assessing and responding to climate change risks, find out how Port Phillip has been on a journey to build staff capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change, how we have collaborated regionally with South East Victorian Councils to assess how vulnerable our assets are to climate change and how we have partnered with universities to research how heat modelling can influence structure planning in South Melbourne. 

Evolution also requires sharing the challenges experienced along the way and in the interest of helping others learn from our mistakes what we could have done differently. There’ll be honest and frank sharing of the projects that didn't quite go as planned.  

And lastly, we share our struggles - and ask for your insights – into identifying measurable indicators to help us understand if we are reducing risk and vulnerability. 

Renae Walton
City of Port Phillip

Sustainability and climate action in the Arts and Cultural sector

Adelaide's festivals are not only a celebration of art and culture, but they also have the potential to transform the city into a global icon for climate action, adaptation and sustainability. Adelaide has already taken the first steps towards a sustainable future by increasing renewable energy adoption and reducing emissions whilst increasing economic growth (decoupling), but this status is yet to be fully realised and incorporated into the city's collective identity.

By incorporating cutting-edge sustainability and bold action into their programming and organisations, Adelaide's festivals showcase the city's sustainable practices to a global audience and inspire others to follow suit. Visitors from all over the world can learn about the city's initiatives and be inspired to take similar action in their own communities.

Festivals provide an excellent opportunity for experimentation and innovation. With a commitment to sustainability at the heart of every festival, Adelaide's festival organisers can use these events to trial new technologies and strategies that have the potential to transform the city into one of the most sustainable and liveable cities in the world.

To accelerate public action towards sustainability, the arts can play a crucial role. Creative outlets, bring science and the arts together, making complex information more accessible and inspiring individuals to take action. The arts can also bring communities together, foster a sense of collectiveness, and ignite a passion for sustainability.

That is why Adelaide’s major arts and cultural festivals have come together, facilitated by Festival City Adelaide, to develop a Roadmap and Action Plan that articulates their collective impact goals and targets. The result is a cohesive and comprehensive approach to tackling climate action. In this presentation, we will discuss the benefits of sector-wide collaboration, strategic outcomes that the South Australian festival sector seeks to achieve together, and key learnings for collaborations with other industry associations.

Climate Change Adaptation and Access to Justice: The Experience of Community Legal Centre's in a climate changed world 

Law determines climate change adaptation. Climate and disaster justice is fast becoming a priority for Community Legal Centres (CLCs) across Australia as CLCs experience extreme weather with the communities they work with.  From tenancy to emergency management obligations and liabilities to human rights to public land management, CLCs advise and advocate for access to justice and legal issues that influence, and often determine, climate adaptation outcomes.   

The role of law in community and national resilience is rising as issues of insurance, consumer and financial rights, tenancy and planning law determine vulnerabilities and risk, as well as policy and pathways towards transformation. Climate Change compounds preexisting legal needs such as family violence, debt/consumer issues. Climate and disaster justice seek to promote sustainable and just solutions to the challenges posed by climate change. CLCs are working closely with communities to ensure they have access to the resources and support they need through all the phases of adaptation, prevention, preparation, response, and recovery including addressing legal needs and access to justice.    

It is also vital that Australia have models of legal governance where law itself has adapted to climate justice. Adaptive law and governance models across all jurisdictions are essential to avoid maladaptive legal outcomes that result in further climate harms to communities.     

This presentation will share experiences from CLCs across Australia working on legal systemic transformative approaches to adaptation with examples from Gippsland, the Kimberley, Loddon Campaspe, Bushfire Legal SA, Northern Rivers and Townsville plus the specialist legal services in tenancy, insurance and environmental law. From grassroots services to law reform issues, CLCs are pivotal in ensuring resilience for impacted communities and contribute to the national conversation on issues such as buy-backs, social security, planning law, public housing and extreme heat, evacuation procedures, human rights as well as advocating for governance models that ensure place based and community led resilience are prioritized.   

Bronwyn Lay
Climate Justice and Disaster Response Lead 

Understanding adaptation through social research 

Through the Climate Change Fund, the NSW Government has delivered a range of programs designed to assist households and businesses save energy and money, improve energy reliability, affordability, and improve the resilience of communities across NSW to climate change. In order to properly assess the social and health impacts of these programs, DPE undertakes social research that provides the evidence base for understanding said impacts. This involves two types of social research work: 

The first involves conducting pre and post surveys with program participants and stakeholders, which provides data and insights that assist in evaluating the social impacts of those specific programs. However, these program impacts need to be understood in the context of broader changes in NSW and society at large that may be taking place during a program’s delivery, such as COVID, natural disasters, or rising energy costs. This requires a second type of social research work that provides baseline data upon which to compare CCF program impacts. In the social research conducted by DPE, this consists of three ongoing wave surveys amongst NSW residents: 

The Enviro-Pulse survey provides quarterly data from a structured random sample of the NSW population. 

The Climate Change Fund Control Panel survey provides longitudinal data from an established panel of NSW residents. 

The Community Appreciation of Biodiversity survey provides annual assessments from a random sample of NSW residents. 

This presentation discusses the value of social research data sets of this kind for measuring the social impacts of climate adaptation, including their accumulating value over time, modular structure to serve specific data needs, and complementarity with program specific surveys to provide robust outcome evaluations. 

Claudine Moutou, Andrew Glover, Mari Jaervis. (Social Research) 
NSW Department of Planning and Environment

How to close the gap between theory and practice in climate change adaptation and change the way we plan and implement adaptation
 

Climate change adaptation (CCA) is an urgent global challenge that requires multidisciplinary efforts to deliver effective, aligned, useful and sustainable outcomes. However, current approaches and tools have been slow to translate into robust action due to their lack of relevance regarding the ground conditions and demands. This shows that much of the academic theory on adaptation guiding the adaptation process is disconnected from practice. This theory and practice gap represents a fundamental underlying factor causing notable barriers and challenges in the adaptation. Therefore, understanding and addressing the factors that create a gap between adaptation theory and practice remains a global challenge. The study will present a novel Theory-Practice Gap Framework that helps to explain how and why the gap happens in adaptation, and most importantly, how to address it. The Framework explain the different dimensions and factors that lead to the emergence of the theory-practice gap while also identifying a range of drivers and solutions.  

The Theory-Practice Gap Framework is based on transdisciplinary knowledge from multiple disciplines that have studied this gap. The framework has been further grounded in climate change adaptation through workshops with practitioners and researchers with the aim to understand how the gap happens in adaptation, identify its causes and establish pathways to close it. The Framework’s knowledge will be useful for adaptation scientists, practitioners and policymakers who are interested in developing more integrated theory-practice solutions for robust and effective climate adaptation.  
 

Arteaga Estefania, PhD Candidate – Griffith University (Australia) 
Biesbroek Robbert, Associate Professor at the Public Administration and Policy group of Wageningen University (Netherlands).  
Nalau Johanna , Senior Lecturer– Griffith University (Australia)  
Howes Michael, Associate Professor– Griffith University (Australia)  

The climate change adaptation planning decision-context: A reflexive analysis of the Australian Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Program

The important role of regional and local governments for achieving adaptation is well recognised. In practice, however, adaptation initiatives have struggled to gain traction. Reflexive analysis of past climate change adaptation programs provides valuable insights into the limitations of these programs and offers valuable lessons for the design of future programs. This research reflects on the Australian Government’s NRM Planning for Climate Change program 2013-2018.  

Semi-structured expert interviews were undertaken with Australian regional NRM practitioners, who were asked to reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of the NRM Planning for Climate Change Program. Results from these interviews were analysed against the ‘VRK” system, which emphasises that the available adaptation decision options are located within an existing socio-political decision-context, and this occurs at the interface of societal values, rules and knowledge.  

The results reveal key values, rules and knowledge interactions that were manifest at the regional scale influenced the design of adaptation initiatives and constrained the achievement of successful adaptation outcomes. Four common themes emerged across the expert interviews that constrained the context NRM adaptation planning activities rolled-out: 1) political uncertainty and leadership; 2) dominant policy and planning discourses; 3) strategic coordination and action; and 4) climate change information delivery.  

Ingrid Baker
BMT

Climate Adaptation Heuristics: Hindering or Advancing Adaptation?  
 

Climate adaptation heuristics are rules of thumb that have developed over time to explain what climate change adaptation is and means. For example, many now advocate that adaptation is a local issue and should be decided by local communities whereas others see adaptation as a regional or transboundary issue that extends beyond the notion of ‘local’. While adaptation heuristics are useful in simplifying adaptation and enabling decision-making on what level particular decisions should be made, if they are faulty, they can also significantly hinder our efforts to adapt. This presentation discusses the evolution of adaptation science and heuristics, examines the diversity of heuristics in use, and also pinpoints to their strengths and weaknesses.  

This presentation makes a significant contribution towards critical discourse on climate change adaptation and in particular its cognitive foundations. It provides clear examples of adaptation heuristics and opens up opportunities for critical discussion as to how our mindsets and ways of thinking guide our decision-making on how we proceed with adaptation science, policy and practice. Adaptation heuristics as a growing strand of adaptation science is fundamental to the discussions on how adaptation agenda should be shaped going forward and what heuristics are we opting for when deciding what innovation, implementation and even maladaptation look like and why.   

Nalau, Johanna  
Senior Lecturer – Griffith University (Australia)  

Using hyperlocal intergenerational networks to facilitate collective adaptation action  

Addressing the existential threat of the climate crisis in diverse community settings presents complex challenges. Interventions that draw upon the social and human capital of neighbourhoods to strengthen community understanding of climate change, identify vulnerabilities at a hyperlocal scale, and align decision making with locally relevant concerns and threats can yield positive outcomes (Harrison et al., 2022).  Power to the Future is a local government initiative that uses intergenerational exchange to foster locally relevant climate solutions through collective learning experiences that prioritise the temporal, social and affective dimensions of climate change. Local school aged children, working in collaboration with seniors and supported by hyperlocal environmental groups and networks are normalising climate change and environmental protection behaviours using digital and cultural storytelling tools, Council meetings, advocacy and co-design of a family-focussed action program. In this way, the energy and emotions of youth can be harnessed to inform decisions that impact them, developing a sense of agency - recognised by psychologists to ameliorate growing climate-related anxieties in young people (Hickman et al., 2021). This approach ensures sustained climate action is embedded in local government and community networks now, and seeding future actions and actors into an uncertain climate future.  
 

Dr Tania Leimbach (University of Technology Sydney) Suzanne Dunford and Alejandra Torres (Waverley Municipal council) 

Conditions and Catalysts: insights from a systematic review of research on the enablers of adaptation 

Increasing emphasis on climate change adaptation is reflected by the steady growth in research on adaptation over the past decade. Yet within this field limited consideration is given to factors which enable climate change adaptation despite their importance in translating planning to implementation. We present a systematic review of the empirical literature on enablers of climate change adaptation. The review finds that current understanding of enablers is often restricted to specific contexts, leading to diverse typologies of enablers with limited consistency across studies.  

In this presentation we propose that the diverse array of enablers of climate change adaptation can be classified into two distinct determinants: conditions and catalysts. Conditions can be considered as the underlying, often slow to develop factors that create the opportunity for adaptation to occur. Much of the literature is focussed on conditions, often linked to a reduction in barriers or disincentives for adaptation. We define catalysts as more rapid changes that play an active role in affecting adaptation. Though there are fewer examples of catalysts to adaptation, they are often associated with agents making purposeful actions to reduce vulnerability, and with ideas about “widows of opportunity” and “triggers” of change. 

Funding: This research is part of project 2.1 Enabling Climate Change Adaptation Best Practice, funded by the National Environmental Science Program Climate Systems Hub.  

Tia Brullo1, Jon Barnett1, Elissa Waters2, Sarah Boulter3  
1.Geography Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne 
2. Social Sciences, Monash University 
3. Geography, Planning and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania.  

As an entrepreneur, educator and advocate for Adelaide’s standing as one of the world’s most liveable cities, Martin Haese builds bridges between environmental and economic priorities.

Martin is the Chair of the Premier’s Climate Change Council, providing independent advice to the Minister for Climate, Environment and Water on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating and adapting to climate change.

In 2014, Martin was elected as the 78th Lord Mayor of Adelaide, a public office he held until late 2018. He was a guest speaker at COP21 in Paris in 2015 and the World Cities Summit in Singapore in 2018. He is the former Chief Executive of South Australia’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry and recently appointed as Special Envoy to Singapore and Southeast Asia for Trade and Investment for the Government of South Australia. 

Professor Nicola Spurrier is the Chief Public Health Officer for the Department for Health and Wellbeing, being appointed in 2019. The Chief Public Health Officer is responsible for statewide preventative health activities including the identification and management of communicable diseases. Professor Spurrier’s role includes advising the Minister and the Chief Executive of SA Health about proposed legislative or administrative changes in relation to population health. Professor Spurrier specialises in developing and implementing policies and programs across child health, obesity prevention and Aboriginal health. She also has extensive experience in health protection and promotion, public health partnership and health diplomacy activities.

Professor Spurrier is a dual qualified medical specialist, public health physician and paediatrician, with 32 years’ experience within SA Health including 13 years in the Department for Health and Wellbeing.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Professor Spurrier has been instrumental in South Australia’s effective virus response and continues to take a personal focus on the health and wellbeing of every South Australian.

Dr. Brenda Lin is a Principal Research Scientist with CSIRO Environment leading the Adaptive and Liveable Cities Team.

Her research examines how natural systems or components of natural systems can be maintained or integrated into an increasingly developed landscape to provide ecosystem services that optimise both environmental and human well-being. 

Her primary research is focused on global environmental drivers of landscape change and the resulting effects on ecosystem services, especially climate regulation services and impacts to human health and well-being. 

One area of focus has been in urban ecological systems where she examines the relationships between vegetation cover, environmental services, and human health. Prior to CSIRO, Brenda was based at the US Environmental Protection Agency in Washington DC with the Global Change Research Program researching question of resilience to climate change in socio-ecological systems at multiple scales.  Prior to her work at the EPA, Brenda was at The Earth Institute at Columbia University working on agricultural development and climate change adaptation for small-holder farmers in Brazil and India. 

Kath is a conservation scientist with a love of living and working in remote areas. She grew up and studied in Sydney, completing a PhD in ecology in 2010, pursuing rock-wallabies through mountainous places.

She spent six formative years living in the remote Kimberley in Western Australia, where she worked with a tight team of land managers, scientists and traditional owners.

Kath now leads an NGO in outback South Australia where recovery of threatened species and desert places is enabled by courageous research. Arid Recovery is home to Australia’s largest predator-proof fenced reserve and has been a living laboratory for more than 25 years.

Kath likes to be at the pointy end of conservation challenges and loves collaborating and connecting across silos. She enjoys contributing to her community as Chair of the Roxby Downs Business Forum and is passionate about championing people and communities living on and caring for country.

Building a heat safe city

Known as the ‘silent killer’, extreme heat causes more fatalities in Australia than all other natural hazards combined. People living in the city can experience increases in heat-related illness, power outages, and disruption to transport services and outdoor events. The City of Melbourne is committed to reducing the threat of extreme urban heat for all, particularly vulnerable people. 

To better address how we respond to the risks associated with extreme heat the City of Melbourne has established an improved approach to coordinating heat action across the organisation which not only links to latest data and evidence, but also recognises the importance of working with community to best understand their needs.  

In October 2022 the City of Melbourne joined the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Centre’s City Champions for Heat Action initiative. As part of this partnership with Arsht Rock we appointed Chief Heat Officers for the City.  

With the appointment of the Chief Heat Officers an opportunity arose to utilise this position to help be more coordinated, cohesive and robust as an organisation in our response to extreme heat. 

This includes: 

Establishing a Heat Leadership Group consisting of senior staff accountable for heat action delivery within their portfolios  

Using data and technology to understand heat risk and inform intervention projects. 

Advocating on key issues including retrofitting public and social housing and additional support for vulnerable people. 

By being a City Champion for Heat Action, City of Melbourne was able to better prepare and coordinate for hot days last summer with increased media attention and activities. With new data and tools, we are well placed to build the resilience of our community and neighbourhoods to the high temperatures expected for this coming and future summers. 

 

Candace Jordan,
Climate Change and City Resilience, City of Melbourne 

Let’s beat the heat! Investigating cool refuges as an approach to helping vulnerable members of the community stay safe and cool during extreme heat  

More Australians die from extreme heat than from any other type of natural disaster.  

Extreme heat can affect everyone, but some members of the community are more at risk due to their health, age or socio-economic status. 

During days of extreme heat, demand for community services can change as people seek cool refuges. Increases in visitation to free, airconditioned public spaces such as libraries and recreational centres are often experienced.  At the same time, some services may be limited or reduced.  

Campbelltown City Council is undertaking a project to understand whether the vulnerable members of its community want or need to access cool refuges during extreme heat events, whether they are able to access these refuges, and whether the current refuges available are meeting their needs. Gathering this baseline understanding will help the Council identify shortfalls and opportunities to better help vulnerable people keep cool and safe during hot weather. 

The project involves comprehensive community engagement and research including: 

• Establishment of a Cool Refuge Community Working Group 
• Community surveys/workshops  
• Literature review including case studies from Australia and overseas  
• Auditing of Council facilities for use as cool refuges now or through augmentation 

The project is being co-designed with the community and over phases so that as findings emerge, Council can change its tack to ensure its approach to supporting the community during extreme heat is supported by the community.  This includes Council understanding: 

• Is there appetite from the community for cool refuges? 
• If yes, how and where should cool refuges be provided? 
• If yes, who can Council partner with to help provide cool refuges?  
• If no, how else can Council support its community during extreme heat? 

The learnings from this project can be applied by other local government and community organisations to co-design approaches to support communities during extreme heat.  

Funding sources:
Disaster Risk Reduction Grant from the South Australia Fire and Emergency Services Commission (SAFECOM) 
Campbelltown City Council  

Nicole Halsey and Maria Zotti  
URPS

The global National Park City movement: connecting people and nature in urban environments for health, resilience and sustainability 

Adelaide has joined the international family of National Park Cities, declared in December 2021 and the second in the world after London. What does this mean for building capacity and resilience in addressing the many challenges facing cities? 

While a National Park City is essentially about bringing people and nature together, critical to the health and liveability of cities, it is also about much more than that. It provides a springboard to engage with more people, more of our community, to address inequity, to be more inclusive and work more closely with First Nations people. It is a new catalyst for highlighting the value of green and blue spaces, and for addressing the health and wellbeing, climate, economic, aesthetic, natural resource, biodiversity, food and sense of place benefits of nature in cities that have been acknowledged as important for a long time now. In addition, being a National Park City provides opportunity for leadership both nationally and internationally. 

Cities are our primary human habitats and people have known for some time that we need a new vision for cities. Nature-based solutions must be part of inclusive planning processes to mitigate against and adapt to climate change, to restore functional ecosystems and improve environmental health, and to improve human health - social, physical and mental. We've learned a lot, and accept the value of science, technology and innovation. We also now understand the value of nature in cities. 

Becoming a National Park City provides refreshed and new opportunities to bring the whole of greater Adelaide along on the journey towards more liveable, sustainable, engaged and empowered communities. Climate adaptation is an obvious and key part of this journey. 

Sheryn Pitman
Green Adelaide

Intra-urban risk assessment of occupational injuries and illnesses associated with hot weather. Evidence form Greater Adelaide, Australia.
 

Increased risk of occupational injuries and illnesses (OI) is associated with hot ambient temperatures. However, the existing evidence of risk estimation is limited to large regions at the city or provincial scales. For effective and localized occupational health risk management, spatio-temporal analysis should be carried out at the intra-city level to identify high-risk areas within cities. This study examined the exposure-response relationship between ambient temperatures and OI at the intra-city scale in Greater Adelaide, Australia. Further, the projected risk of OI was quantified in various climate change scenarios. 

The temperature-OI association was estimated using a time-series study design combined with Distributed Lag Non-linear Models. Daily workers’ compensation claims (2005-2018) were merged with 5 km gridded meteorological data of maximum temperature (oC) at Statistical Area Level 3 in Greater Adelaide. Future projections (2006-2100) were conducted using downscaled climate projections and the risk was quantified using log-linear extrapolation. The analyses were performed in R 4.1.0. 

The overall OI risk was 16.7% (95%CI: 10.8-23.0) at moderate heat (90th percentile) and increased to 25.0% (95%CI: 16.4-34.2) at extreme heat (99th percentile). Northern Adelaide had a higher risk of OI for all types of workers at moderate heat, while western regions had a high risk for indoor industries. Southern and eastern regions had a higher OI risk for males, older workers, and outdoor industries at extreme heat. The projected risk of OI is estimated to increase from 20.8% (95%CI: -0.2-46.3) in 2010s to 22.9% (95%CI: -8.0-64.1) by 2050s. Spatio-temporal risk assessment at the intra-city scale can help us identify high-risk areas, where targeted interventions can be efficiently employed to reduce the socio-economic burden of OI. 

Syeda Fatima
The University of Adelaide

Rising Temperature: Urgent Call for Indoor Thermal Standards for Housing 
 

Australia has experienced a marked increase in extreme heat events, resulting in adverse health outcomes. Climate change projections suggest that these events will become more frequent and severe, posing further threats to public health. There has been a growing concern about the impact of indoor temperatures on the health and wellbeing of Australians, particularly vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and low-income households. Studies have shown that the synergistic impact of urban overheating and heatwaves can cause a rise in average indoor air temperature of up to 5.8°C, a decline in passive survivability of up to 31% and a cooling penalty of up to 650%. 

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a temperature band of 18–24°C, with a recommended lower limit of 2–3°C warmer for rooms occupied by vulnerable populations. However, there is no national minimum standard for indoor temperature in residential buildings in Australia. Studies have shown that indoor air temperatures in low-income housing do not meet the WHO standard, highlighting the importance of establishing a minimum standard for indoor temperatures. 

The establishment of a minimum thermal standard requires research and collaborative efforts from various stakeholders. A framework for implementing the standards needs to be developed, which could involve the identification of minimum requirements for insulation, air sealing, heating, and cooling systems, and guidelines for the use of passive heating and cooling strategies. Additionally, the input parameters used by the NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) could be modified to better capture the thermal comfort perceived by occupants. However, there are significant barriers to establishing minimum standards, including resistance from the construction industry, concerns about the cost of retrofitting existing homes, and a lack of political will to address the issue. Overcoming these barriers will require a concerted effort from the all the key stakeholders.  

Thilini Kaluarachchi
WSP

No retreat from the heat – Associations between temperature and aggressive behaviours in Australia 
 

Getting 'hot and bothered' isn't just a cliché - as temperatures rise, so too does aggressive behaviour and this is likely to be intensified by climate change. This presentation will discuss the findings from a 4-year research project on the associations between temperature and interpersonal aggression in New South Wales.  

The presentation will explore how the association changes over time (daily, seasonally) as well as by types of assault (domestic, non-domestic, sexual), premises (inside or out) and urban form (urban heat island, local green space).   

While relationships between rising temperature and interpersonal violence are seen in most contexts, there are striking inequalities by socio-economic factors like age, sex and income.  Urban form also has a significant and surprising relationship. For example, it could be expected that the effect of temperature on violence is less within the shelter of the indoors however this presentation will show that both domestic and non-domestic violence had a steeper temperature-related increase inside than outside. And while having more greenspace is associated with lower temperature-related violence, it depends on what type.  

The presentation will also show the findings from a study of over 7 million tweets by temperature, demonstrating that we are more likely to communicate aggressively in extreme heat online (and Mondays!) 

The presentation is interesting to anyone working in extreme heat, public health, community equity and vulnerable populations. The findings allow for targeted response strategies as well as improving projections of violence in a warming world. 
 

Heather Stevens
Macquarie University

Adaptation to air quality change from climate change future scenarios in Sydney metropolitan areas and New South Wales 
 

The future world is not only hotter but also higher frequency and intensity of wildfires and potential similar high frequency of dust storms. Both can be compounded and occurred at the same time causing severe air pollution episodes.  

Responding to climate change requires two approaches mitigation and adaptation. The first is based on using new technologies and other approaches to reduce or control air emissions so the heat-trapping process produced by greenhouse gases can be stabilised. The second is known as adaptation where human beings can adapt their lives to live with the new normal by exploring options to reduce risks from the harmful effects of heat waves, high temperature, drought resulting from climate change. Identifying the pattern and areas where high risks of air quality degradation due to these changes in meteorology, emission and events is the first step to formulate an adaption and mitigation strategy. 

Emission from dust storms and wildfire events is much larger than that from anthropogenic sources currently and expected in the future. Measurement records of extreme air quality degradation in the past and up to the present show that high particle and gaseous pollutants are widespread at regional scale and as a results high exposure to population in NSW. 

This study presents some of the results from the climate models predicted in the future and which regions in NSW that most likely susceptible to dust storms and wildfires in the future and hence the expected high pollution and population exposure. The NARCLIM1.5 results from a global climate model (GCM) ACCESS1.3 and 2 regional climate models (RCMs), J and K under RCP8.5 (“business as usual” or worst case emission) and RCP4.5 (“middle of the road”) emission scenarios will be used to assess the risk of occurrences of these types of events from 2070 t0 2085 as compared to the base cases from 1990 to 2005 in terms of precipitation and maximum temperature. 

Future work will focus on a framework to determine the effects of climate change on air quality and population exposure under different climate change scenarios, anthropogenic emission and projected regional population growth under different policies so that the best adaptation policy can be formulated to minimise population exposure and health.  Air quality modelling is central to this framework. 
 

Hiep Duc, Merched Azzi, Khalia Monk, Lisa Chang, Matt Riley 
Climate and Atmospheric Science Branch, Department of Planning and Environment NSW 

Managing heat stress: a case study from the developing world 
 

One of the greatest immediate risks from climate change is from rising temperatures and the related impact on heat stress in the working environment. In Australia, the challenge is greatest for outdoor workers, for example in the construction and farming industries. In the developing world, the risk extends to the indoor environment, particularly the factory floor. Factory output and its export earnings are for many low- and middle-income countries key to development, and risks to the health and productivity of factory workers can have knock-on effects on the whole economy.  

In 2016-17, the Bangladesh Ready-Made Garment (RMG) industry generated USD28.14 billion, contributing 80.7% export earnings and 12.36% GDP, and employing 4 million people. Working conditions inside RMG factories are often difficult. Heat stress is a major factor which is expected to worsen in future due to global warming.  

We report results from a project to understand the exact nature of the heat stress risk to Bangladesh RMG factory workers at present and in a future warmer world, and to explore the potential to introduce sustainable cooling strategies which would reduce reliance on greenhouse-gas-intensive energy sources. The project was based on exploration of two RMG factory buildings in Dhaka. Using a whole building energy simulation program, we looked at the efficacy of green roofs, white roofs and shading in reducing temperatures and humidity on the factory floor. Using a climate chamber, we explored the impact of personal interventions such as individual fans and improved hydration regimes. Factory workers were interviewed. 

These strategies can achieve cooling of around 2oC and considerable improvements in thermal comfort (combining humidity and temperature). As such, they could delay the impacts of global warming, and the need to install energy-intensive cooling systems, well into the second half of the century.   

Jean Palutikof
Griffith University

Preparing our most at-risk communities for heatwaves: choosing and preparing cool spaces 

Sometimes people can’t be at home in a heatwave. Either their homes are not cool enough or safe enough, or they’re homeless, or they have errands and appointments which are unavoidable. People in these situations often go to places like shopping centres, libraries and pools to keep cool. But are there enough of these places and are they adequate for the most at-risk people in heatwaves? How do people find cool spaces and get there? How should they operate? 

We will discuss issues and learnings from a project in western and northern Melbourne suburbs, that has explored how a network of cool spaces could work. The project has two parts. The first part involved selecting and then assessing existing community buildings that could be used during heatwaves to provide short-term relief for people that can’t stay cool at home. The second part is ongoing and is exploring options for how these buildings could be upgraded and operated as a network of cool spaces. 

This presentation will share some of the challenges and benefits involved in selecting and assessing community buildings that could be considered as cool spaces, and the condition and upgrade requirements of those buildings. It will also share learnings about how such places could be operated, including some of the concerns, potential risks and some of the innovations that are emerging. We will also touch on the findings of a related project, which explored the challenges and requirements for upgrading and operating parks for community use in extreme heat. 
 

Shirley Diez, Program Manager Climate Change Adaptation, Greater Melbourne Region, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA), Victoria. 
Fran MacDonald, Executive Officer, Western Alliance for Greenhouse Action (WAGA), Melbourne, Victoria 

Assessing the efficacy of existing heat-related policies for Workers' Health and Safety in Australia

Workers in many industries are at high risk of heat-related injuries and illness due to exposure to weather conditions for extended periods of time. To protect the safety of workers from the impacts of heat and establish effective control measures at workplaces, it is important to evaluate the existing policies practiced in Australian workplaces. In this article, we have explored the existing policies and relevant documents of a large construction company and five of its subcontractors in Australia against the heat management framework provided by safe work Australia (SWA). The retrieved documents were analysed thematically using the framework analysis approach. The main guidance themes and categories were developed deductively based on guidelines provided by SWA for working in the heat. The retrieved documents were read thoroughly and the relevant data was populated into the matrix of our predefined framework of analysis. The data was interpreted and summarized. This review of existing policies suggests that the company and its sub-contractors have developed their hot weather policies. The policies advised on some administrative control measures, safe work practices for workers, use of personal protective equipment, and emergency response plan. The focus of the majority of policies is on administrative control measures for heat risk management, which may not be practicable at all times and are not a high level of health and safety control if implemented alone. The policies do not comprehensively cover some of the most important aspects of heat stress management such as consultation with workers and other stakeholders, risk assessment of heat hazards, promoting training and awareness programs among workers, and reviewing and evaluating control measures and heat stress incidents. It is important that we develop and implement comprehensive heat management policies at workplaces as we are transitioning to hotter and more intense climates. 

Syeda Fatima
The University of Adelaide

Process and practice for advancing climate risk management within government

When we talk about climate risk, several risk types are important to consider. Physical risks from changes to climate that relate to either acute shocks or chronic changes, and transition risks that arise from failure to act on societal changes to address climate change, such as changes in values and demand for products and services. There are four main typologies for defining how climate risk impacts service delivery for government: financial and investment risk; strategic and operational risk; reputational risk; and litigation risk. 

Identifying and managing the potential impacts of climate risk for government organisations is critical for ensuring the continuation of the delivery of government services and the protection of public assets. Identifying opportunities that can be seized from a changing climate is equally important.  

The Queensland Climate Ready Program (2018-2022) was a partnership project between the Department of Environment and Science and the Climate Ready Initiative at Griffith University. The program worked with six Queensland Government Departments to advance their: 

• Understanding of climate change risks and capacity to manage these. 
• Capability to deal with climate risks in a coordinated and consistent way. 
• Progress on managing priority climate risks. 

There are valuable experiences from a practical applied perspective that can be shared on ensuring agile and appropriate climate risk management action is taken and integrated across government organisations, so it becomes part of business as usual.  

Securing executive leadership support and having the right organisational governance in place are key to embedding climate risk across an organisation, through relevant strategic and operational responses, and assigning roles and responsibilities to manage climate risk. A climate ready government is one that fosters positive climate culture, resilience, leadership, innovation, and creativity, to make future-focused, science-informed, financially, and legally sound decisions to adapt and transition to climate change and the uncertainty it brings. 

Acknowledgements: Funding source for the Queensland Climate Ready Program was the Queensland Department of Environment and Science.  
 

Cheryl Briars,
Griffith University, Climate Ready Initiative  

Whose knowledge counts? Building capacity to address the vulnerability of council services to a changing climate. 

In 2021 the Queensland Climate Resilient Councils (QCRC) released their Draft Climate Risk Management Framework for local government. Sunshine Coast Council and Noosa Council received grant funding to pilot Phase 1 of the framework in partnership. The purpose of Phase 1 was to undertake a high-level first-pass multi-hazard climate risk assessment and establish a clear strategic approach for the councils to improve their climate risk management capability going forward. 

Research shows that knowledge and awareness are not the main determinants of behaviour change, and that supportive social networks and a strong sense of self-efficacy, along with other factors, are crucially important. To reflect this, participatory systems-based risk assessment approaches were chosen to support the building of capacity and buy-in across both organisations as a core part of the project. This involved the consultant team working with staff within and across service areas at multiple seniority levels in the organisation in several rounds of highly interactive sessions. 

The project revealed just how important collaborative risk assessment processes are for both the risk assessment itself, as well as for generating positive action. Staff have unique insight into how their services are delivered, in their region specifically, that make them vulnerable to the effects of climate-related hazards. This information can’t be gleaned from reports, databases, spatial datasets or external industry experts, and often relates to the unique features of council systems, structures, service models and decision-making processes that staff work with on a daily basis in delivering services in their distinctive contexts.  

The process allowed staff to identify ways in which they could control climate risks themselves through their work and generate creative practical solutions relevant to their specific circumstances. For both councils, the project has prompted staff to pursue climate risk in their own agendas in unexpected and exciting positive directions. 

This project was funded by a grant through the Queensland Climate Resilient Councils program, a joint initiative of the Local Government Association of Queensland and the Queensland State Government Department of Environment and Science. 

Ella Reeks (Alluvium Consulting), Rebecca Britton (Noosa Council), Gillian Smith (Sunshine Coast Council) 

Statistical methods to quantify the impact of climate change 
 

Climate change adaptation strategies rely on assessments of expected climate impacts and risks. Therefore, it is important to use suitable methodological approaches when analysing the potential impact of climate change projections. This presentation aims to provide recommendations on how best to use statistical methods to quantify climate impacts. 

We first compare what can be done with three types of data: cross-sectional, time series, and panel data. Panel data methods are usually preferred due to their strong identification properties. They allow one to estimate the impact of weather on an economic output, and in a subsequent step, to use these estimates to quantify the potential impact of climate change projections. We explain the advantages and potential use of this framework, as well as its challenges. These challenges include possible model specification issues and the way of dealing with the limitation of using short-run estimates of weather shocks (the model’s estimates) to quantify long-run impacts of changes in climates. 

Then, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of statistical methods to those of other methods, such as modern machine learning models, methods based on expert opinion, and bio-physical models. We argue that it is usually possible to get a better understanding of climate risks when combining studies that use a variety of these methods. 

German puga
University of Adelaide

“Save water!” won’t be enough as the climate changes: we need to transform our attitudes to water and social change 
 

Lynette will present a model of communication grounded in insights from linguistics, behaviour change, social change, and ethics—a model which formed the basis of recommendations she gave in -mid 2022 to the Water and Climate team at the then-Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning in Victoria, for the Water Cycle System Adaptation Action Plan.  

In her report she observed that, when governments and water sector agencies want to communicate about water, they rely on models of marketing communication and knowledge transfer to reach as many people as possible with a call for action or facts for ‘an informed choice’.  

These techniques work best when information and context are clear and unambiguous. The required action must be simple and produce an immediately observable and valuable change for the person. They depend on shared social norms, attitudes, and understandings of the problem and our personal agency. The call to action for us to “Save water!’ is a great example of this.  

But the kind of complex, purposeful social change, which adaptation necessarily is, requires a broader repertoire of attitudes, actions and behaviours in a wider range of contexts. Saving water won’t be enough. Rather than a consumer mindset, we need a richer narrative of water security. Instead of short-lived personal behaviours that make sense in a water crisis, we need new norms and self-sustaining, durable social change.  

How do we drive that kind of change?  

Two broad types of ‘intervention’ discussed in the behaviour change literature are communication and policy1. What’s missing is a realistic, effective and ethical model of communication to pair with the policy interventions. Lynette fills that gap with a model, which if put into practice, would reduce risks, avoid reproducing existing marginalisation2, and could be coordinated with policy interventions in a government-led program of change.  

Lynette Smith
Gramma Consulting

Coastal Adaptation at the Local Level: Evaluation of Queensland’s QCoast2100 Program  
 

Approximately 85 percent of Australians live on the coast. Climate change impacts such as rising sea levels and the increasing intensity of storms and cyclones pose growing risks to Australia’s lifestyle, environment, and economy. The level of vulnerability and risk is well-known; however, action to date has been limited by all levels of government. In 2016 Queensland government launched the QCoast2100 program which funds coastal local governments to prepare Coastal Hazard Adaptation Strategies (CHAS). This project examines local coastal adaptation through the QCoast2100 program.   

The research focuses on strategies for managing the climate change impacts in Australian coastal settlements and aims to answer the following questions: “What are local governments in Queensland doing to adapt to coastal flooding and sea-level rise? Are current initiatives sufficient to manage the risks? How can they be improved?” These questions are answered through an evaluation of 22 CHAS documents completed to date in terms of their inclusion of best practice coastal adaptation strategies and practices and 47 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders involved in strategy preparation and implementation. The interviews collected data on how sufficient these strategies are for adapting coastal hazards, barriers to preparing and implementing adaptation plans and what can be done to overcome them. 

Findings indicate that the program was invaluable in putting coastal hazards on the agenda of local governments. The documents produced are viewed as a starting point and provide an understanding of the coastal risks and timelines. In most cases, they are used as basis for funding applications for implementation of the adaptation actions identified. Without this additional funding most local governments do not have the necessary resources to implement the strategies. Majority of the councils do not have dedicated staff for this program and lack of capacity and expertise are also hampering the implementation.  

Funding sources: This project was funded through the Griffith University Young Researcher Development Fellowship Grant Program which was in turn funded by a grant from the Queensland Department of Environment and Science.

Aysin Dedekorkut-Howes,
Cities Research Institute, Griffith University 

Approaches for Setting Triggers and Thresholds to Manage Future Coastal Hazards 
 

Though many future climate risks we face are known, the magnitude and timing of those risks are not always necessarily clear. For coastal managers, uncertainty around future conditions such as climate change and impacts such as higher sea levels and changes in storm patterns, have seen recent shifts to employing adaptative approaches for coastal management.     

In New South Wales, local government through partnership with the state prepare and implement Coastal Management Programs (CMPs). The purpose of a CMP is to identify the relevant coastal managements issues and detail the actions required to address these issues in a strategic and coordinated way. 

Adaptive approaches in coastal management recognise that the coast is a dynamic environment, that uncertainty over the frequency, severity and location of coastal hazards will vary over time, and both available management options and tolerances to risks of these hazards may also change.  

Setting triggers and thresholds is an essential component of a successful adaptive approach to coastal management, as they signal both the timing of when management interventions should be implemented in the future as well as the type of interventions, even where several management options are still possible. 

Thresholds can be set as: (1) a single trigger point (for one-off intervention), (2) to define an overall risk tolerance level for intervention (a so-called ‘limit of acceptable change’) or (3) as part of a pathways approach.  A pathways approach is well suited to management of coastal hazards as it implies recognition of the potential for several interventions (e.g., trigger points) to implement appropriate management responses before an intolerable risk is reached. 

This presentation explores these approaches and guidance being developed by the NSW Government and coastal management consultants at BMT, with a particular focus on the use of triggers and thresholds for managing coastal hazards through CMPs. 

Greg Fisk, Global Lead (Climate Risk and Resilience), BMT Global 
Dr Marc Daley, Program Lead (Coastal Marine Coast Estuaries and Flood), Department of Planning and Environment, NSW Government  

Coastal Adaptation: the challenges and opportunities of progressive and extreme sea-level rise  

The IPCC in 2022 has assessed that sea-level rise poses a distinctive and severe adaptation challenge as it implies dealing with both progressive changes (eg, groundwater rise, squeeze on wetlands/marshes) and increased frequency and magnitude of extreme sea-level events and risk of coastal flooding. These impacts are occurring earlier where rates of relative sea-level rise are locally higher (land subsidence) and to higher levels if low-likelihood, high impact outcomes associated with collapsing ice sheets, occur and in areas that do not have high variability in sea levels and are therefore not adapted to higher water levels. We unpack the significance of this challenge for adaptation in coastal areas as the limits of our current and dominant response of structural protection becomes unaffordable in some regions, and the limits to accommodation and protect/advance adaptations become increasingly obvious, even if we mitigate climate change. The role that planned relocation or managed retreat will play is set out along with the opportunities for actions today that can ease this transition including the necessary institutional architecture and funding arrangements that can enable a just transition for those exposed and vulnerable.  Considering both short- and long-term adaptation needs beyond the end of this century can reduce adverse consequences and inequitable losses and damages to vulnerable people and communities and future generations and support adaptation in manageable steps so that every investments builds towards the long-term adaptation needs. 

Funding sources:
JH and RB were funded via the New Zealand Ministry of Research Science and Technology research programs: NZ SeaRise and Resilience to Nature’s Science Challenge; MH and JB were funded via their respective universities and MH by Deltares. 

Judy Lawrence1, Robert Bell2, Marjolijn Haasnoot3, Jonathan Boston4 
Te Herenga Waka, Victoria University of Wellington

Communicating extreme sea level estimates through the Canute 3 web portal.

The Canute 3 web tool provides estimates of the likelihood of extreme sea levels during this century. It takes into account sea level rise and the effects of tides, storm surges and wave setup. Canute 3 is a continuation of a previous version, Canute2, operated by the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC. Historically, the tool was only available to an expert userbase of coastal engineers and planners, who were trained in its use, and who were required to pass an online test before they could access it via a website. Previous iterations of the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub Oceans and Coast project supported updates to the tool, to make it open and easily accessible to everyone, and to provide a testbed to help communicate and synthesise new scientific datasets generated in the project. A successful outcome of this is that use of Canute 3 continues to expand. It is now used in universities as an undergraduate education tool as well as across its core user base. This talk will discuss our ongoing work in the current iteration of NESP to focus on maintaining the tool’s technical requirements, while at the same time distilling basic information for a wider audience looking into coastal adaptation. To improve accessibility and raise awareness to a wider group of coastal stakeholders, a knowledge broker team are facilitating engagement via channels such as targeted user discussion, webinars, and workshops to gain user feedback to further improve the tool. Based on core-user suggestions to-date, recent Canute updates include new features such as data of the highest predicted tide, which is sometimes used as an indicator of minor flooding. Also reprocessing of tide gauge with a decade more of observations now provides more robust estimates of extreme sea level likelihoods. We will explain why this data is critical for decision-making and demonstrate how this information could be used in the wider coastal adaptation community. 

Julian O’Grady, Kathleen McInnes, Xuebin Zhang, Helen Bloustein, Sarah Bassett, David Putland and Tahnee Burgess.  

Explaining the latest IPCC AR6 Sea-level Rise Projections. 
 

Sea-level rise as a consequence of global warming is a major concern for low-lying coastal communities across the world. In Australia, where over 80% of the population are concentrated along the coastal margin, populations, industries and valuable coastal environments are increasingly likely to experience hazards such as coastal inundation and erosion over coming decades driven by sea-level rise.  

Factors that affect global mean sea level are primarily governed by ocean mass changes due to addition of meltwater from land-based sources such as glaciers and the major ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica and ocean density changes which are driven mainly by temperature changes. Regional variations in sea level are caused by large scale atmospheric weather patterns, ocean currents and circulation, changes in the Earth’s rotation and gravity related to mass changes such as melting of polar Ice Sheets. Vertical land movement also affects relative sea level rise along coastal margins.   

With each IPCC assessment cycle, advances in sea level science are compiled, assessed and sea-level rise projections are updated accordingly. Estimates of the different contributing factors derived from climate and other models are combined and presented as a central estimate and uncertainty range for different greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the coming centuries. For risk-averse decision makers high end sea-level rise projections are also provided. These projections are best used to test the resilience of planned critical infrastructure to future sea-level rise. In this talk, the latest IPCC sea level rise projections will be presented and explained in the context of what has changed from previous projections including emission scenarios, the latest understanding of contributing processes such as Antarctic ice sheet dynamics and the factors contributing to regional variations in sea levels around Australia.  
 

Kathleen McInnes, Xuebin Zhang, John Church and Matt King  
CSIRO

Towards a more flood resilient future: Updating the climate change considerations in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff Guidelines

Recent severe flooding events in New South Wales and southeast Queensland have again emphasised the risks floods pose to our communities now and in the future. A warmer atmosphere is producing more intense rainfall events, which is expected to continue in the future according to research from the National Environmental Science Program’s Climate Systems Hub (2021-present) and the previous Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub (2015-21).  Up-to-date guidance on rainfall and runoff for engineering practitioners is essential to ensure that built environments can be resilient to our future climate. To achieve this, the Australian Government is working with flood modellers, climate scientists and industry stakeholders to update to the Interim Climate Change considerations, Chapter 6 of book 1 of the Australian Rainfall and Runoff: A Guide to Flood Estimation (Geoscience Australia, 2019).  

Led by the Department of Climate Change Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) in partnership with Engineers Australia, the update of the Guidance will be undertaken in collaboration with users and be based on the latest climate change science.  It is intended that the update will allow a more robust consideration of future flood risks based on projections of rainfall intensity and research on extreme rainfall events produced by low pressure systems and thunderstorms. Improving the capability for engineering practitioners to better account for the impacts of climate change in the design of climate-appropriate buildings and infrastructure will directly help to increase the climate and disaster resilience of Australia’s built environments.  

This presentation will include reflections on the collaborative approach between practitioners, scientists and other end users to scope the extent of the update.    

Funding: Work is supported through a grant from the National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA)  Disaster Risk Reduction Package. 
 

Leanne Wilkinson
Department of Climate Change Energy the Environment and Water

Designing for climate change – practical solutions for resilient assets  
 

The City of Melbourne is already experiencing climate change impacts predicted under 2030 worst-case scenario conditions. We know the assets we build today will need to withstand weather conditions we have never seen before. The challenge facing many of us, is how do we transition the knowledge that we need to do something into real action on the ground?  

To address this issue, many Councils and organisations have developed weighty asset design guidance books. However, in the landscape of digitalisation and emerging technologies, these books can go out of date almost as soon as they are published and sit on the physical or digital shelf with limited uptake.  

Councils and corporations develop strategies and targets relating to climate change, but these too can seem abstract and often fail to translate to tangible outcomes on a specific project.  

City of Melbourne has developed a set of materials to make understanding climate change risk, it’s applicability to a specific project and the relevant steps you can take to address your risk accessible and digestible. The innovative approach integrates climate risk information with best practice asset design advice from around the world in a dynamic, digital form. The outputs are three resources that do not tell you to build resilience into your assets, they show you what to do and how to do it.    

The tools allow users to: 

1. Scan for climate change hazards at a project site. 
2. Identify the organisation’s sustainability targets relevant to a specific asset type. 
3. Provide best practice design responses to address these hazards and achieve the targets. 

We have an opportunity in our asset design and development to prepare and evolve our cities to work with and not against our environment. Communicating this information and providing accessible solutions is key to our success.  

Lucy Packham
City of Melbourne

Heat and Electricity: An analysis of vulnerability and exposure 
 

Heatwaves are an enduring feature of Australia’s climate and have significant social, health (physical and mental), and economic impacts on the Australian community. The Australian Climate Service (ACS) is examining complex interacting risks of heat on health and the electricity sector.  

We present an initial national analysis of electricity network vulnerability and exposure to extreme heat to initiate a risk assessment, and to highlight opportunities for future work and areas of concern. 

The risk posed to an electricity network by extreme heat increases as an increasing proportion of the network's assets and infrastructure are exposed to heat, and this can be compounded by curtailed supply (e.g., lower thermal or solar efficiency) and elevated demand (e. g., due to increased use of air conditioning, reduced appliance efficiency).  

Risks to the electricity sector interact with other complex risks. For example, elements of the electricity sector are at higher risk of failure on high-heat days, during which heightened heat health risks caused higher reliance on the electricity sector. In consequence, heightened risks to the electricity sector – which underpin essential services – amplify heat health risks.  
 

N. Benger,2,3 A. Griesser,2,3 D. Hoffmann,2,3 D. McQueen,2,3 M. Black,2,3 E. Lede,2 J. Landsberg,2 

1 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia 
2 Australian Climate Service, Australia   
3 Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia 

Five steps towards resilience investment. Reflections on developing resilience investment cases in Port Adelaide Enfield.  
 

What would it take to enable investment that builds a positive future for communities under increasing climate risk?  

In 2020-22 a research project in Port Adelaide Enfield piloted a new approach to developing infrastructure investment cases. An intensive workshop process involving participants from across government and research explored how to develop investment opportunities that account for the complex and diverse effects of climate change on values, benefits, and risks.  This process revealed that resilience investment requires a set of coordinated changes across the investment system. These include developing the capability for, and resourcing of: regional, place-based, multi-hazard climate risk analysis; community deliberation on risk and value sharing principles that are embedded in visions of desirable regional futures; governance of cross-government climate-risk ownership and investment system innovation; establishing proponents and developers of place-based investment cases; and brokering multi-partner financing.  

Developing resilience investment involves governments, research organisations, and community groups in new roles and new ways of working across organisations and portfolios. Participative approaches to learning through pilot projects can help build the capability and understanding across the investment system that underpin these coordinated changes. In turn, leadership from across the investment system is required to foster these new ways of operating under climate change and provide support and legitimacy to these collaborative learning processes. 

In this seminar we will present the case study context, the approach taken to trialling new ways of assessing and building resilience investment cases in the PAE region, the progress made, and key lessons learned, and the implications for policy and research.   
 

Russell Gorddard1, Nic Messic2, Maggie Hine3, Russell Wise1 
1CSIRO Environment 
2Value Advisory Partners 
3City of Port Adelaide Enfield 

Climate Adaptation in infrastructure in South East Asia: Tools and case studies from integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change 
 

The Australian Governments’ Partnerships for Infrastructure (P4I) program partners with Southeast Asia to foster inclusive growth through sustainable infrastructure and integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change to support infrastructure investment decision making is a priority. P4I uses an innovative framework for integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change considerations across the investment portfolio supporting Southeast Asian governments infrastructure priorities.  The framework establishes the requirements for addressing and incorporating climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation and disaster risk reduction considerations in each project and allows for responses to be strongly tailored to the national and sector specific contexts.  

The tool supports the identification, scoping and resourcing of the actions necessary to integrate DRR and Climate Change within a P4I activity. The tool fills a unique gap in the infrastructure sector, providing the much needed ‘how’ for decision-makers and investors seeking to ‘green’ or ‘climate proof’ their investments and integrate DRR and climate adaptation principles. The DRRCC framework integrates and leverages the existing and specific tools to provide a cohesive process for addressing DRR, climate adaptation and climate mitigation. This presentation will share P4Is DRRCC framework and a number of case studies from it’s application on our program. These case studies will be confirmed closer to the time but will cover a range of topics tailored to the conference theme and may include; 

• Including green design, incorporating resilience into national sector strategies and green finance positioning for the multi-component Laos-Australia Connectivity Program 
• The incorporation of resilience principles and climate adaptation into the updated Cambodian Road Design Standards in partnership with AustRoads 
• Understanding disaster and climate risks and adapting designs in response in infrastructure project preparation and design 
• Building partnerships between Australian and South East Asian government agencies to support inclusive and resilient infrastructure decision making 

Liesl Keam
Partnership For Infrastructure

Intersections of climate-induced damages and losses, social resilience, and the importance of prioritising just responses to climate impacts for vulnerable communities – case studies from rural Fiji.  
 

Many Indigenous societies have developed very effective adaptive resilience strategies that have served them well for centuries, due in part to the rich traditions of sociocentric practices, and dissemination of traditional ecological knowledge. These strategies have enabled generations of people to cope with, adapt and overcome diverse forms of adversity. For many societies, particularly subsistence-based societies, climate change poses a newer threat: one that has rendered some traditional systems of adaptation partially ineffective as natural resources become less abundant and natural systems more unpredictable. As climate change continues to manifest as continued threats to human safety, and to fresh water, subsistence gardens, wild forest foods and fishery stocks, the need for external assistance for many rural communities around the world has become increasingly urgent.   

This study presents narratives compiled with three iTaukei Chiefdoms (vanua) located on two islands in Fiji, who are greatly affected by climate change. Of these communities, one vanua has been relocated with people still living in emergency tents two years later, whilst another has been living in a high-risk Red Zone for the last six years. In recent years, the continuous onslaught of damages and losses sustained from frequent cyclone events, and associated landslides and earthquakes have eroded these communities’ capacities to cope, adapt and transform as desired. In this article, the context for these adaptation frontiers are firmly anchored within subsistence and semi-subsistence based rural economies, which represents a large portion of the world’s population. Accordingly, this article aims to refocus attention on the topic of climate justice and the critically important need for the UNFCCC’s Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage to effectively support small island communities, like those featured in this study, to overcome the daily risks to their families’ lives and livelihoods. 

 

Lila Singh-Peterson a,b* 
aSchool of Agriculture and Environmental Science, University of Southern Queensland, Queensland, Australia 
bCentre for Heritage and Culture, University of Southern Queensland, Queensland, Australia 

Lila Singh-Peterson, 
School of Agriculture and Environmental Science, University of Southern Queensland, Brisbane, Australia 

Embedding Climate and Disaster Risk requirements in the Fijian Public Sector Investment Programme 

Fiji is exposed to a range of climate hazards, including cyclones, that can lead to the loss of human life, social dislocation, widespread damage across all sectors and long-term economic impacts. Climate change will increase the intensity of these events over future decades. 

Through Technical Assistance from the Asian Development Bank, Robert Turk worked with Fijian Ministry of Economy Budget and Planning Division from June 2021 to November 2022, to embed climate and disaster risk (CDR) requirements in the medium term fiscal allocation and annual project appraisal framework of the public sector investment programme (PSIP).  

The climate and disaster requirements were informed by a best practice review of existing approaches to CDR and gender friendly considerations for the design, planning, appraisal and selection of infrastructure projects. This information was supplemented with insights from meetings with representatives from over 20 Government Ministries and Departments, to gain a thorough appreciation for the current state of, and aspirations for, treatment of CDR in the project development cycle, including existing processes, supporting materials, governance structures and capacity levels. 

The CDR requirements were embedded as part of a revised three-stage submission process, comprising a screening paper, detailed appraisals paper and final budget submission, supported by a Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment Tool. The PSIP documentation comprised a Guidelines outlining procedural matters and a detailed User Manual, which provided step-by-step guidance, including capacity building material, suggested methodological approaches and references. 

Implementation of the CDR requirements was supported by a three half days training workshop with representatives from Ministry and Economy and three pilot ministries, who are required to implement the new PSIP guidelines in future budget submissions. The workshop included a mix of knowledge transfer, interactive activities, case studies and assisted pilot application of the new requirements on projects which attendees were preparing for budget consideration. 
 

Robert Turk, Nation Partners, Hannah Liddell, Nation Partners and Steve Goldfinch, Asian Development Bank 

Lesley Hughes is Professor Emerita in Biology and Pro-Chancellor at Macquarie University. Her principal research interests have been the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems and the implications for conservation.

She is a former Lead Author for the IPCC’s 4th and 5th Assessment Report, a former federal Climate Commissioner, a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, a Councillor with the Biodiversity Council of Australia, a Director of the Environmental Defenders Office, and a Councillor and Director of the Climate Council of Australia. She has recently been appointed as a member of the Climate Change Authority.

Jon Barnett is Professor and Australian Research Council Laureate Fellow in the School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Melbourne University. He is a political geographer whose research investigates social impacts and responses to environmental change. He has over twenty years of experience conducting field-based research in Australia, China, and several Pacific Island Countries. Jon's research has helped explain the impacts of climate change on cultures, food security, inequality, instability, migration, and water security, and ways in which adaptation can promote social justice and peace.

Jon leads the Australian Research Council funded Future Islands project, which seeks to provide new evidence and ideas to inform policies and practices that enable people to lead dignified lives on atoll islands long into the future.